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I struggle with the answer to this. I honestly believe Hogan would win a primary, for simply there’s nobody with higher name recognition than him. There was a poll several months back that had Hogan beating Van Hollen by about eight points. In a Biden midterm, depending on how things shape up, I could see him with a path to victory, a very narrow path, but a path nonetheless. If he ran, it would certainly force national Democrats to spend money.
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I marked Graham as out [Link]
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So what do people think here? Since 2016, the House margins have been getting smaller and smaller. I still don’t see R’s winning but I could see this becoming interesting.
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So of the candidates above, with Schulz in, I can’t imagine Shank, Peters or Haddaway run. Harris isn’t viable statewide and Jennings seems content on staying in the legislature and moving to Congress one day. Steele wouldn’t be viable in a primary at all. Looks like Schulz is the likely nominee.
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Looks like the field is coming around to Schulz. [Link]
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Same here - given Oberweis baggage, Sue Rezin probably would have won by a couple points. Still amazes me given my predictions before the election of how close Republicans got to winning the house back. A few better primary choices and filling recruitment failures and Kevin McCarthy would be Speaker right now.
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Looking at this race, I have to wonder if Evelyn Sanguinetti stayed in the race and her campaign given a chance to takeoff if she could’ve made this race even closer or possibly even pulled the upset. I’m still shocked that Ives got within seven points of winning. She was a terrible fit for this district.
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Voted out of office last Tuesday in an upset after 16 years. Article makes it sound like his opponent was an Independent but ran due to opposition to COVID-19 mask restrictions. [Link]
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Impressive recruit for the NRCC. Redistricting is unlikely to change this district too much.
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Interesting that without him, Kathy Hochul may never have gone to Congress and probably wouldn’t be Governor in waiting if Cuomo decides to resign.
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Poll won’t load either but I’ll go with Perdue/Loeffler
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Died from COVID [Link]
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Speaking of Grassley, it looks like someone registered Ashley Hinson for Senate too. Part of me is skeptical it was her campaign tho, since her current website is just her name dot com.
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Coming off what appears to be a Republican sweep of the Supreme Court races, someone registered quite a few domains for Anita Earls.
?s=21
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So it appears this race is tied
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Kean concedes and won’t seek a recount. Republican expect him to seek a rematch in 2022, and Kean gets to appoint 2 members to the redistricting committee. [Link]
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GOP Pick up ?s=21
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Republican pick-up [Link]
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I have to say the back in the summer I really thought Democrats would sweep all three of these seats, considering Republicans had to get a write in for the third seat. I will say that I was surprised at how well Lea Marquez Peterson did in her run for Congress two years ago; and now it looks like given the trajectory of votes recently, she has a good chance of finishing first, she may be someone to look out for in the future for a different statewide position.
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I went to look at the county board of elections expecting Republicans to have suffered a disappointing night here, only to be surprised that they held their own, and even managed to beat a democratic incumbent. Just another sign that this was not an anti-Republican election, this was an anti-Trump election.
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Republican pickup ?s=19
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I’m having a tough time imagining a Republican Senate confirming Bernie Sanders. I’m even having a hard time seeing a 50-50 Senate confirming - Manchin has been pretty vocal about the party moving too far left and I could see him voting against Sanders for Labor.
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I see a prediction was made for Katie Porter. I think that’s one name who can be crossed off. She was held to an unconvincing win against a poor opponent who had no outside help and raised hardly any money. I would suspect given how narrow the Democrats majority will be that there is much of an appetite to risk losing another seat in a Special Election, just like the election for Katie Hill’s seat.
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Seemed like a good night for New Hampshire Republicans at the state level. Flipped the House of Representatives and the State Senate and looks like they got a 4-1 majority on the Executive Council.
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Who is calling these races?
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