Same here - given Oberweis baggage, Sue Rezin probably would have won by a couple points. Still amazes me given my predictions before the election of how close Republicans got to winning the house back. A few better primary choices and filling recruitment failures and Kevin McCarthy would be Speaker right now.

Here's a multi-tiered prediction: Oberweiss wins this race next year. The GOP nominee wins the White House in 2024. Oberweiss loses this seat in 2026. I'm pretty sure I will remember to check this in five-and-a-half years, so I can then crow about being right.

I'd imagine Oberweiss is gonna run for this seat again next year, and finally achieve his lifelong dream of winning an office more substantial than state legislator. I feel like I've been waiting for this to happen almost as long as he has. I'd agree if Democrats didn't control redistricting. I suspect that underwood might be getting help from Democrats to hold this seat.