| DISCUSSION |
| |
Candidates who dropped out should not be removed as they will still remain on CA ballot and likely receive votes.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Though Cerros dropped out of the race, his name will remain on the ballot so he should be included on this page as he will likely receive votes regardless.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Tennessee republicans made martyrs of three statehouse democrats, got them invited to the White House, got bad press nationally and now one of them is back in the house as a member already. What exactly did they accomplish other than making themselves look bad? I’ve got to think leadership quietly regrets all this.
|
Race
|
|
| |
?s=46&t=_weDgkjxK8nBX5X2pcB3Jg
It appears that State Sen. Bob Archuleta (D-Pico Rivera) has filed to run against Napolitano. It’s an odd decision as not much of his senate seat overlaps with CD31 with the exception of La Puente/Industry.
It’s also ironic that one of the oldest members of Congress (if not the oldest) at 86 is being challenged by one of the oldest state legislators (Archuleta is 77). It looks like area democrats who have been waiting to run here are getting frustrated with Napolitano’s unwillingness to retire. She has very little in her campaign coffers. I wonder if a serious run by Archuleta triggers one of the Rubio sisters to run, as they represent more of this area in the state house and are the obvious front runners for when the seat vacates.
|
Race
|
|
| |
This looks just like the sort of seat that would lead to a top two lock out of Republicans had one more strong/notable candidate in the race besides Baugh.
California being a Super Tuesday State with a potential DeSantis vs Trump primary and Biden getting coronated for renominating probably doesn’t help democrats either.
|
Race
|
|
| |
The sheer amount of democrats announcing this early for such a divided district makes me thing this seat may be a prime opportunity for republicans to mess with the system and lock democrats out of the general. Baugh is an extremely weak candidate and it surprising to see local republicans endorse him again but if a second candidate with strong name recognition jumps in, it could easily happen.
|
Race
|
|
| |
The first official flip indeed. it will be far from the last.
|
Race
|
|
| |
The northern half of this seat is wild.
|
Race
|
|
| |
I mean to be fair, nothing was stopping Jones from running against Maloney in his own district. Maloney isn’t some kind of electoral juggernaut, it would’ve been competitive. He made an extremely poorly thought out decision to carpetbag to NYC and it looks like he’ll likely be a one termer because of it.
|
Race
|
|
| |
?s=21
Dave McCormick has conceded to Oz.
|
Race
|
|
| |
The chair of the DCCC losing reelection to a DSA aligned freshman would be quite a highlight of the primary season come August. I think this may also be the first time two openly gay incumbents have run against eachother as well.
|
Race
|
|
| |
There must be sounds of Champagne popping at Kaptur campaign headquarters right now. Majewski is a January 6th riot attendee who was interviewed by Fox News wearing a “Q” T-Shirt while giving a tour of his home where he had his entire lawn spray painted as a Trump 2020 sign. The NRCC dropped the ball badly in this newly competitive seat.
|
Race
|
|
| |
[Link]
Democrats have lost their appeal to the states highest court seeking to keep their maps in place for the 2022 cycle. A special master appointed by the lower court will now be in charge of redrawing the maps with the goal being an august primary date. There’s going to be a lot of implications from this ruling that can’t be understated. Democrats could potentially lose 4-5 seats under this map compared to the old. Clean and compact lines in New York City could cause headaches for longtime machine democrats who had their districts drawn in a way that they could pick their primary electorates. It could not only leave Nicole Malliotakis with a Republican-leaning seat, but could also give republicans a second competitive NYC seat if a compact south Brooklyn seat is drawn around the Hasidic Jewish communities in Borough Park and Midwood/Gravesend (this has been proposed by multiple organizations that are submitting draft proposals to the special master). I wonder if any last minute retirements come out of this.
|
Container
|
|
| |
The most recent democratic entry (Rene Coronado) was a staffer for Blake Farenthold (R). R's probably put him up to siphon votes from Sanchez.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Another interesting one.
[Link]
|
Race
|
|
| |
National Democrats seem to be spending big money supporting a first time candidate in this race who is a virtual unknown. House Majority PAC has already made big ad reservations and Sen. Jeff Merkeley doesn’t seem to think it’s okay. It’s a very strange move given it’s an open democratic primary in a seat they’re favored to hold in November. Some articles have stated that Flynn didn’t vote in the 2020 election and generally hasn’t voted much over the years. He has connections to crypto but I’m not sure why the National democrats seem so invested in him.
[Link]
|
Race
|
|
| |
They should definitely get a second Democrat in from a strategic standpoint. Flores had been campaigning for this seat before redistricting finished and was canvassing in a lot of those northern red counties that got drawn out from the new TX34. If republicans really have the enthusiasm right now that people think they do, getting high turnout in those areas shouldn’t be extremely difficult in a special. If I remember correctly, Cameron and Hidalgo counties have really low turnout historically in off schedule elections which should help R’s.
|
Race
|
|
| |
I wouldn't be surprised if the NRCC tries to push them out somehow but with the deadline tomorrow it doesn't seem likely. I don't understand their logic. They all lost badly in the primary but somehow they think they'll do better than list time and totally not send a winnable race for their party to a time wasting runoff with the same GOP winner (Flores).
|
Race
|
|
| |
Jan Perry has recently gone on social media and called for suspending the gas tax. I wonder if this is a Kamlager vs Perry runoff if Perry can organize a coalition of moderate/populist dems and republicans to win. I just don't know if enough are in this seat to do that. Mid-City and Culver City are quite liberal and Perry has been out of office for a while but it could get interesting in November if it's D vs D.
|
Race
|
|
| |
I've always been fascinated by the fact this used to be a competitive district for Republicans as recently as 2000 (well that's not that recent anymore I guess). Pasadena is one of the more unique parts of Los Angeles County. Does anyone know of any websites, etc. that have precinct data or votes by locality for this race? Unfortunately L.A County's website only goes back to 2007 for the "vote by community" files but if anyone has any other ideas or ways to obtain it, I'd love to know. If I had to guess I'd say Rogan carried San Marino, La Canada Flintridge and Glendale and Schiff took all the rest (Pasadena for sure).
|
Race
|
|
| |
Clarifying question - if a candidate gets 50%+ in this race, do they win? Or does it just got to a top-two runoff anyways? Not sure how this one works.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Not sure if the commission even realized they did this (they were a total mess drawing the maps over zoom daily) but they actually put a few thousand voters in Riverside County in this seat by putting a slice of Corona in the district. The line drawers probably confused it for being part of Yorba Linda. Funny enough in an extremely close race (likely in a race down the line from 2022) this could net the GOP a couple thousand extra votes as those precincts are ruby red.
|
Race
|
|
| |
This page should be edited/deleted as this runoff will not occur. Self is now the nominee and should be on the main general election page.
|
Race
|
|
| |
The Republican field for this light blue seat is more impressive than the Republican primary field in a lot of tossup seat races at the moment. 2022 sleeper race? Republicans are bound to have one seat that’s their “Oklahoma 05” of the midterm cycle.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Gov. Kathy Hochul signed the new maps into law on February 3rd. They are now official barring a successful lawsuit, which doesn't seem likely. Shapefiles for the new districts can be found here.
[Link]
|
Container
|
|
|
