As a Pennsylvanian resident there's no way Casey's going down. This exact thing happened in 2022, where Republican pollsters showed their candidate up. For example, they showed Oz up by like 4-5 points. He ended up getting defeated. Now two R-leaning pollsters have McCormick up. Of course, there's no denying McCormick is gaining momentum, but it's just not enough to defeat the Casey machine. I moved my prediction from Lean to Slight Casey out of caution, and I think this will be the closest general election of Casey's career.

"if we deem every close race to be a tossup, we won't go down as having picked the wrong candidate either way" - political predictors literally Trafalger and AtlasIntel are the only ones to have McCormick ahead right now

Tossups are for cowards.

Trafalger and AtlasIntel are the only ones to have McCormick ahead right now If in the next ten days, there aren't any more favorable results for McCormick, then yeah, I'll probably switch it back to Casey. My prediction implies that I believe that such poll results will be forthcoming.

the world series is a tossup

the world series is a tossup Slight Dodgers, even if 4/7 is technically an OC Safe margin.

Yeah I don't believe McCormick will win. This is a guy who thought the Stealers (sic) were in Philadelphia. Cook had four seats as Tossup in 2022 all of them went to the dems. He's just doing this to cover their ass and save credibility rather than take a stand.

Guys......Casey's on track to lose.

BASED!

And with this, Sheldon Whitehouse is the last man standing out of those 6 Senate seats the Democrats picked up in 2006 wave.

A bit shocked that Casey (probably) went down but Baldwin held on in a (nominally) redder state. Though Trump is also doing better in PA than WI for whatever reason in contrast with the previous two elections.

Casey will probaly hang on, a vote dump in the Philly area will put him on top. The 130k vote dump at 5am in Milwaukee put Tammy Baldwin over the top in Wisconsin.

I don't know why about 100k Trump voters didn't stick with McCormick. More people voted third party in these Senate elections than the presidential elections and it's a mystery.

Guys......Casey's on track to lose. Wait for it, a favorable Democrat vote dump is coming.

I don't know why about 100k Trump voters didn't stick with McCormick. More people voted third party in these Senate elections than the presidential elections and it's a mystery. McCormick did have base issues, as he came off as more of a neocon type, so there were some MAGAs who probably voted third party or didnt vote down here. Not to mention when he ran back in `22 Trump attacked him, calling him "liberal". Guys......Casey's on track to lose. Wait for it, a favorable Democrat vote dump is coming. If this dump puts Casey over the top, this should be a learning experience for him, and he should take his elections more seriously for now on. Casey didn't really campaign as much, he probably thought that he had little chance of losing. McCormick was gaining momentum towards the end but I had no idea that this momentum might actually be enough to flip the seat.

Dave McCormick (R) 3,338,963 48.9% Bob Casey* (D) 3,307,704 48.5% John Thomas (Oth.) 87,689 1.3% Leila Hazou (Oth.) 64,078 0.9% Marty Selker (Oth.) 23,067 0.3%

AP just called it for McCormick

And with this, Sheldon Whitehouse is the last man standing out of those 6 Senate seats the Democrats picked up in 2006 wave. That's right, bye bye Sherrod Brown, bye bye Jon Tester, Bye Bye Bob Casey. Jim Webb did not seek re-election in 2012 and Claire McCaskill was defeated in 2018.

I think this is the first time a Casey has ever lost reelection in PA. His father lost primaries but never a general election and this was Jr.'s first general defeat in his career.

With Casey gone, John Fetterman becomes senior senator.

The final result won't even be close, expect Casey to win by a knockout margin. I was wrong with my prediction. I believed that Casey was unbeatable because he came from a prominent political family.

Updated results Dave McCormick (R) 3,357,541 49.0% Bob Casey* (D) 3,320,123 48.4% John Thomas (Oth.) 88,045 1.3% Leila Hazou (Oth.) 64,346 0.9% Marty Selker (Oth.) 23,197 0.3% Collapse * Incumbent 98.2% of expected vote in

One of the funniest things I've heard from people who voted for McCormick was that they were surprised he actually won. Most voted him because he was an R but didn't expect him to win.

Updated Results Dave McCormick (R) 3,365,076 49.0% Bob Casey* (D) 3,325,841 48.4% John Thomas (Oth.) 88,223 1.3%

Updated results Dave McCormick (R) 3,368,597 49.0% Bob Casey* (D) 3,327,125 48.4% John Thomas (Oth.) 88,279 1.3% Leila Hazou (Oth.) 64,534 0.9% Marty Selker (Oth.) 23,278 0.3%