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  PA US Senate
  RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Pennsylvania > Senate Class I
Office
TypeGeneral Election
Filing Deadline 00, 0000 - 12:00am
Polls Open November 05, 2024 - 06:00am
Polls Close November 05, 2024 - 07:00pm
Term Start January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2031 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last Modifiedev December 05, 2024 07:32am
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
PartyDemocratic Won11/06/2018
NameBob Casey Jr. Votes2,792,437 (55.74%)
Term01/03/2019 - 01/03/2025 Margin657,589 (+13.13%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Apr 23, 2024 PA US Senate - D Primary Bob Casey Jr.
Apr 23, 2024 PA US Senate - R Primary David H. McCormick
COUNTY-LEVEL RESULTS
KEY RACE? 10.0000000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Bob Casey Jr.
Strong 4
Lean 10
Slight 9
David H. McCormick
Slight 2
Tossup
Slight 1
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH

03/27/2023 11/04/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name David H. McCormick (I) Bob Casey Jr. John Thomas Leila Hazou Marty Selker (W) Quincy Magee (W) Erik Messina
PartyRepublican Democratic Libertarian Green Constitution Independent American Solidarity
Votes3,399,295 (48.82%) 3,384,180 (48.60%) 89,653 (1.29%) 66,388 (0.95%) 23,621 (0.34%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -15,115 (-0.22%) -3,309,642 (-47.53%) -3,332,907 (-47.87%) -3,375,674 (-48.48%) -3,399,295 (-48.82%) -3,399,295 (-48.82%)
Predict Avg.45.00% 54.00% 1.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Finances$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
MATCHUP POLLS
AtlasIntel 
11/03-11/04
46.50% (-0.1) 49.20% (+0.5) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Survation 
11/01-11/04
44.70% (+0.0) 52.90% (+0.0) 1.10% (+0.0) 0.80% (+0.0) 0.60% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Trafalgar Group 
11/01-11/03
47.40% (+0.2) 45.90% (-0.9) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
AtlasIntel 
11/01-11/02
46.60% (+0.9) 48.70% (-0.6) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
InsiderAdvantage 
11/01-11/02
47.00% (+0.0) 48.00% (+1.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Siena Research Institute 
10/29-11/02
45.00% (+1.0) 50.00% (+2.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
LBT Michael Rectenwald [L]
W Arthur
I George A. D. Santos [L]
D Peter R. Deutsch [L]
NDP BigZuck08
WASH Pennsylvanian
LBR Old LW
For Luzerne County Historian
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (W) Ved Dookhun (W) Cory Widmann
PartySocialist Workers Independent Republican
Votes0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)
Margin-3,399,295 (-48.82%) -3,399,295 (-48.82%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00%
Finances$0.00 $0.00
MATCHUP POLLS
AtlasIntel 
11/03-11/04
0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Survation 
11/01-11/04
0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Trafalgar Group 
11/01-11/03
0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
AtlasIntel 
11/01-11/02
0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
InsiderAdvantage 
11/01-11/02
0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Siena Research Institute 
10/29-11/02
0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor

DISCUSSION
 
R:11448Maryland Republican93 ( 2178.00 points)November 13, 2024 08:00pm
A 30,000 vote margin heading to a recount? Sure weird things have happened, but realistically this isn’t changing. The Minnesota 2008 Senate race or the Virginia 2013 AG race changed a few vote totals here or there when the margin was under 1,000 votes, Casey isn’t coming back.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.88 points)November 13, 2024 08:13pm
With or without Pennsylvania, Republicans will be the majority, but it would be nice for them to have this win. Fingers crossed.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.88 points)November 13, 2024 08:40pm
Maryland Republican93: A 30,000 vote margin heading to a recount? Sure weird things have happened, but realistically this isn’t changing. The Minnesota 2008 Senate race or the Virginia 2013 AG race changed a few vote totals here or there when the margin was under 1,000 votes, Casey isn’t coming back.

They're still counting votes and there's the possibly of there being enough to put the senator on top.

