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OH District 09
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> United States > Ohio > OH - District 09
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| Office | |
| Type | General Election |
| Filing Deadline | June 01, 2022 - 12:00pm |
| Polls Open | November 08, 2022 - 05:30am |
| Polls Close | November 08, 2022 - 06:30pm |
| Term Start | January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm |
| Term End | January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm |
| Contributor | Mr. Matt |
| Last Modified | NCdem January 04, 2024 12:38pm |
| Data Sources | [Link] |
| Description | Redistricting Info:
Politico: Trump +2.8
538.com: Republicans +6
Ballotpedia 2022 Battleground District [Link] |
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COUNTY-LEVEL RESULTS |
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| Date |
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| DISCUSSION |
| [View Previous Messages In This Discussion (9 Previous)] |
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There must be sounds of Champagne popping at Kaptur campaign headquarters right now. Majewski is a January 6th riot attendee who was interviewed by Fox News wearing a “Q” T-Shirt while giving a tour of his home where he had his entire lawn spray painted as a Trump 2020 sign. The NRCC dropped the ball badly in this newly competitive seat.
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5686.17 points) | May 04, 2022 01:14am |
this race might be a test of forecasters whose forecasts are based on the Biden/Trump result of a district
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5686.17 points) | May 04, 2022 01:19pm |
Majewski is getting covered a bit by political types today. I suspect that this outcome depends on how much Kaptur can get for being known in the Toledo market for 40 years.
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| D:6454 | Mr. Matt ( 2525.09 points) | May 04, 2022 01:53pm |
She is known for defeating Republican kooks in the past (Joe the Plumber, the Nazi uniform guy)
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 9683.07 points) | May 04, 2022 03:38pm |
This, accoring to politico, is a Trump +2.8 district. This is going to be a very tough race for her. Still I picked her.
It's cliche....but these marginals seem to be very dependent on turn-out. Her incumbency might be a minor advantage. Over the next couple months we should probably get a better sense of how Roe is going to impact races.
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5686.17 points) | May 04, 2022 09:30pm |
the Ohio turnout dynamic might have been a little more favorable to Ds if DeWine and Dolan won and a bunch of rural Rs were less enthusiastic.
Instead, the people who aren't into DeWine probably gave Vance his best margins.
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NRCC cancelled ad buys for Majewski after he was exposed as lying about having served in Afghanistan. [Link]
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 13430.65 points) | November 09, 2022 08:53am |
Low-hanging fruit opportunity for the Republicans in 2024, assuming they can find a candidate who doesn't run on stolen valor.
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5686.17 points) | November 09, 2022 06:39pm |
Ohio gets another redistricting round soon enough so it might be hard to get the right combo of non-Lucas counties to try and cancel out Kaptur in Lucas.
I suspect some viable Rs are more inclined to wait out Kaptur, who's 76.
But even with the subpar R here, a lot of the new turf was areas that would be familiar with Kaptur because they get TV from Toledo. So the redistricting would need to go into the parts of Ohio that get TV from Fort Wayne to find some people in NW Ohio who don't know Marcy Kaptur.
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150,655 (56.63%)