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  QC Parliament - LaSalle—Émard—Verdun - By-election
RACE DETAILS
Parents > Canada > Québec > QC House of Commons > LaSalle—Émard—Verdun
OfficeParliament
HonorificMember of Parliament - Abbr: MP
Type By-election
Filing Deadline August 30, 2024 - 01:00pm Central
Polls Open September 16, 2024 - 08:30am Central
Polls Close September 16, 2024 - 08:30pm Central
Term Start September 17, 2024 - 12:00am
Term End October 20, 2025 - 12:00am
ContributorBrentinCO
Last Modifiedmg2685a September 17, 2024 06:09am
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyLiberal Won09/20/2021
NameDavid Lametti Votes20,330 (42.93%)
Term09/21/2021 - 02/01/2024 Margin9,869 (+20.84%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
07/19/2024 09/16/2024
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Craig Sauvé 1 ------
Louis-Philippe Sauvé 2 ------
Laura Palestini 1 ------
Leaning Call: Louis-Philippe Sauvé (50.00%)
Weighted Call: Craig Sauvé (79.79%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

07/09/2024 09/09/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Louis-Philippe Sauvé City Councillor Laura Palestini City Councillor Craig Sauvé Louis Ialenti Jency Mercier Tina Jiu Ru Zhu Gregory Yablunovsky
PartyBloc Québécois Liberal New Democratic Conservative Green Independent People's
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes 8,884 (28.34%) 8,636 (27.55%) 8,262 (26.35%) 3,676 (11.73%) 567 (1.81%) 197 (0.63%) 156 (0.50%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -248 (-0.79%) -622 (-1.98%) -5,208 (-16.61%) -8,317 (-26.53%) -8,687 (-27.71%) -8,728 (-27.84%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 07/28/2024 07/19/2024 03/28/2024 07/19/2024 08/28/2024 08/30/2024 02/19/2024
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (2 from 1 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg35.12%-- 25.15%-- 22.62%-- 8.31%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Mainstreet Research 
09/08/24-09/09/24
29.60% 3.6 24.10% 4.9 23.00% 2.0 7.30% 6.7 0.00% 3.0 0.00% -- 0.00% 1.0
Mainstreet Research 
07/09/24-07/09/24
26.00% -- 29.00% -- 25.00% -- 14.00% -- 3.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
D ZT08
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Mark Khoury Pierre Samson Sébastien CoRhino Côrriveau Alain Paquette Steve Berthelot Lanna Palsson Myriam Beaulieu
PartyCanadian Future Independent Rhinoceros Christian Heritage Marijuana Independent Independent
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes 103 (0.33%) 78 (0.25%) 67 (0.21%) 54 (0.17%) 52 (0.17%) 49 (0.16%) 47 (0.15%)
Margin-8,781 (-28.01%) -8,806 (-28.09%) -8,817 (-28.12%) -8,830 (-28.16%) -8,832 (-28.17%) -8,835 (-28.18%) -8,837 (-28.19%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 08/28/2024 08/30/2024 07/28/2024 07/28/2024 08/28/2024 08/30/2024 08/28/2024
MATCHUP POLLS (2 from 1 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Mainstreet Research 
09/08/24-09/09/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Mainstreet Research 
07/09/24-07/09/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
VIEW 76 MORE CANDIDATES


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INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Sep 03, 2024 09:15pm News LaSalle—Émard—Verdun byelection will have record 91 candidates in a two-column ballot  Article BrentinCO 
Aug 28, 2024 09:00pm News Liberal staffers pull support for party in Montreal byelection, citing government's stance on Gaza  Article BrentinCO 
Jul 11, 2024 02:00pm Analysis LaSalle–Émard–Verdun: The Liberals' next test  Article BrentinCO 

DISCUSSION
[View All
9
Previous Messages]
 
I:11727LSwisso ( 0.0000 points)
x4
Sat, September 14, 2024 05:46:55 PM UTC0:00
Canadians should not believe polls, nor should they answer them. Election results should always be a surprise.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 7748.4790 points)
Tue, September 17, 2024 05:33:37 AM UTC0:00
Going to bed. left link. who knows who's gonna win. tight three way race. All the top three have taken a lead at least one.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 7748.4790 points)
Tue, September 17, 2024 06:21:04 PM UTC0:00
What I picked up from watching results is that apparently Palestini came early to her "victory" party and left early. Like right after she thanked volunteers.

The speculation is there will be a new Liberal candidate for the next election. Despite the NDP Sauve coming close he'll need to make a choice as to give it another stab or run for relection (which is more likely). And the Bloc Sauve will likely get a front bench assignment but that 30% is the ceiling for a Bloquiste in this riding. So expectations for re-election are low. Of course with the Libs in free-fall there is a chance for re-election but the conditions would need to be the same with the Bloc, Libs, and NDP splitting the vote three ways.

 
I:11727LSwisso ( 0.0000 points)
x2
Wed, September 18, 2024 01:42:36 AM UTC0:00
Another nail in Justin Trudeau's political coffin.

 
I:11727LSwisso ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, September 18, 2024 01:43:08 AM UTC0:00
Bad news for Trudeau's liberals going into the next election.