|
|
"A collaborative political resource." |
TX District 34 - Special Election
|
| Parents |
> United States > Texas > TX - District 34
|
| Office | |
| Type | Special Election |
| Filing Deadline | April 13, 2022 - 12:00pm |
| Polls Open | June 14, 2022 - 07:00am |
| Polls Close | June 14, 2022 - 07:00pm |
| Term Start | June 21, 2022 - 12:00pm |
| Term End | January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm |
| Contributor | RBH |
| Last Modified | RBH June 29, 2022 12:58pm |
| Data Sources | [Link]
[Link] |
| Description | To fill the seat vacated by the resignation of Filemon Vela.
If no candidate wins a majority in this election, "the runoff election would likely be held in August 2022" - [Link] |
|
 |
COUNTY-LEVEL RESULTS |
|
|
|
|
| Date |
Category |
Headline |
Article |
Contributor |
| DISCUSSION |
| [View Previous Messages In This Discussion (11 Previous)] |
| |
I wouldn't be surprised if the NRCC tries to push them out somehow but with the deadline tomorrow it doesn't seem likely. I don't understand their logic. They all lost badly in the primary but somehow they think they'll do better than list time and totally not send a winnable race for their party to a time wasting runoff with the same GOP winner (Flores).
|
|
 |
| D:1989 | RBH ( 5686.17 points) | April 12, 2022 10:01pm |
the 2020 Congressional result in the 5 counties that stay in the 34th: Vela 96k, Gonzales 57k
the 2020 Congressional result in the counties that are leaving the 34th: Gonzales 27k, Vela 16k
So Republicans sorta need the counties north of Kingsville to step up for an emergency special election. Jim Wells/San Patricio/Bee Counties get TV from Corpus Christi and the rest from San Antonio.
The higher the % of voters in this election from Cameron/Hidalgo/Kenedy/Kleberg/Willacy counties (which are staying in TX34), the better it likely is for Democrats.
It'd probably be easier for Republicans to get a second Democrat into this race than to force out the extra Republicans. It means that they could keep Sanchez below a majority and have the runoff in August.
|
|
| |
They should definitely get a second Democrat in from a strategic standpoint. Flores had been campaigning for this seat before redistricting finished and was canvassing in a lot of those northern red counties that got drawn out from the new TX34. If republicans really have the enthusiasm right now that people think they do, getting high turnout in those areas shouldn’t be extremely difficult in a special. If I remember correctly, Cameron and Hidalgo counties have really low turnout historically in off schedule elections which should help R’s.
|
|
| |
| D:1989 | RBH ( 5686.17 points) | April 14, 2022 05:46pm |
Two Ds and Two Rs which likely means the likelihood of an outright Dem win in June is gone but if the Rs in South Texas are as strong as hyped, they could pull it off.
So adding a poll question. The reason why I think the "better" outcome might be in question is that the runoff is gonna be closer to the election with more people paying attention to politics than if Flores won outright in June.
| What would be a better outcome for Rs? |
| Winning outright in June |
3 (75%) |
| Winning a runoff in August |
1 (25%) |
4 Votes Cast
|
| Polls Close April 21, 2022 12:00am |
|
|
| |
The most recent democratic entry (Rene Coronado) was a staffer for Blake Farenthold (R). R's probably put him up to siphon votes from Sanchez.
|
|
 |
| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 9683.07 points) | June 14, 2022 09:56pm |
Flores wins. This is a Biden +4 district (old lines) and will be Biden +15 (new lines) in the fall election. So the win could be short lived for Flores.
|
|
 |
This is a Biden +4 district (old lines) and will be Biden +15 (new lines) in the fall election. So the win could be short lived for Flores.
They gotta bring more affluent White people into the district, so that Democrats can still win.
|
|
|
|
14,799 (50.91%)