Trafalgar about to drop a 54-41 Cruz poll

Wow Morning Consult - that was unexpected! Morning Consult has results favorable to Democrats, so don't expect other pollsters to agree. The trendline is nice though - hopefully that much is real.

Morning Consult has results favorable to Democrats, so don't expect other pollsters to agree. That's why the site gives their polls nearly a 5 point adjustment towards the Republicans in calculating the poll averages.

I wish it was true but the best it can get is perhaps a repeat of 2018. I don't see a scenario that Allred pulls it off unless it's a really really good night for Democrats and Texas is trending blue much more faster than I thought, as unlikeable as Cruz is.

I didn't realize Ted Brown had moved to Texas.

Need an Emerson Poll here. Need an Emerson Poll here. Seriously. I always go by what Emerson says. I've found them to be be the most accurate, usually. I just added a recent Emerson poll here. Very interesting results...

I've been saying this for a while, but I won't be surprised if we wake up the day after election day to find Allred as a Senator. People might say Texas is conservative and it is - but there are enough voters even in Texas that could be casting ballots on likeability over ideology. Cruz's favorable are very revealing and have never been great. If Cruz loses it will be because of a combo of the "perfect storm": - likeability - enough suburban GOP women voting on the abortion issue - increased urban turnout for Allred - favorable dynamics from the Presidential race

This generation of conservatives are not hellbent on racial demagoguery like the Southern Democrats up until the 1970s. Republicans for decades have been trying to build a biracial and multi-ethnic coalition of support for their agenda and for them, it's about the spirit of the individual opposed to the collective. Republicans for more than a century have tried to prove that they were the champions of equal opportunity and the bitterest foes of racial discrimination. They see people as individuals, not as members of a racial group, which is showing of their commitment to equal opportunity and equal protection of the laws. The authors of the 13th, 14th, and 15th amendments did not want a system of racial purity, they wanted the freed people to be treated as individuals, but white southerners weren't going to let them live in peace and thus, they glorified racial violence as a means from taking the region back against carpetbagger Republicans who's power was ensured by a posse army. Republicans only became more competitive in the south in the 1970s and it wasn't because of racial politics, it was because the South as a region had changed, it's values has since changed from championing racial politics to a conservatism that favors lower taxes, that is pro-gun, pro-life and for smaller government. As the south became less racist, it gradually became more Republican. If southern rednecks ditched the Democrats in 1964 because of a civil rights law, it is strange that they waited until the 1980s and early 1990s to do so. Things move slower in the south, but not that slow. History has moved on, like other regions in the country, unlike in the past, the south votes values, not skin color.

Texas has since become more competitive with the flux of people who have since moved to Texas from other states.

... the south votes values, not skin color. If Josh Stein gets over 55% of the vote this year I will agree with you.

Vote Republican: We are not hellbent on racial demagoguery

Republicans only became more competitive in the south in the 1970s and it wasn't because of racial politics, it was because the South as a region had changed, it's values has since changed from championing racial politics to a conservatism that favors lower taxes, that is pro-gun, pro-life and for smaller government. As the south became less racist, it gradually became more Republican. Ummm... no. The Republican Party took on the "Southern Strategy" to take the voters abandoned by Democrats when they embraced civil rights. It was mostly in dog whistle form before Trump, but it was and still is racial politics.

The south still remained a Democratic region until the 1990s, but it was no longer the solid south. Democrats still maintained control of state governments, but they weren't as dominant as they used to be, then their power slipped before their very eyes. The Democrats did not switch from being the bad guys to the good guys and the Republicans were never always the good guys, their strategies in winning support had evolved to what they deem a perfection. The notion that "racial politics benefits Republicans" is a misnomer. People vote values, not skin color. No matter what your reply is, I stand by my remarks.

Re: people vote values not skin color Right, they support institutional racism, no matter what color the person is who is carrying it out.

Probably not too controversial of an opinion, but I'm predicting a Cruz 5-6% victory here. Although Allred has had more ads on tv than any Democrat I've seen in recent memory, it's still inelastic Texas in a presidential year. 2022 showed that we're still not a swing state yet, although it's hard to compare this year to a midterm when so much has seemingly changed.

There are reasons to think Allred could win this. With abortion banned and state government indifferent to furious women, Texas is ripe for a massive Selzer Poll style gender gap. Allred is much more likeable than Cruz and might get crossover votes from Trump supporters. Still, my rule is that Texas will disappoint me until it surprises me. I would rather be either right or pleasantly surprised so I will have to stick with Slight Cruz.

I just don't understand why abortion would hurt Texas Republicans now but not in 2022 when the same ban was already in effect.

I can give a morbid answer to that question...... An abortion ban that kills women isn't that noticeable in a couple months, but Two Years makes it VERY NOTICABLE......