Heels Up Harris would be another globalist puppet president.

Heels Up Harris would be another globalist puppet president. Crude sexism and barely veiled antisemitism. Oy vey.

It's interesting that the Trump campaign says the same things at Madison Square Garden they have been saying for years but for some reason people are upset now.

Early voting data tells us basically nothing about the final composition of the electorate, and polling has become highly suspect, but I am a political junkie so just for fun I compared data from Michael McDonald and TargetSmart on who has voted early with large polls which have crosstabs for people who have already voted. CNN/SSRS: among 20% who have already voted Harris 61 Trump 36 https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/cnn-poll-harris-trump/index.html ABC/Ipsos: among 8% who have already voted Harris 62 Trump 33 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-regains-slight-lead-nationally-electoral-college-holds/story?id=115083875 By now, it is actually over 25% who have already voted. Michael McDonald has partisan breakdown among states that report it as D/R/I 40/36/24. TargetSmart has the national modeled D/R/I 47/44/9. Early voters are skewed toward women and African-Americans but those should be partly baked into partisan identification. In order to reconcile the TargetSmart data with the polling data, it would take a massive gender gap with alot of Republican women in particular voting for Harris. While I do think we will have a huge gender gap, I am skeptical it would be wide enough to make data from TargetSmart and the pollsters both be correct.

While I do think we will have a huge gender gap, I am skeptical it would be wide enough to make data from TargetSmart and the pollsters both be correct. I should add that the same pollsters who say the early vote is heavily for Harris are predicting a more or less tied race overall. If a couple more big polls come out this weekend with a larger sample of early voters, it will be interesting to see if the numbers change.

Now that we are in the final days, I thought it might be fun to guess the order of the non-R and D candidates for President.

I'm going to be fairly boring and say that ballot access is generally the best indicator of third party presidential performance, so I'm predicting: Oliver Stein Kennedy de la Cruz West Terry The caveat for this could be Kennedy. He's on the ballot in fewer states than Oliver or Stein (or Harris or Trump, obviously), but more states than everyone else. But, since he effectively dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, what could have been as high as a strong third or fourth place for him may not pan out, as at least some of his erstwhile supporters will probably take his endorsement and vote for Trump instead. Still, the fact that he's on the ballot in 31 states (and ultimately got on the ballot in 50 before withdrawing in some states) suggests to me that he'll come in somewhere in the low-mid six digits in terms of vote totals, and fifth overall (maybe fourth if something weird happens). The actual vote totals will be interesting, in particular 1) who gets over 100k votes, and 2) if anyone gets over one million votes. For 1), I predict that Oliver, Stein, and Kennedy will break 100k votes, and de la Cruz has an outside chance. This mostly comes down to California- all of those candidates are on in California but no others are, and being on the CA seems to guarantee a vote floor of at least 50k at minimum. Oliver, Stein, and Kennedy are on the ballot in enough states to make up the difference to 100k, and de la Cruz might if the way that PSL expanded their ballot access map from 2020 offsets the fact that they were on in IL in 2020 but not this year, and if they do well enough in write-ins in states where they're not on the ballot. For breaking one million votes, I wouldn't be overly shocked if no third party candidates manage it this year, but will be a little surprised if more than one candidate does. Barring something weird, if anyone does it'll probably be Oliver; if he doesn't, then imo it'll be a sign that the Libertarian Party is in more trouble than I thought. Finally, I'm curious if the American Solidarity Party will overtake Randall Terry in terms of total votes. Each campaign is on in fewer states this year than in 2020 (Terry is on 12 as opposed to Blankenship on 18, and the ASP is on 7 this year rather than 8 in 2020), but the ASP campaign is on the ballot for more voters this year. Also, last year Blankenship got only 60k votes and the ASP got 40k, and with both the continued split in the Constitution Party and the fact that Terry doesn't seem to actually want people to vote for him, I don't see him improving over Blankenship's vote total in 2020. It'll probably be pretty close either way, but this could be the year the ASP overtakes the Constitution Party as the explicitly Christian party in US politics.

Zeus' detail is very much along my lines of thinking. I do wonder how much the ballot access will end up helping Chase, though. His campaign has had to do almost everything itself with both the party apparatus and media ignoring him. Meanwhile, Stein's pulling big money for a minor party candidate and has the Gaza issue to help her with at least the sliver of population that is extremely motivated by it. My inclination is that the fundamentals of ballot access and party organization will probably hold but I would not be surprised if it ended up with Chase behind Stein and/or Kennedy despite his abilities given all the obstacles.

