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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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 from Jason
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USER DETAILS |
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| Screen Name | Jason |
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| Name | Jason |
| Location | Murrieta, , |
| Email | |
| Birthday | September 11, 1989 |
| Affiliation | Democratic |
| First Login | August 11, 2007 12:06am |
| Last Login | April 15, 2025 12:33pm |
| Predictions |
Points: 13430.6523
Predictions: 12143/13107 (92.65%)
Points Per: 13430.6523/13107 (1.02)
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| Emote Messages |
186
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| DISCUSSION |
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points)
 x3
| February 27, 2025 07:16pm |
LOL @ Glenn Youngkin absolutely killing Earle-Sears' chances here. The cuts are going to hit Virginia worse than any other state and its going to sink Republicans here.
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He wasn't going to repeat his miraculous win in 2020, where he was behind while the first 98 percent of the votes cast were counted, but then, incredibly, somehow surged to the lead during the tabulation of the final two percent.
Yeah, so whatever that was, it was't going to happen again.
Seat most likely goes GOP next year.
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I do not see this man passing an approval vote before the Senate.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points)
x3
| November 12, 2024 04:43pm |
Honestly feel that if Roy Cooper runs I'm willing to slot this into a Dem pickup. Potentially one of the few dems that could win this seat.
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RealClearPolitics indicates nine swing states.
I tend to group them together as the four Southerly ones (GA, NC, AZ, NV) and the five Northerly ones (PA, MI, WI, MN, NH).
I feel confident Trump will carry all four Southerly ones, which (assuming Trump also carries his District in Maine, and Kamala gets hers in Nebraska), results in just 268 EVs. Trump MUST also carry just one, but at least one, of the five Northerly states too.
Of course, this is just the pessimistic scenario.
The optimistic scenario for Trump looks better than it did the last two times. I never thought Trump had a shot in Virginia in 2016 or '20, but this time I think he just may, for example.
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This was a tough prediction to make but I’m going with an upset. Zuckerman isn’t exactly a powerhouse, he lost in a landslide for Governor in 2020 and the Republican nominee is a longterm former Democrat State Senator who has the endorsement of the most recent Dem Governor. I’ll put my prediction with Vermont being Vermont and showing its ability to split parties for Governor and Lieutenant Governor.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 9683.07 points)
x2
| October 30, 2024 04:48pm |
Just tabulated the totals of all my lean predictions and I come out with
Ds - 221
Rs - 214
This assumes a good night in New York and a mixed night in California.
I also have Ds picking up 2 seats in AZ (AZ-01 and AZ-06), 1 in IA, 1 in PA and retaining AK and ME-02.
I have the Rs picking up MI-7 and picking up CO-08 and WA-03
I'll probably revisit the close races on Friday night. The two seat pick up in AZ might be too rosy. And its probably more likely there will be more seats in CA that shift.
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| WFP:11714 | BigZuck08 ( 1151.87 points)
| October 20, 2024 02:49pm |
Happy birthday to the next president of the United States!
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| CPW:352 | Ralphie ( 17111.40 points)
x2
| October 08, 2024 11:14am |
Yeah, made the switch. Kent has been at least trying to not appear so extreme and I'd like to think someone as reasonable as MGP will win but this district has most of the parts of the state that has trended strongly Republican in the Trump era. Democrats trying to gerrymander their way back into two legislative swing districts here they've been losing regularly probably also isn't helping Perez at all.
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5686.17 points)
x2
| September 19, 2024 06:37pm |
Trafalgar about to drop a 54-41 Cruz poll
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 9683.07 points)
x2
| July 11, 2024 05:26pm |
I think I said this 6 years ago, but Ted is just not a likeable person. These polls are consistently close. He doesn't inspire ppl to come out and vote for him even in a State that has a theoretical Republican edge. Last time, he barely beat an incredible leftist running on an anti-gun platform for his Senate seat...in a State where getting your first gun most likely happens before you get your first car or your first kiss.
Alot has changed in Texas in 6 years and it hasn't gotten more Republican.
I'll go on record now to say that come the morning after election day I won't be terribly surprised if Allred just Ossoffed Texas.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 9683.07 points)
| October 12, 2023 10:11am |
Prediction. Scalise will NOT be Speaker.
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| I:1038 | WA Indy ( 1821.84 points)
| January 05, 2023 10:13am |
So, John James 3.0 v. Haley Stevens or Dana Nessel. I'll go slight D for now.
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| BEER:10271 | WSNJ ( 478.42 points)
| October 11, 2022 08:46am |
As the deadline to register to vote approaches I guess I'll do my yearly predictions.
