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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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 to Pennsylvanian
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USER DETAILS |
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| Screen Name | Pennsylvanian |
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| Name | |
| Location | , , |
| Email | |
| Birthday | May 10, 0000 |
| Affiliation | Independent |
| First Login | May 03, 2012 06:36pm |
| Last Login | November 09, 2024 08:43pm |
| Predictions |
Points: 404.5480
Predictions: 305/335 (91.04%)
Points Per: 404.5480/335 (1.21)
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| Emote Messages |
247
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| DISCUSSION |
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Maryland Republican93: A 30,000 vote margin heading to a recount? Sure weird things have happened, but realistically this isn’t changing. The Minnesota 2008 Senate race or the Virginia 2013 AG race changed a few vote totals here or there when the margin was under 1,000 votes, Casey isn’t coming back.
Agree. Within 0.5% in PA, however, is a statutorily mandated recount (unless Casey waives it, which we won't).
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| I:8766 | Pennsylvanian ( 404.55 points)
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| November 02, 2024 07:09pm |
CA Pol Junkie: Political polarization by gender isn't necessarily a long-term trend. Abortion will of course be a key issue until it is settled in favor of the pro-choice side, but alot of the gender imbalance this year also comes from Trump being creepy as f***. If Republicans manage to nominate someone half way normal next time some of the women's vote will come back to them and some of Trump's bro cult will stay home.
No disagreement from me. Though "creepy as f***" is and will be an apt description for many a current and forthcoming male candidate seeking to emulate Trump's brand of comical hypermasculinity, even absent the abortion issue and even discounting the classic and recurring foot-in-mouth-Todd Akin social conservative. The trend very well may not be long-term...
CA Pol Junkie: If Republicans manage to nominate someone half way normal next time
...but I'm sure the Republicans will do their level best to make it so.
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"Oh, I am, I'm up on your bankruptcy too, sir."
Stone cold zinger from a 12 year old.
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KeystoneProgressive: It's a sign we live in a negative political environment when any sign of bipartisan political cooperation is seen as the "elite" working against the American people. This makes it significantly harder to get anything meaningful done, because now most politicians are afraid of their own base.
The commodification of political division is one of the more compelling explanatory factors in the appeal of a two-bit TV pitchman to a cult-like following, a symptom that now exacerbates the cause.
I like to think there's a parallel universe wherein Donald Trump is an eccentric rando doing Oxi-Clean paid infomercials that you'd wake up to on TV Land at 3am.
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Trump may make a run at this, the way his "pivot" post-Biden exit has gone...
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He doesn't have to be a dictator. After four more years, one could convincingly argue the courts he'll have stacked will do it for him. At least in terms of policy implementation.
He seems to have been, if anything, emboldened by the (failed, for which I'm glad) attempt on his life. Unsurprising, given such pathological egomania.
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Heh. Perhaps then an endorsement of Trump might've incited enough moral clarity for him to drop out and plead guilty on everything. Or perhaps I should just take what I'm given.
/s
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Still bringing the hard hitting commentary. Yes, I am very aware and expected as much. Void ab initio. I was in Rehoboth as well this past weekend. Got me thinking about Joe on a human level. I respect and like Joe. I’d have supported his reelection should he have been the Democratic nominee. And the Democrats’ ability to f*** up an open nomination is beyond reproach.
I’d always been of two minds about Joe. But Joe made the right decision for the country and for himself. Six months late, but the right one nonetheless. He is passing the torch (his Irish obstinance notwithstanding). I respect that.
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Happy birthday, Indy. Enjoy!
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Those who were around during the Shapp administration will remember Hurricane Agnes flooding out the brand new Governor's Mansion (which is right on the bank of the Susquehanna), culiminating in Shapp and his wife being famously (or infamously) rescued by boat. Can't say that's why his campaign never picked up steam, but suffice to say Shapp had *interesting* ideas about the federal budget. Namely, splitting between a perpetually balanced, daily operating budget and long-term investment expenditure. I have a Shapp '76 button around somewhere; no idea how I ended up with it. Don't think anybody in my family particularly liked the guy.
Infamy precedes Shapp's name in Pennsylvania also, for enacting the Commonwealth's flat income tax. My dad maintains he never heard anyone booed as loudly as Shapp was at a Pittsburgh Pirates game shortly thereafter. That is his primary memory of Shapp. Bloodied him pretty good here, but you could certainly argue in good faith that Shapp brought the Commonwealth back from the brink of dire straights on that account -- and in the end Watergate was probably his saving grace.
