Poll Average Details- PA US Senate - 2024-11-05 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Bob Casey Jr. Bob Casey Jr.	David H. McCormick David H. McCormick
Siena Research Institute	5/9	X 1.00000		46.0000 - 0.4840 bias	44.0000 - -0.0165 bias
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research	4/30	X 0.85000		48.0000 - -0.6142 bias	44.0000 - 1.2782 bias
Emerson College	4/29	X 0.83333		46.0000 - 0.8084 bias	42.0000 - 0.6906 bias
YouGov	4/25	X 0.76667		46.0000 - 1.4134 bias	39.0000 - 0.0288 bias
Muhlenberg College	4/25	X 0.76667		45.0000 - -0.6942 bias	41.0000 - 1.6290 bias
Franklin & Marshall College	3/31	X 0.35000		46.0000 - 0.8112 bias	39.0000 - -0.8927 bias
TOTAL				45.882284	41.338539