Yes, elections are very important, but I'm not going to center my life around them. The amount you post here seems to contradict that.

Putting partisan politics aside, if you are a numbers person the Selzer poll, a gold standard in polling, is very revealing. In 2020, the last Selzer poll in IA had Trump up by 7 and he won by 8. In 2016, the last Selzer poll had Trump up by 7 and he won by 9. In 2012, the last Selzer poll had Obama up by 5 and he won by 5. Of course all polls are snapshots in time and the race and this race could dramatically change in the next 50 days. Hard to deny this campaign has not been full of events. As a data nerd, I thought this analysis was interesting of the shifts polls are picking up since the 2020 election. https://x.com/Zprtr1/status/1835488190649819218

In 2020, the last Selzer poll in IA had Trump up by 7 and he won by 8. In 2016, the last Selzer poll had Trump up by 7 and he won by 9. In 2012, the last Selzer poll had Obama up by 5 and he won by 5. I's also like to point out something else I think people have been missing lately. The polling margin isn't the only thing to pay attention to. In 2020, the last Selzer poll had Trump up by 7 - 48% to 41% which means 12% undecided (or 3rd party) There is no guarantee the undecideds will split evenly or in the same proportion as the decideds. You must factor in how many undecideds there are. In 2016, the last Selzer poll had Trump up by 7 - 46% to 39% + 6% to Gary Johnson and 1% to Jill Stein which means 8% undecided Gary Johnson got 3.78% and Jill Stein got 0.73% on election day. 3rd party candidates almost always get less on election day than they poll and their supporters move to the main party candidates. In 2012, the last Selzer poll had Obama up by 5 - 47% to 42% which means 11% undecided It's surprising with so many undecideds Selzer gets that close.

There are far more important things to life than just caring about who wins elections and who holds onto power. Politics may be a force of change, but it's not relative to your personal life. I agree with that, politics is not the most important thing in life and as a Muslim, politics has never affected my life at a significant level. I have more important stuff to worry about in life than politics.

Putting partisan politics aside, if you are a numbers person the Selzer poll, a gold standard in polling, is very revealing. In 2020, the last Selzer poll in IA had Trump up by 7 and he won by 8. In 2016, the last Selzer poll had Trump up by 7 and he won by 9. In 2012, the last Selzer poll had Obama up by 5 and he won by 5. Of course all polls are snapshots in time and the race and this race could dramatically change in the next 50 days. Hard to deny this campaign has not been full of events. As a data nerd, I thought this analysis was interesting of the shifts polls are picking up since the 2020 election. https://x.com/Zprtr1/status/1835488190649819218 If you have X, you should see @MichaelPruser. He is a data scientist at DDHQ and he posts data about elections, daily.

https://x.com/MichaelPruser/status/1831014292151316837

Yeh. Follow Pruser. He did a great job tracking the votes from the WA Public Lands Comm race. But yeh...he's a numbers nerd too.

I personally think IA will go to Trump by 7.5% which is slight lower than his 2020 and 2016 margin.

Actually, what would have me concerned as a Democrat are voter registration numbers that Pruser is posting. Hardly any of them have good news for the Democrats. Certainly, no good news in the purple states.

Actually, what would have me concerned as a Democrat are voter registration numbers that Pruser is posting. Hardly any of them have good news for the Democrats. Certainly, no good news in the purple states. This is an understated element that I see a lot of Democrats glossing over. Some will rationalize it as people strategically voting for Nikki Haley earlier in the year but that sounds like copium.

This is an understated element that I see a lot of Democrats glossing over. Some will rationalize it as people strategically voting for Nikki Haley earlier in the year but that sounds like copium. Let's take example of PA, if you were true on this and you were too remove ALL of the voter registrations Republican got from 11/2023 - 04/2024 and 11/2021 - 05/2022, Republicans lead in PA by 100K. But it is very unlikely that ALL of voter registrations Republican got from 11/2023 - 04/2024 and 11/2021 - 05/2022 were Democrats registering as Republicans to vote for Mastriano and Haley.

People have tried to predict elections based on Voter Registration changes for many cycles and have had little to no success. I include the left in this with the upsurge of young voter and minority registrations.