Chronicler, thanks for writing these up
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Thanks, friends. Always enjoy this slice of the interwebs.
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Not as well-read in this district, but I think Perry's endorsement would be a bigger deal if PA-01 wasn't in large part Main Line-adjacent Philly suburbs. I'm of a mind to think Perry's endorsement actually helps Fitzpatrick. Houck's legacy, such as it would be, would be sealing the Philly suburbs in Blue.
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The demographic makeup of the district alone (i.e. the entirety of the inner city, the Hill District, etc.) should swing it to Lee with relative ease. She pulls from the type of Democrat who isn't really Biden's key constituency, and there are an abundance here. Patel's ads hit Lee on not being supportive enough of the Biden agenda (i.e. being affiliated with "The Squad"), but that won't be an albatross for her. Patel would need to really run it up in some of these southern suburbs to have any shot. But I don't see it.
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BrentinCO: Love him or hate him, McCarthy was great at raising cash and getting it to candidates.
Which is why McCarthy had the good will within the conference to go 15 marathon ballots. Contrast with Jim Jordan's empty threats and feigned bombast. Here's a guy who likes to make a living tossing Molotov cocktails through open windows and little else and thinks that's enough to render him a power-dealing big shot. But, armed with the fact that a veritable man-child such as Matt Gaetz can spike the ball over the fence and cause all this just for the hell of it, who can blame him?
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Can't stand this guy. If he wants to get his a** kicked by an entrenched Democratic incumbent, he should do it in the state he *actually* lives in. I'm sure Chris Murphy'd be happy to oblige.
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Turns out Rodgers is good for businesses in Green Bay even when he ruptures his Achilles as a Jet. Go figure.
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| I:8766 | Pennsylvanian ( 404.55 points)
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| September 02, 2023 07:13am |
Rest easy, Jimmy. It's five o'clock somewhere.
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First and foremost, I do sincerely hope McConnell is ok, despite these incidents, though they certainly do not signal whole wellness. But the pause and disconcerted gaze here summed up my thoughts about the question posed quite well.
I can appreciate the political consideration in any event of resignation, though such is the hazard of seeking re-election to a six-year term (or voting for an incumbent in such a position) as a then near-octogenarian.
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While some (probably a minority) have grown to be reasonably well-adjusted as a member of a royal family, such an upbringing is hardly particularly corrective for those who are not so inclined.
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BrentinCO: If Byrd were still alive and running for re-election, do you think his pork could save this for Democrats? I don't.
Probably not, if I'm in any way a representative sample -- the out-of-staters going for this type of stuff won't be of much help votes-wise. But to more seriously engage with the question you posed, I think the narrative would be some variation on the theme we've already seen in races -- sure, there's pork, but everyone with a (D) next to their name is complicit in policy that eliminates coal jobs and renders the pork useless to those who can't afford to use it because of [insert anti-Biden talking point here]. Given the persistence of endemic poverty in WV (coupled with the present distaste for debilitatingly elderly officeholders who aren't named Trump), I suspect that narrative would be met receptively in many quarters.
I say none of this, by the way, to speak derisively of WV. I have friends there, enjoy visiting, and have generally found it to be one of the most naturally beautiful states in the country.
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BrentinCO: Sarcasm is a normal and playful part of any human relationship. For a comedian it almost seems like a disability.
The Michael Richards apology on Letterman comes to mind, though perhaps the choice of forum was not a sound one in light of the reaction it got.
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P. H. Nargeolet had more experience diving on Titanic than anyone, and spent more time with the ship than the captain himself in her short life. That he saw it fit to do so in a submersible of such apparently controversial construction is a tragic, and stark, reminder that humanity -- irrespective of experience or feats of technology or engineering -- is and remains at the mercy of its environment. This is the lesson of Titanic and now, tragically, of Titan, and it is as pointed and poignant now as it ever was.
May the five crew, and the (rising) number of souls lost in the Mediterranean disaster, rest in peace.
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Interesting, if (very) obscure, tidbit. At the same time Ed Muskie was a first-year law student at Cornell, Bill Rogers, Muskie's future predecessor as U.S. Secretary of State, was in his third and final year at Cornell Law. [Link] So, at a fairly small, then regional and very isolated law school in rural upstate New York, are two future Secretaries of State for the 1936-37 academic year. And I'd hazard a guess that neither knew (or perhaps even knew of) the other, though apparently Sol Linowitz was a mutual friend during that time (at least per Paul Sarbanes). [Link]
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Good, maybe they can launch themselves into space afterwards.
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