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  NC US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > North Carolina > Senate Class II
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline March 01, 2026 - 05:00pm Central
Polls Open November 03, 2026 - 05:30am Central
Polls Close November 03, 2026 - 06:30pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2027 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2033 - 12:00pm
Contributormg2685a
Last ModifiedCampari_007 November 17, 2024 02:26pm
Data Sources
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/03/2020
NameThomas "Thom" Tillis Votes2,665,598 (48.69%)
Term01/03/2021 - 01/03/2027 Margin95,633 (+1.75%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Mar 03, 2026 NC US Senate - D Primary
Cheri Beasley
Roy Cooper
J. Calvin "Cal" Cunningham
Donald G. "Don" Davis
Joan E. Higginbotham
Rachel H. Hunt
Jeff Jackson
Vi Alexander Lyles
Wiley Nickel
Braxton Winston II
Mar 03, 2026 NC US Senate - R Primary
Don Brown
Michele Morrow
Andy Nilsson
Lichia Sibhatu
Thomas "Thom" Tillis
Lara Trump
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
12/16/2023 04/08/2025
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Republican Primary Winner 4 2 ----
Democratic Primary Winner 6 1 ----
Leaning Call: Republican Primary Winner (50.00%)
Weighted Call: Democratic Primary Winner (51.35%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

11/26/2024 03/05/2025

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Republican Primary Winner Democratic Primary Winner  
Note: Candidates that appear in italics are speculative and have not officially announced
PartyRepublican Democratic  
Campaign Logo  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date -- --  
MATCHUP POLLS (3 from 2 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Public Policy Polling 
03/04/25-03/05/25
Thomas "Thom" Tillis - 43.00% -- Roy Cooper - 47.00% --
Victory Insights 
11/26/24-11/29/24
Thomas "Thom" Tillis - 44.10% -- Roy Cooper - 45.10% --
Victory Insights 
11/26/24-11/29/24
Lara Trump - 44.30% -- Roy Cooper - 45.50% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
NDP BigZuck08
 


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DISCUSSION
[View All
16
Previous Messages]
 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.6384 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 12:20:44 AM UTC0:00
Roy's the magic man.....

He (Like Stein and Jackson) have enough of a boring bland attitude to appeal to centrists but also have some rural populist attitudes that make them appeal to progressives.

Plus with Wiley's career would be OVER, bonus

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 01:25:00 AM UTC0:00
Tillis will probably retire, he has prostate cancer.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 02:11:29 AM UTC0:00
I think it's going to be outgoing Congressman Wiley Nickel

 
R:11448Maryland Republican93 ( 2177.9980 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 07:33:36 AM UTC0:00
Cooper does not guarantee a win by any stretch. He beat a polarizing Republican Governor in 2016 by appx. 10,000 votes and beat the Lieutenant Governor in 2020 by 4.5%. Respectable performance but after 4 years as Governor with the name recognition, not an earth shattering performance. Would he be a strong recruit - absolutely. Does Tillis have flaws to exploit - again, absolutely. But guaranteed winner? Absolutely not.

 
D:11204NCdem ( 1834.1178 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 04:54:50 PM UTC0:00
Cooper would be a guaranteed winner lol. Trust me.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.6384 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 05:12:34 PM UTC0:00
Cooper winning by 4.5% is a godsend in NC where most of the races are decided by 1 point or less.

Cooper could actually put the DNC money to use unlike Cal

 
NDP:11714BigZuck08 ( 1151.8744 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 05:18:58 PM UTC0:00
Good news is that I think Cooper is running here. And I'm pretty sure he's going to pull it off, not only because of his bipartisan appeal (which to be fair would be reduced because it's a senate election) but also because it's a Trump year in a state that elected all Democrats statewide with the exception of the presidential race this year.

 
D:10973Patrick ( 6.5582 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 10:12:31 PM UTC0:00
Trump should arrest Cooper before he can run that would troll the left so hard

 
For:10038Luzerne County Historian ( -154.3857 points)
Thu, November 14, 2024 04:19:38 AM UTC0:00
Prediction:
If Tillis is the nominee, he wins by a slight margin. Predication negated if Roy Cooper is the Dem nominee.

If Tillis gets primaried out/retires, Dem pickup.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Thu, November 14, 2024 05:10:35 AM UTC0:00
The midterm elections is always a cold shower for the president's party, usually results in them losing control of one or both chambers of Congress along with many seats.

I don't think Cooper wants to run for the U.S Senate, he enjoyed a decades long career in state politics and just wants to focus on the next chapter of his life.

 
LBT:11457The Fixer ( 50.8295 points)
Fri, March 7, 2025 10:28:16 PM UTC0:00
Luzerne County Historian: Prediction:
If Tillis is the nominee, he wins by a slight margin. Predication negated if Roy Cooper is the Dem nominee.

If Tillis gets primaried out/retires, Dem pickup.

I second this... Tillis will win by less than 1%.