Zeus' detail is very much along my lines of thinking. I do wonder how much the ballot access will end up helping Chase, though. His campaign has had to do almost everything itself with both the party apparatus and media ignoring him. Meanwhile, Stein's pulling big money for a minor party candidate and has the Gaza issue to help her with at least the sliver of population that is extremely motivated by it. My inclination is that the fundamentals of ballot access and party organization will probably hold but I would not be surprised if it ended up with Chase behind Stein and/or Kennedy despite his abilities given all the obstacles. Yeah, a Stein/Oliver/Kennedy or even Stein/Kennedy/Oliver result doesn't seem impossible to me, but I think that's a scenario where each campaign gets sub one million votes. fwiw both the "broad left" (Stein, West, de la Cruz) and "broad right" (Oliver, Kennedy, Terry, Sonski, Skousen) are more split than in either 2016 or 2020, which suggests to me that the overall vote total for the Greens and Libertarians might be lower even if the total third party vote ends up being higher.

Presidential elections are the perfect time to get excited with regard to who you're supporting, but it's also worth getting emotional because the effects of elections are something which the people must endure. Politics affects our daily lives and we must either praise, blast, be neutral or be ignorant with regard to the decisions the politicians make.

Nate Silver on his podcast: “I don’t think we’re going to learn very much in this last week of the polling. In fact, I kind of trust pollsters less, they all, every time a pollster says ‘Oh, every state is is just +1, every single state’s a tie,’ No! You’re fucking herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” “Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly 1-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying! You’re putting your fucking finger on the scale! I will not name names, but some pollsters are really bad about this… Emerson College. Whoops! Was that recorded? Oops, sorry.” Of course, that means his forecast and every other forecast based on polls is being herded to a toss-up race.

huge day for finding out how many of the people who herded their national polls are gonna get burnt or rewarded

In KY and IN, RFK is getting half of the third party votes.

Right now Kamala Harris is winning Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. This is the biggest surprise in her favor. The surprise in Trump's favor is his increased support in FL and TX.

Popular vote totals right now: Trump 61 million Harris 57 million Kennedy 484,000 Stein 472,000 Oliver 459,000 West 47,000 CNN doesn't report other third party candidate votes.

My man Donald Trump won, oh yeah, somebody get a bandage because you just got cut. This victory is among the sweetest events America ever got in her history.

I'm good with Trump, I look forward to his pro-business policies

Kamala ran the worst presidential campaign in American history, it was pure elitist, lacked enthusiasm and relied on this moral superiority complex that Trump is bad, Trump is Hitler, his voters are all racists. Trump on the other hand campaigned as a man of the people, as a man who could bring that feeling of how great America was decades ago.

I was at my sister's place watching the returns trickling in and I was sharing this historic moment of watching the results. The next morning, she drove me back to our Mom's place which is where I live, I was staying at her place for the night. The biggest loser of this election was not Kamala Harris, not the Democratic Party, but the corporate legacy media. Far too long, the media has deceived, manipulated and lied to the American people. Millions of Americans have since woken up. I woke up in 2019.

Trump on the other hand campaigned as a man of the people, as a man who could bring that feeling of how great America was decades ago. Savvy political junkies like myself might have noticed that he actually turned this into a very catchy campaign slogan.

I'm going to be fairly boring and say that ballot access is generally the best indicator of third party presidential performance, so I'm predicting: Oliver Stein Kennedy de la Cruz West Terry So it looks like it'll actually be: Stein Kennedy Oliver de la Cruz West Terry Sonski So I was wrong about the order, though correct on that if this was the order then no candidate would get over one million votes. Overall, third party candidates are down from 2020 (not to mention 2016), though both the Greens and PSL seem to be improving from their 2020 totals

Trump's monumental and landslide victory has now fallen under 50% of the total votes cast. Hopefully the margin stays over 1% or else we might have to consider that it was actually fairly close!

FairVote actually released a poll about how Third Party voters would have voted if it were a 2 person race. Kennedy Voters were 59/27 Trump Oliver Voters were 36/31 Trump And Stein Voters were 66/21 Trump https://fairvote.org/most-2024-third-party-voters-support-ranked-choice-voting-and-preferred-trump-over-harris-poll-finds/