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  WA District 03
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Washington > WA - District 03
OfficeHouse of Representatives
HonorificRepresentative - Abbr: Rep.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline May 17, 2024 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 05, 2024 - 09:00am Central
Polls Close November 05, 2024 - 10:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2027 - 12:00pm
Turnout 63.51% Total Population
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRalphie November 27, 2024 01:43pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description Incumbent (D) in 2020 Trump District
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/08/2022
NameMarie Gluesenkamp Perez Votes160,314 (50.14%)
Term01/03/2023 - 01/03/2025 Margin2,629 (+0.82%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Aug 06, 2024 WA District 03 - Blanket Primary
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
R 109,257D 97,274I 5,406N 186
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
06/24/2024 11/05/2024
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Joe Kent 8 ------
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 7 ------
Tossup 1 ------
Leaning Call: Joe Kent (50.00%)
Weighted Call: Joe Kent (55.11%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

06/11/2024 10/02/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Joe Kent (W) Write-In  
PartyDemocratic Republican Nonpartisan  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 215,177 (51.74%) 199,054 (47.86%) 1,673 (0.40%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -16,123 (-3.88%) -213,504 (-51.33%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 6/30 $4,139,258.50 6/30 $889,093.81 $--  
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]  
Entry Date 01/01/2023 01/01/2023 05/17/2024  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (2 from 1 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg43.66%-- 46.19%-- 0.00%--  
Public Policy Polling 
10/01/24-10/02/24
45.00% -- 46.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling 
06/11/24-06/12/24
45.00% -- 46.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 


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DISCUSSION
 
CPW:352Ralphie (17111.3965 points)
x2
Tue, October 8, 2024 05:14:01 PM UTC0:00
Yeah, made the switch. Kent has been at least trying to not appear so extreme and I'd like to think someone as reasonable as MGP will win but this district has most of the parts of the state that has trended strongly Republican in the Trump era. Democrats trying to gerrymander their way back into two legislative swing districts here they've been losing regularly probably also isn't helping Perez at all.

 
NDP:11714BigZuck08 ( 1151.8744 points)
Wed, October 9, 2024 12:50:00 PM UTC0:00
I contemplated it for a while, but I finally decided to take the plunge as well. Not a lot of attention has been focused on Kent and he has been at least coming off as not as extreme, and not to mention Trump on the ballot boosting Republican turnout.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Thu, November 7, 2024 03:38:21 AM UTC0:00
She'll probably end up winning. WA and CO were the only State's that voted more to the left compared to 2020.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Thu, November 7, 2024 08:12:18 AM UTC0:00
Trump is slightly winning this district.

 
NDP:11714BigZuck08 ( 1151.8744 points)
Thu, November 7, 2024 02:27:04 PM UTC0:00
One of the few seats I thought would be a GOP pickup......looks like a Dem hold. I mean I'm relieved that there's a bright spot here, but my prediction points aren't.

 
W:11230Arthur ( 520.6107 points)
Thu, November 7, 2024 03:11:52 PM UTC0:00
Shocking, the Republican candidate that massively underperformed in 2022 is also massively underperforming in 2024.

 
D:6086Jason (13430.6523 points)
Thu, November 7, 2024 03:19:20 PM UTC0:00
Low-hanging fruit for a GOP pickup in 2026 if they can stop pushing Kent into the runoff.

 
CPW:352Ralphie (17111.3965 points)
Thu, November 7, 2024 05:26:20 PM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: She'll probably end up winning. WA and CO were the only State's that voted more to the left compared to 2020.

I wish we had because of competent liberal governance instead of outright, irrational fear. Colorado proving itself superior once again.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Thu, November 7, 2024 10:29:21 PM UTC0:00
MGP could run for the U.S Senate when one of the two seats becomes open. But King County Democrats reject her because she's not that progressive. You can't be more moderate than her.

 
CPW:352Ralphie (17111.3965 points)
Thu, November 7, 2024 11:07:57 PM UTC0:00
I don't really see her as an ambitious politician type. She will hold this seat as long as able and/or desired and then will probably go back to her family and small business.

 
D:6149Campari_007 ( 1501.1602 points)
Fri, November 8, 2024 05:12:47 PM UTC0:00
Unless something changes I think this should be a message to Republicans (and no I don't think I consider Trump to be a far-right politician he's conservative but I think there's people way more conservative than him) Candidates on the Fringe of the party who pal around with militias or white supremacists don't work in most swing districts.

 
D:6149Campari_007 ( 1501.1602 points)
Sat, November 9, 2024 02:40:25 AM UTC0:00
[Link]

NBC calls it for Perez

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Sat, November 9, 2024 04:01:34 AM UTC0:00
Ralphie: I don't really see her as an ambitious politician type. She will hold this seat as long as able and/or desired and then will probably go back to her family and small business.

So you think she'll serve 3 or 4 terms in Congress and then retire ?.

 
D:6149Campari_007 ( 1501.1602 points)
Tue, November 12, 2024 01:05:00 AM UTC0:00
If the Republicans nominate someone who isn't an absolute nutbar they should be able to win this district. Perez has also established a moderate profile.

 
R:250Mr. Politics ( 190.1725 points)
Tue, November 12, 2024 01:57:21 AM UTC0:00
Campari_007: If the Republicans nominate someone who isn't an absolute nutbar they should be able to win this district. Perez has also established a moderate profile.
Agreed but that is a Grand Canyon sized "if".