|
|
"A collaborative political resource." |
Maryland Republican93
 |
USER DETAILS |
|
|
| Screen Name | Maryland Republican93 |
|
| Name | |
| Location | , , |
| Email | |
| Birthday | September 15, 1993 |
| Affiliation | Republican |
| First Login | October 11, 2022 06:37pm |
| Last Login | April 02, 2025 04:19pm |
| Predictions |
Points: 2177.9980
Predictions: 1316/1396 (94.27%)
Points Per: 2177.9980/1396 (1.56)
|
| Messages Posted |
38
|
| DISCUSSION |
| |
This race to me could very well be one of the most consequential for quite a while.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Looking back on this race and imagining what could have been. I believe had Gwen Graham won the nomination, given 2018 was the year of women getting elected across the country, she would have defeated DeSantis and probably dragged Nelson over the finish line too in the Senate race. A Governor Graham would have at least had some say in a more “neutral” congressional map and the state Supreme Court would certainly be different. Would she have won re-election in 2022? I’m unsure but would probably say no, however it would not have been a 2022 red tsunami. What would Florida look like politically today had that happened? I’m sure Florida would have continued to move right, but without the DeSantis ground game and operation, who knows.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Republican flip [Link]
|
Race
|
|
| |
A 30,000 vote margin heading to a recount? Sure weird things have happened, but realistically this isn’t changing. The Minnesota 2008 Senate race or the Virginia 2013 AG race changed a few vote totals here or there when the margin was under 1,000 votes, Casey isn’t coming back.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Fun fact: every election since 2004, her margins have consistently decreased, almost by half each cycle. In 2004, she won by over 14 points. This year, 2 points.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Cooper does not guarantee a win by any stretch. He beat a polarizing Republican Governor in 2016 by appx. 10,000 votes and beat the Lieutenant Governor in 2020 by 4.5%. Respectable performance but after 4 years as Governor with the name recognition, not an earth shattering performance. Would he be a strong recruit - absolutely. Does Tillis have flaws to exploit - again, absolutely. But guaranteed winner? Absolutely not.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Just a feeling, but should Costa retire in the next cycle or two, I think this seat flips. Hell, it may very well flip even if he runs again. Those margins keep getting smaller and smaller.
|
Race
|
|
| |
One thing I’m personally fascinated by is “what if”. Republicans getting to 53 is a good night, there majority does not need to theoretically be dictated by Collins and Murkowski. But Republicans came very close to a senate majority not seen since Obama 08. Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona get you to 57. I’m going to be generous and throw Maryland into that and say number 58 - a well known Maryland political expert made the case outlining that had Democrats not spent tens of millions of dollars attacking Hogan, Hogan very well could have prevailed. Personally, a 57-58 seat Republican Majority would be very difficult to dislodge anytime soon. Hell, a 53 seat Republican majority is going to be difficult to dislodge. Looking at 2026, both sides have a few pickup potentials. I think after Tuesday night, Democrats can write off Texas. Personally, I would take Iowa off the table too - even as a few on here got so excited about Iowa flipping. What does that leave… North Carolina and Maine. Republicans have a few pickup potentials too.. Georgia if Kemp runs, I would actually initially mark him the slightest favorite. Michigan, where the 2018 race against Stabenow was highly competitive for a blue wave. New Hampshire would be nice if Sununu ran.
And of course, both sides will probably make a seat competitive that no one is looking at right now. Who will be the 2026 Republican Senator to struggle against an Independent?
2024 is over - now I’m excited for 2026! :)
|
Race
|
|
| |
R Pickup
|
Race
|
|
| |
R:11448 Maryland Republican93 ( 1181.7523 points) " Sat, November 2, 2024 11:32:27 PM UTC-6:00
Polls can be wrong and I guess one has to weigh how much stock we put in a given poll. Sure Selzer has Harris +3, but Emerson has Trump +9-10. I have respect in both firms, but fundamentals and all tell me this race is much closer to Emerson’s number. Zero attention from either Trump or Harris. If I’m wrong, so be it. But I have this race is Safely Trump and the Selzer poll will not convince me otherwise.
I had to go back to the 2018 Governors race to check my prediction, I was certainly in the minority on this site keeping my prediction for Reynolds. I’ll trust my instincts again! :)
|
Race
|
|
| |
Can someone explain why Tlaib is marked down as an anti-endorsement for Trump? In what universe would she be expected to endorse Trump? Should we mark every Democrat officeholder as anti-Trump and every Republican officeholder as anti-Harris?