 
WASH:8766Pennsylvanian ( 401.24 points)November 14, 2024 09:11am
Maryland Republican93: A 30,000 vote margin heading to a recount? Sure weird things have happened, but realistically this isn’t changing. The Minnesota 2008 Senate race or the Virginia 2013 AG race changed a few vote totals here or there when the margin was under 1,000 votes, Casey isn’t coming back.

Agree. Within 0.5% in PA, however, is a statutorily mandated recount (unless Casey waives it, which we won't).

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.88 points)November 14, 2024 11:13am
UPDATED RESULTS.

Dave McCormick (R)
3,384,294
48.9%
Bob Casey* (D)
3,358,526
48.5%
John Thomas (Oth.)
88,990
1.3%
Leila Hazou (Oth.)
65,586
0.9%
Marty Selker (Oth.)
23,472
0.3%

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.88 points)November 14, 2024 11:35am
Updated results

David McCormick
GOP 3,384,816 48.9%
Bob Casey Jr. *
DEM 3,359,076 48.5%
John Thomas
LIB 88,993 1.3%
Leila Hazou
GRE 65,599 1%
Marty Selker
CONST 23,472 0.3%

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.88 points)November 14, 2024 01:30pm
Decision Desk HQ has now called it for McCormick, he'll be the new senator. John Fetterman just got a promotion he does not want, Pennsylvania's senior senator.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.88 points)November 14, 2024 03:42pm
This result is much wider margin than the 2018 Florida U.S Senate election. Recount won't change the results.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.88 points)November 14, 2024 04:17pm
Updated results

Dave McCormick (R)
3,387,093
48.9%
Bob Casey* (D)
3,362,684
48.5%
John Thomas (Oth.)
89,094
1.3%
Leila Hazou (Oth.)
65,729
0.9%
Marty Selker (Oth.)
23,495
0.3%

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.88 points)November 14, 2024 10:47pm
UPDATED RESULTS

Dave McCormick (R)
3,388,638
48.9%
Bob Casey* (D)
3,364,542
48.5%
John Thomas (Oth.)
89,164
1.3%
Leila Hazou (Oth.)
65,802
0.9%
Marty Selker (Oth.)
23,521
0.3%

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.88 points)November 15, 2024 06:22pm
UPDATED RESULTS

Dave McCormick (R)
3,392,614
48.9%
Bob Casey* (D)
3,370,972
48.6%
John Thomas (Oth.)
89,342
1.3%
Leila Hazou (Oth.)
65,998
1.0%
Marty Selker (Oth.)
23,555
0.3%

 
LBT:11457The Fixer ( 50.83 points)November 15, 2024 06:39pm
Color me skeptical, Democrats from Bucks County literally said that she wants to violate order court orders:


 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.88 points)November 16, 2024 12:44am
They're running out of votes to count, but it's still possible for Casey to finish on top.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 756.11 points)November 16, 2024 08:05pm
Does anyone here believe there is a valid basis for it taking this long (nearly two weeks...and still not done!) to count the ballots in Pennsylvania?
I can't speak for the entire history of the Commonwealth...but I do know that from 1984 - 2016, they could count the votes on Election NIght. But ever since Trump won, they somehow can't accomplish that anymore.
Does anyone here have any insight into why that would be?

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4590.47 points)November 16, 2024 08:23pm
I can't speak to why it takes THIS long (too long in my opinion), but I found this about why an Election Night result has become improbable.

Under Pennsylvania law, voters may cast ballots through the mail. Local election officials are prohibited from opening the envelopes containing mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day.

Prior to 2020, the only Pennsylvania voters permitted to vote by mail needed an excuse – for instance, serving overseas in the armed forces. The first time Pennsylvania voters were able to vote by mail without an excuse was in 2020. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a record number of voters nationwide chose to vote by mail when that option was allowed, including in Pennsylvania.

Out of the nearly 7 million total Pennsylvania voters in the 2020 presidential election, roughly 2.6 million voted by mail. Prior to 2020, local election officials never needed to count such a large number of ballots received through the mail, and news organizations could typically announce Pennsylvania’s unofficial winner quickly.

