Poll Average Details- PA US Senate - 2024-11-05 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Bob Casey Jr. Bob Casey Jr.David H. McCormick David H. McCormickMarty Selker Leila Hazou Quincy Magee Ved Dookhun Erik Messina Cory Widmann John Thomas
AtlasIntel11/4X 1.00000   49.2000 - 0.6813 bias 46.5000 - 0.6043 bias              
Survation11/4X 1.00000   52.9000 - bias 44.7000 - bias 0.6000 - bias 0.8000 - bias         1.1000 - bias
Trafalgar Group11/3X 0.98333   45.9000 - -1.5916 bias 47.4000 - 1.6400 bias              
Emerson College11/2X 0.96667   47.1000 - 1.1507 bias 46.9000 - 0.4363 bias              
InsiderAdvantage11/2X 0.96667   48.0000 - -0.3111 bias 47.0000 - 0.1719 bias              
Siena Research Institute11/2X 0.96667   50.0000 - 0.8995 bias 45.0000 - -0.2762 bias              
Morning Consult10/31X 0.93333   46.0000 - 3.2496 bias 43.0000 - -1.6378 bias              
Data for Progress10/31X 0.93333   49.0000 - 1.8027 bias 45.0000 - -1.0296 bias   1.0000 - 0.5819 bias         1.0000 - 0.6931 bias
OnMessage Inc. (R)10/31X 0.93333   46.0000 - -1.9372 bias 46.0000 - 3.3406 bias              
YouGov10/31X 0.93333   50.0000 - 1.4663 bias 44.0000 - -0.0047 bias              
ActiVote10/31X 0.93333   50.5000 - bias 49.5000 - bias              
Suffolk University10/30X 0.91667   49.0000 - 1.6916 bias 46.0000 - -2.2107 bias   1.0000 - 0.3882 bias         1.0000 - 1.3790 bias
Marist Institute10/30X 0.91667   50.0000 - 1.2095 bias 48.0000 - -0.7027 bias              
Muhlenberg College10/30X 0.91667   49.0000 - -0.4588 bias 46.0000 - 1.4137 bias              
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News10/28X 0.88333   50.0000 - 1.3689 bias 48.0000 - -0.7750 bias              
Monmouth University10/28X 0.88333   47.0000 - 2.2180 bias 44.0000 - -1.1567 bias              
SSRS10/26X 0.85000   48.0000 - 2.1629 bias 45.0000 - -1.7743 bias              
North Star Opinion Research10/26X 0.85000   45.0000 - -1.9881 bias 42.0000 - 3.1892 bias 1.0000 - bias 1.0000 - 0.9802 bias         2.0000 - 3.9697 bias
Wick Insights10/24X 0.81667   47.9000 - -0.2775 bias 46.2000 - 1.5927 bias              
Bullfinch Group10/17X 0.70000   50.0000 - bias 43.0000 - bias              
Rasmussen Reports10/13X 0.63333   47.0000 - 0.4222 bias 45.0000 - 1.5749 bias              
American Pulse Research & Polling10/10X 0.58333   48.0000 - bias 45.0000 - bias              
TIPP10/9X 0.56667   47.0000 - 0.6178 bias 43.0000 - -0.2891 bias              
Research Co.10/7X 0.53333   51.0000 - 2.9639 bias 48.0000 - -0.8902 bias              
Quinnipiac University10/7X 0.53333   51.0000 - 1.4883 bias 43.0000 - -0.4574 bias              
Patriot Polling9/29X 0.40000   51.0000 - -1.4814 bias 48.0000 - 2.5748 bias              
Benenson Strategy Group (D)/GS Strategy Group (R)9/25X 0.33333   52.0000 - bias 45.0000 - bias              
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research9/24X 0.31667   49.0000 - -0.7836 bias 45.0000 - 1.4212 bias              
Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies9/23X 0.30000   47.0000 - bias 45.0000 - bias              
RMG Research9/20X 0.25000   50.0000 - 3.3133 bias 44.0000 - -1.9223 bias              
Redfield & Wilton Strategies9/19X 0.23333   47.0000 - 5.3290 bias 41.0000 - -3.3508 bias             1.0000 - 0.2578 bias
TOTAL 48.000340 45.415534 0.783784 0.477804 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.117468