Isn’t this the slippery slope that was warned about. This anti endorsement seems ridiculous.
|
Race
|
|
| |
This was a tough prediction to make but I’m going with an upset. Zuckerman isn’t exactly a powerhouse, he lost in a landslide for Governor in 2020 and the Republican nominee is a longterm former Democrat State Senator who has the endorsement of the most recent Dem Governor. I’ll put my prediction with Vermont being Vermont and showing its ability to split parties for Governor and Lieutenant Governor.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Same here Brent. My prediction was from April of 2023… I guess the numbers changed during the redistricting and I never picked up on it.
|
Race
|
|
| |
BrentinCO - thank you. I was one of them and it certainly was an accident. I haven’t gone through yet to check for errors on my part, I usually do the week before. Thanks for catching this one!
|
Race
|
|
| |
I would agree. Keep the Osborn endorsement but delete the other two. He’s technically an independent so I think it’s appropriate. The other two, it’s a D endorsing a D, nothing unexpected.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Has pancreatic cancer
?s=46&t=lGNx2caSRT0L123cN0vLWA
|
Candidate
|
|
| |
Like Pennsylvania, Maryland is a closed primary state. I would expect Haley to get around 25% of the vote, perhaps even higher. Haley may actually be able to win a congressional district or two, the 3rd which is Howard and Anne Arundel counties (where trump is radioactive even among Republicans) and the 8th (Jamie Raskin’s Montgomery County district. If Trump is losing counties to Haley, which is possible, look at Howard, Anne Arundel and Montgomery. I doubt he will lose any, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost one of those.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Harris should still win and probably won’t be too close, but Bruneau is giving Harris a run for his money. Harris has never seemed to fully lock down this district and I wonder if a stronger Republican could have taken him out this year. Look at Cecil County; over 2,000 registered Democrats have switched to Republican to vote against the Republican Cecil County Executive - since the Republican Primary will all but determine the winner in this red county. Those same voters will almost certainly be voting against Harris, who is backing that county executive. Cecil County is also just one of two counties in Maryland (the other being insanely red but very small Garrett County) where more Republicans than Democrats have requested and returned mail-in ballots. I say this not because I expect Harris to lose, but I will be interested if he loses Cecil County, and possibly a random county on the shore too.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Brandon Scott is getting positive press with his handling of the Key Bridge collapse. However, with Vignarajah out and backing Dixon, tight race but I’ll give the edge at this moment to Dixon. Crime and safety is a big campaign issue. The new States Attorney, Ivan Bates, endorsed Dixon. His endorsement is being featured in a TV ad running consistently where he says “he isn’t looking at the past, but looking toward the future”. I was surprised to see Senator Jill Carter backing Dixon, Carter is a strong criminal Justice reform backer and Dixon is running as the tough on crime candidate. Dixon has narrowly lost two comebacks for this job, I think the third time may be the charm.
|
Race
|
|
| |
Looks like having every Dem in the state practically backing you may just beat out unlimited money. I still think Trone can pull this out but I have no doubt Angela Alsobrooks has all the momentum right now. I’m not even going to try to make a prediction on this one. Who can get their base out (Montgomery vs Prince George’s Counties) and what does the possible of increased turnout in Baltimore do?
|
Race
|
|
| |
Two polls now show Hogan trailing by 10, while last month a poll showed Hogan up 15+. My belief on the ground is the truth is in the middle. What I’ve heard from a friend with inside to the MDGOP is Hogan’s internals are close to the latter poll, not the polls of the past few days. Both polls tested the democratic primary and the general, my guess is if you are answering the democratic primary question, you probably aren’t likely voting for Hogan in November. Anecdotally, in heavily Republican Harford County, I know more Biden voters who are going to vote for Hogan in November, particularly if Angela Alsobrooks is the nominee. I hear that a lot, mixed with if it’s Hogan vs Trone, more hesitancy before answering. Maryland is a deep blue state, but Hogan will certainly keep this interesting whether he wins or not in November.
|
Race
|
|
| |
No longer a tie, Low advances to second spot by 5 votes
[Link]
|
Race
|
|
| |
Good luck! Safe travels.
|
User
|
|
| |
Nope, not this year. :)
|
Candidate
|
|
| |
Check mark given by VPAP. They have been great this year, so I’ll give it the benefit with the call. With that, Loudoun County Republicans had a great night.
|
Race
|
|
|
|
|
