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"A collaborative political resource." |
Charlie Cook's National Overview
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| Contributor | J.R. |
| Last Edited | J.R. Jan 06, 2006 09:03pm |
| Category | Analysis |
| News Date | Jan 06, 2006 09:00pm |
| Description | While there may be more Republican retirements in the coming months and some of those might be in competitive districts, and while Democrats do have some time before many filing deadlines for candidates pass, it is unlikely that they will be able to put the 50 Republican seats in play that is thought to be necessary to have a reasonable chance of scoring a net gain of 15 seats. A more likely result is that Democrats end up with a net gain of between four and nine seats, roughly cutting the Republican margin in half in this midterm election campaign.
Under these scenarios, a Democratic gain of between two and four seats in the Senate, and between four and nine seats in the House, would result in a real fight for control of those chambers in 2008, coinciding with the presidential election that year. More importantly however, Republicans in recent months have had a very difficult time with their legislative agenda even without such losses. If their current Senate and House margins were cut in half, their majorities would only be formalities, with no one in control on Capitol Hill.
Under that scenario, with neither party in control of Capitol Hill and a president who is either a lame or crippled duck, there is a very strong chance that in terms of national governance, this country is likely to be drifting for the next three years until one party or the other manages to secure some kind of working control over the process through congressional elections or a fresh president comes into office with the honeymoon period and fresh start that inevitably accompanies a new occupant of that office. Until that time though, the drift seems almost inevitable. |
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