Congress:
NJ01- Strong Norcross (D)
NJ02- Strong Van Drew (R)
NJ03- Lean Kim (D)
NJ04- Safe Smith (R) (1 pickup for GOP)
NJ05- Strong Gottheimer (D)
NJ06- Strong Pallone (D)
NJ07- Slight Kean (R)
NJ08- Safe Menendez (D)
NJ09- Strong Pascrell (D)
NJ10- Safe Payne (D)
NJ11- Lean Sherrill (D)
NJ12- Safe Watson-Coleman (D)
State Legislature:
Assembly 12- Safe Sauickie (R)
Senate 28- Safe Burgess (D)
County:
Atlantic:
Freeholder At-Large- Strong Gatto (R)
District 1- Strong Coursey (D)
District 4- Strong Dase (R)
Bergen:
Executive- Strong Tedesco (D)
Freeholder- Strong Amoroso (D), Ortiz (D), and Sullivan (D)
Burlington:
Sheriff- Lean Kostoplis (D)
Freeholder- Slight Eckel (D)
Camden:
Freeholder- Safe Rodriguez (D), and McDonnell (D)
Cape May:
Freeholder- Safe Hayes (R), and Bulakowski (R)
Cumberland
Freeholder- Slight Albrecht (R), and Barber (D)
Essex:
Executive- Safe DiVincenzo (D)
Gloucester:
Clerk: Slight Hogan (D)
Freeholder: Slight Parkradooni (R), and Wingate (R) (2 pickups for GOP)
Hunterdon:
Sheriff- Safe Brown (R)
Freeholder- Safe Kuhl (R), Lanza (R), and Rich (R)
Mercer:
Freeholder- Safe Melker (D), and Lewis (D)
Middlesex:
Sheriff- Safe Scott (D)
Freeholder- Safe McCullum (D), Kenny (D), and Azcona-Barber (D)
Monmouth:
Sheriff- Strong Golden (R)
Freeholder- Safe Arnone (R), and DiRocco (R)
Morris:
Freeholder- Strong Cabana (R), Myers (R), and Mastrangelo (R)
Ocean:
Sheriff- Safe Mastronardy (R)
Freeholder- Safe Kelly (R), and Haines (R)
Passaic:
Sheriff- Slight Berdnik (D)
Freeholder- Slight Duffy (D), and Cruz (R)
(1 pickup for GOP)
Salem:
Freeholder- Safe Timmerman (R), and Taylor (R) (1 GOP pickup)
Somerset:
Sheriff- Slight Russo (D)
Clerk- Slight Peter (D)
Freeholder- Slight Marano (D)
Sussex:
Sheriff- Safe Strada (R)
Freeholder- Safe Space (R), and Hayden (R)
Union:
Surrogate- Safe Hudak (D)
Freeholder- Granados (D), Kowalski (D), and Williams (D)
Warren:
Surrogate- Safe Doherty (R)
Freeholder- Safe Sarnoski (R)
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| I:1038 | WA Indy ( 1821.84 points)
| August 31, 2022 12:55pm |
Election fraud complaints are scheduled for 4:01pm today.
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CA Pol Junkie: This ballot measure is a good bellwether for the extent to which the Dobbs decision creates a voter backlash since it is expected that the greatest effect would be among suburban college educated voters. If the "No" side were to win here, it would be a bad sign for the GOP in November.
BrentinCO: The failure of this will only "embiggen" Dems to use the issue in the fall and probably scare quite a few Republicans.
More than scare, I'd say. The campaign will be abortion, abortion, abortion up and down the ballot. Scenarios like Governor O'Rourke, Senator Beasley, and Democrats expanding their House margin are looking alot more plausible now. We are truly in uncharted territory.
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RP: Wonder what Manchin will have to say about the nominee?
Collins and Murkowski will probably be on board with whoever Biden nominates, so Manchin won't be pivotal.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 9683.07 points)
| March 09, 2021 12:38pm |
Congratulations Republicans on your future Senate and Assembly majorities.
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| LBT:10808 | NJLBT ( 46.20 points)
x4
| September 20, 2020 03:34pm |
I actually believe Pallotta will win. This could quickly change.
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| I:9626 | Bojicat ( 947.07 points)
| July 10, 2018 01:05pm |
My prediction: Les Bleus sends Les Diables Rouges back to hell with a 3 to 1 massacre.
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| R:7114 | Kyle ( 706.96 points)
| June 06, 2018 07:29am |
A rising star female conservative likely to be defeated by a Nancy Pelosi supporting former Democrat. The perfect demonstration that Trump loyalty far outpaces conservatism in today’s Republican Party
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