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  PA US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Pennsylvania > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline ---
Polls Open November 05, 2024 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close November 05, 2024 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2031 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last Modifiedev December 05, 2024 07:32am
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/06/2018
NameBob Casey Jr. Votes2,792,437 (55.74%)
Term01/03/2019 - 01/03/2025 Margin657,589 (+13.13%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Apr 23, 2024 PA US Senate - D Primary
Bob Casey Jr.
D 1,024,545
Apr 23, 2024 PA US Senate - R Primary
David H. McCormick
R 878,320
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
01/24/2023 11/05/2024
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Bob Casey Jr. 9 10 4 --
David H. McCormick 2 ------
Tossup 1 ------
Leaning Call: Bob Casey Jr. (93.18%)
Weighted Call: Bob Casey Jr. (99.70%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

03/27/2023 11/04/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name David H. McCormick (I) Chairman Bob Casey Jr. John Thomas Leila Hazou Marty Selker (W) Quincy Magee (W) Erik Messina
PartyRepublican Democratic Libertarian Green Constitution Independent American Solidarity
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 3,399,295 (48.82%) 3,384,180 (48.60%) 89,653 (1.29%) 66,388 (0.95%) 23,621 (0.34%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -15,115 (-0.22%) -3,309,642 (-47.53%) -3,332,907 (-47.87%) -3,375,674 (-48.48%) -3,399,295 (-48.82%) -3,399,295 (-48.82%)
Predict Avg.45.00% 54.00% 1.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 6/30 $8,016,398.00 6/30 $8,426,069.00 $-- $-- 6/30 $1,692.62 $-- $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Website]
Entry Date 09/21/2023 04/10/2023 04/11/2024 01/01/2024 01/01/2024 01/01/2024 08/14/2024
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (96 from 38 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg45.42%-- 48.00%-- -0.12%-- 0.48%-- 0.78%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
AtlasIntel 
11/03/24-11/04/24
46.50% 0.1 49.20% 0.5 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survation 
11/01/24-11/04/24
44.70% -- 52.90% -- 1.10% -- 0.80% -- 0.60% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
11/01/24-11/03/24
47.40% 0.2 45.90% 0.9 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
11/01/24-11/02/24
46.60% 0.9 48.70% 0.6 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
InsiderAdvantage 
11/01/24-11/02/24
47.00% -- 48.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
10/29/24-11/02/24
45.00% 1.0 50.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Ved Dookhun (W) Cory Widmann  
PartySocialist Workers Independent Republican  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)  
Margin-3,399,295 (-48.82%) -3,399,295 (-48.82%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 01/01/2024 01/01/2024  
MATCHUP POLLS (96 from 38 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%--  
AtlasIntel 
11/03/24-11/04/24
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survation 
11/01/24-11/04/24
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
11/01/24-11/03/24
0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
11/01/24-11/02/24
0.00% -- 0.00% --
InsiderAdvantage 
11/01/24-11/02/24
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
10/29/24-11/02/24
0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 


EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
08/06/2024 David H. McCormick vs Bob Casey Jr. Web Only Ad Attack eng Weakness  00:00:30 data 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor

DISCUSSION
 
I:8766Pennsylvanian ( 404.5480 points)
Tue, November 12, 2024 01:01:33 AM UTC0:00
LSjustbloggin: Schumer should just delay the Senate orientation until every senator-elect is a certified winner by their states.

The orientation is a formality. It's cocktails and elbow-rubbing for new initiants into the Club. I'm not concerned about orientation. It's optics, a Schumer power play. More concerned about the practical. The resources to set up an office, which McCormick should be availed of right now if he is not already.

LSjustbloggin: Don't worry, he'll get a better paying job than a U.S Senator.

Yes, Casey will get his recount (that is, if the margin falls within that set out by the applicable statute), will accept the inevitable, and will move on. Everyone else will, even if he doesn't. I have. He'll take his check and be just fine.

LSjustbloggin: Red to blue seat 2 years ago, Blue to red seat 2 years later. Interesting.

I'd seen that this one is the closest Senate race in PA since James Duff's loss in 1956. I'd have to eye that myself, but I don't doubt it. Toomey's re-election in 2016 was close, but not as close as 2024. That result surprised me as well. A Trump effect on both races. Not far behind was Genevieve Blatt's loss to Hugh Scott in 1964, by about 70,000 votes, in spite of the LBJ landslide.

 
For:10038Luzerne County Historian ( -631.8989 points)
Tue, November 12, 2024 02:22:25 AM UTC0:00
LSjustbloggin: Casey Jr's last election is the one he finally loses. Don't worry, he'll get a better paying job than a U.S Senator.

Red to blue seat 2 years ago, Blue to red seat 2 years later. Interesting.

It makes sense. PA is a very purple state. We've usually either had two moderate Republicans (Specter and Heinz, Scott and Schweiker) or an R/D combo (Casey and Toomey, Scott and Clark) for decades.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, November 12, 2024 04:53:47 AM UTC0:00
Updated Results

Dave McCormick (R)
3,371,062
49.0%
Bob Casey* (D)
3,335,940
48.5%
John Thomas (Oth.)
88,460
1.3%
Leila Hazou (Oth.)
64,815
0.9%
Marty Selker (Oth.)
23,333
0.3%

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, November 12, 2024 09:41:24 AM UTC0:00
There won't be a U.S Senate election in Pennsylvania in 4 years because Class 2 is up next.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, November 12, 2024 06:45:37 PM UTC0:00
No, Class 2 is up in 2026

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, November 12, 2024 06:56:05 PM UTC0:00
Updated Results

Dave McCormick (R)
3,373,863
49.0%
Bob Casey* (D)
3,339,751
48.5%
John Thomas (Oth.)
88,555
1.3%
Other candidates
88,316
1.3%

 
I:8766Pennsylvanian ( 404.5480 points)
Tue, November 12, 2024 07:07:47 PM UTC0:00
My Congressman is a Weiner: <q 11727="">There won't be a U.S Senate election in Pennsylvania in 4 years because Class 2 is up next.

