 Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Fri, April 26, 2024 05:44:26 PM UTC0:00
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Some handicapping of this race by RRH - although admittedly I have found their analysis to be rarely accurate when it comes to predictions in primaries / caucuses. Still the caucus always leans very hard right, so they Curtis picks here might not be wise even if he goes on to win the primary. Guess we'll see.
https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2024/04/25/2024-utah-convention-preview/
Overall, this convention is hard to handicap. The biggest question at the convention is whether Staggs will get the endorsement or be knocked out of the race (and to a lesser extent the same about Phippen, though she is a long-shot to make the ballot). I would guess that Wilson is actually the front-runner for the convention endorsement, and there may be a push to consolidate him and knock out Staggs as the best chance to nominate someone to Curtis’s right in the primary. However, it is possible that convention delegates could lean in to Staggs’s harder-edged conservative positions and give him the endorsement. Hatch and Walton could have an outside chance at the endorsement, while Curtis seems unlikely to get the endorsement.
Some handicapping of this race by RRH - although admittedly I have found their analysis to be rarely accurate when it comes to predictions in primaries / caucuses. Still the caucus always leans very hard right, so they Curtis picks here might not be wise even if he goes on to win the primary. Guess we'll see.
[Link]
Overall, this convention is hard to handicap. The biggest question at the convention is whether Staggs will get the endorsement or be knocked out of the race (and to a lesser extent the same about Phippen, though she is a long-shot to make the ballot). I would guess that Wilson is actually the front-runner for the convention endorsement, and there may be a push to consolidate him and knock out Staggs as the best chance to nominate someone to Curtis’s right in the primary. However, it is possible that convention delegates could lean in to Staggs’s harder-edged conservative positions and give him the endorsement. Hatch and Walton could have an outside chance at the endorsement, while Curtis seems unlikely to get the endorsement.
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