For instance, in 2016, media organizations could project a Trump victory in Pennsylvania at 2:29 a.m. the Wednesday after Election Day. But in 2020, it took four days for enough ballots to be counted for news organizations to project that Joe Biden won Pennsylvania and would be the next president.

As of 10 a.m. on Oct. 28, 2024, about 2.09 million Pennsylvania voters had requested mail-in ballots. That number was likely to increase, as Pennsylvanians could request a mail-in ballot until Oct. 29. County boards of elections must receive mail-in ballots by 8 p.m. on Election Day for those ballots to be counted. Members of the military and overseas absentee ballots have until Nov. 12.
[Link]

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.88 points)November 17, 2024 05:48pm
Why do Democrat voters overwhelmingly vote by mail ?.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.88 points)November 17, 2024 06:05pm
Updated Results

Dave McCormick (R)
3,395,784
48.8%
Bob Casey* (D)
3,378,354
48.6%
John Thomas (Oth.)
89,475
1.3%
Leila Hazou (Oth.)
66,185
1.0%
Marty Selker (Oth.)
23,586
0.3%

 
D:10973Patrick ( 6.56 points)November 17, 2024 07:48pm
LSjustbloggin: Why do Democrat voters overwhelmingly vote by mail ?.

Many of them have jobs and loving families

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 756.11 points)November 17, 2024 08:33pm
So no one here is going to defend (or attempt to explain away) the practice of it taking apparently 2-3 weeks (or more) to count the ballots in Pennsylvania?
Or acknowledge that up until 2016, it wasn't like that. Something changed. Does anyone here, you know, all you people who believe in democracy, and hate fascism, do any of you have any insight into why elections in Pennsylvania after 2016 take weeks to count?
Or are you just all miserable cowards who lack the courage of your stated convictions?

 
D:8255My Congressman is a Weiner ( -19.80 points)November 17, 2024 09:42pm
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!: So no one here is going to defend (or attempt to explain away) the practice of it taking apparently 2-3 weeks (or more) to count the ballots in Pennsylvania?
Or acknowledge that up until 2016, it wasn't like that. Something changed. Does anyone here, you know, all you people who believe in democracy, and hate fascism, do any of you have any insight into why elections in Pennsylvania after 2016 take weeks to count?
Or are you just all miserable cowards who lack the courage of your stated convictions?

If none of the races were close, you'd never know or care how long it took to count votes. None of these media calls or announcements are official.

 
D:10973Patrick ( 6.56 points)November 18, 2024 08:27am
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!: So no one here is going to defend (or attempt to explain away) the practice of it taking apparently 2-3 weeks (or more) to count the ballots in Pennsylvania?
Or acknowledge that up until 2016, it wasn't like that. Something changed. Does anyone here, you know, all you people who believe in democracy, and hate fascism, do any of you have any insight into why elections in Pennsylvania after 2016 take weeks to count?
Or are you just all miserable cowards who lack the courage of your stated convictions?

What is the conviction I'm supposed to be defending? That votes should be counted? They already rigged the election for your guy why do you even care?

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 5444.70 points)November 18, 2024 01:47pm
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!: So no one here is going to defend (or attempt to explain away) the practice of it taking apparently 2-3 weeks (or more) to count the ballots in Pennsylvania?

Republicans in the state legislature refuse to allow processing mail ballots before election day, so I would suggest raising your objections with them.

 
For:10038Luzerne County Historian ( -154.39 points)November 18, 2024 05:08pm
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!: So no one here is going to defend (or attempt to explain away) the practice of it taking apparently 2-3 weeks (or more) to count the ballots in Pennsylvania?
Or acknowledge that up until 2016, it wasn't like that. Something changed. Does anyone here, you know, all you people who believe in democracy, and hate fascism, do any of you have any insight into why elections in Pennsylvania after 2016 take weeks to count?
Or are you just all miserable cowards who lack the courage of your stated convictions?

Oh, it always took this long. The races just were never close enough for anyone to ever bother paying attention.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.88 points)November 18, 2024 05:11pm
[Link]

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.88 points)November 19, 2024 02:20am
[Link]

Here are the updated results countywise.

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