So there WILL be one in four years, because Class 2 is up in 2028.
Pennsylvania has a Class I seat and a Class III seat. Class II is up in '26, Class III is up in '28.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, November 12, 2024 09:23:33 PM UTC0:00
Updated Results

Dave McCormick (R)
3,377,180
49.0%
Bob Casey* (D)
3,344,610
48.5%
John Thomas (Oth.)
88,652
1.3%
Leila Hazou (Oth.)
65,116
0.9%
Marty Selker (Oth.)
23,391
0.3

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, November 12, 2024 09:38:49 PM UTC0:00
Updated results, it's getting tighter.

Dave McCormick (R)
3,377,667
48.9%
Bob Casey* (D)
3,348,180
48.5%
John Thomas (Oth.)
88,719
1.3%
Leila Hazou (Oth.)
65,252
0.9%
Marty Selker (Oth.)
23,406
0.3%

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, November 12, 2024 10:00:55 PM UTC0:00
I might be wrong to believe McCormick won this as of now.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Tue, November 12, 2024 10:27:40 PM UTC0:00
LSjustbloggin: I might be wrong to believe McCormick won this as of now.

Casey got 65% of the 2 party vote between your last update and your update of 11/11 10:53 PM, and 88% of the vote between your last two updates. Alot depends on where the remaining ballots are from.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 04:43:37 AM UTC0:00
Updated results

Dave McCormick (R)
3,380,144
48.9%
Bob Casey* (D)
3,350,879
48.5%
John Thomas (Oth.)
88,803
1.3%
Leila Hazou (Oth.)
65,334
0.9%
Marty Selker (Oth.)
23,428
0.3%

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 09:33:21 PM UTC0:00
Updated Results

Dave McCormick (R)
3,381,439
48.9%
Bob Casey* (D)
3,353,421
48.5%
John Thomas (Oth.)
88,859
1.3%
Leila Hazou (Oth.)
65,401
0.9%
Marty Selker (Oth.)
23,442
0.3

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 09:48:12 PM UTC0:00
Casey got 58% of the 2 party vote since the update of 11/12 3:38 PM. Any idea how many ballots are left?

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 10:00:52 PM UTC0:00
I don't know if there's enough votes to put him on top, if there are, then dang.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 10:08:07 PM UTC0:00
Last week the Secretary of State said there were 100,000 ballots left to be counted, well by now, the vast majority of them have been counted.

 
D:11714KeystoneProgressive ( -7.6004 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 10:28:16 PM UTC0:00

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 10:41:52 PM UTC0:00
Updated results, Decision Desk HQ

David McCormick
GOP 3,383,832 48.9%
Bob Casey Jr. *
DEM 3,356,092 48.5%
John Thomas
LIB 88,945 1.3%
Leila Hazou
GRE 65,514 1%
Marty Selker
CONST 23,462 0.3%

 
D:6149Campari_007 ( 1066.4170 points)
Wed, November 13, 2024 10:56:24 PM UTC0:00
This race should be uncalled honestly. For the moment.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Thu, November 14, 2024 12:20:20 AM UTC0:00
Updated results

David McCormick
GOP 3,384,179 48.9%
Bob Casey Jr. *
DEM 3,357,658 48.5%
John Thomas
LIB 88,956 1.3%
Leila Hazou
GRE 65,558 1%
Marty Selker
CONST 23,465 0.3%

 
R:11448Maryland Republican93 ( 1181.7523 points)
Thu, November 14, 2024 02:00:01 AM UTC0:00
A 30,000 vote margin heading to a recount? Sure weird things have happened, but realistically this isn’t changing. The Minnesota 2008 Senate race or the Virginia 2013 AG race changed a few vote totals here or there when the margin was under 1,000 votes, Casey isn’t coming back.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Thu, November 14, 2024 02:40:38 AM UTC0:00
Maryland Republican93: A 30,000 vote margin heading to a recount? Sure weird things have happened, but realistically this isn’t changing. The Minnesota 2008 Senate race or the Virginia 2013 AG race changed a few vote totals here or there when the margin was under 1,000 votes, Casey isn’t coming back.

They're still counting votes and there's the possibly of there being enough to put the senator on top.

 
I:8766Pennsylvanian ( 404.5480 points)
Thu, November 14, 2024 03:11:47 PM UTC0:00
Maryland Republican93: A 30,000 vote margin heading to a recount? Sure weird things have happened, but realistically this isn’t changing. The Minnesota 2008 Senate race or the Virginia 2013 AG race changed a few vote totals here or there when the margin was under 1,000 votes, Casey isn’t coming back.

Agree. Within 0.5% in PA, however, is a statutorily mandated recount (unless Casey waives it, which we won't).

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Thu, November 14, 2024 05:13:47 PM UTC0:00
UPDATED RESULTS.

Dave McCormick (R)
3,384,294
48.9%
Bob Casey* (D)
3,358,526
48.5%
John Thomas (Oth.)
88,990
1.3%
Leila Hazou (Oth.)
65,586
0.9%
Marty Selker (Oth.)
23,472
0.3%

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Thu, November 14, 2024 05:35:13 PM UTC0:00
Updated results

David McCormick
GOP 3,384,816 48.9%
Bob Casey Jr. *
DEM 3,359,076 48.5%
John Thomas
LIB 88,993 1.3%
Leila Hazou
GRE 65,599 1%
Marty Selker
CONST 23,472 0.3%