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"A collaborative political resource." |
A Presidency On Life Support
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Candidate
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| Contributor | RP |
| Last Edited | RP Oct 11, 2005 06:18pm |
| Category | Analysis |
| News Date | Oct 10, 2005 06:00pm |
| Description | The George W. Bush presidency is on life support. At first, these words seem harsh and overstated. For starters, Bush has more than a thousand days left in office. He can nominate Supreme Court justices and get them confirmed, as the 78 to 22 Senate vote for John Roberts so easily demonstrates. He also wields other important constitutional powers, including the veto which he can use to impose his will on a recalcitrant Congress. Finally, he retains considerable diplomatic and war powers at his disposal. But for the remainder of his presidency, George W. Bush will govern without the consent of the governed.
By itself, George W. Bush�s inability to capture significant Democratic backing is not crippling to his presidency. But his failure to win support from independents and moderates imperils his Administration�s future. Until 2004, it was believed that these two groups were crucial to winning elections and establishing a governing coalition. Bush has proved this maxim requires rethinking. According to the 2004 exit poll, John Kerry won 49% backing from independents to Bush�s 48%. Among moderates, the Kerry advantage was even more decisive: 54% to 45%. Knowing that the president could not count on independents and moderates, Bush campaign strategist Karl Rove decided he had to find more Republicans and get them to the polls.
But the limits of Bush�s strategy are apparent. Since winning reelection, Bush has continued to shed independent and moderate support. On nearly every major issue presidential disapproval among independents and moderates is higher than the national average. By reducing his base of support to hard-core Republicans, Bush has insured that the politics of polarization will continue.
Truman, Reagan, and Clinton recovered because they could change the subject.
What unites these six failed presidencies is each man�s inability to change the subject.
George W. Bush is likely to share the fates of his predecessors for one reason: he can�t change the subject. Bush cannot take the focus away from the aftereffects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita; Iraq continues to drain U.S. lives and resources with no end in sight; and (thanks to Iraq and the hurricanes) the fiscal crisis facing the next president has come four years early. Even when Bush has tried to refocus attention elsewhere, voters have answered with a resounding "NO!" For example, a Gallup poll taken in July found 62% saying they disapproved of George W. Bush�s Social Security proposals. |
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