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  AZ US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Arizona > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline April 08, 2024 - 06:00pm Central
Polls Open November 05, 2024 - 08:00am Central
Polls Close November 05, 2024 - 09:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2031 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last Modifiedev November 25, 2024 03:14pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyIndependent Won12/09/2022
NameKyrsten Sinema Votes1 (100.00%)
Term12/09/2022 - 01/03/2025 Margin1 (+100.00%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jul 30, 2024 AZ US Senate - D Primary
Ruben M. Gallego
D 498,927
Jul 30, 2024 AZ US Senate - R Primary
Kari Lake
R 740,619
Jul 30, 2024 AZ US Senate - G Primary
Eduardo Quintana
G 570
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/25/2022 11/05/2024
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Ruben M. Gallego 20 3 --1
Tossup 1 ------
Kari Lake 4 ------
Leaning Call: Ruben M. Gallego (85.71%)
Weighted Call: Ruben M. Gallego (98.97%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

01/31/2023 11/04/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Rep. Ruben M. Gallego Kari Lake Eduardo Quintana (W) Sarah Williams (W) Christopher Beckett (W) Steven Cavin Sanders (W) Jannie Prosser
PartyDemocratic Republican Green Libertarian Independent Independent Independent Republican
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 1,676,335 (50.06%) 1,595,761 (47.65%) 75,868 (2.27%) 535 (0.02%) 103 (0.00%) 92 (0.00%) 82 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -80,574 (-2.41%) -1,600,467 (-47.79%) -1,675,800 (-50.04%) -1,676,232 (-50.05%) -1,676,243 (-50.05%) -1,676,253 (-50.06%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 6/30 $9,245,977.00 6/30 $2,793,763.75 $-- 6/30 $5,850.12 $-- $-- $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 01/23/2023 10/03/2023 04/08/2024 01/01/2024 04/08/2024 04/08/2024 04/08/2024
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (86 from 36 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg48.86%-- 44.23%-- 1.52%-- 1.62%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
AtlasIntel 
11/03/24-11/04/24
47.80% 0.4 48.40% 0.7 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
11/01/24-11/03/24
49.00% 0.7 48.50% 2.6 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Victory Insights 
11/02/24-11/03/24
50.00% -- 47.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
11/01/24-11/02/24
47.40% 0.5 49.10% 0.5 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
InsiderAdvantage 
11/01/24-11/02/24
49.00% 1.0 47.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
10/24/24-11/02/24
50.00% 2.0 45.00% 4.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Shawn Petty (W) David Samuel Bozic (W) Benjamin Rodriguez  
PartyIndependent Independent Independent  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 24 (0.00%) 12 (0.00%) 2 (0.00%)  
Margin-1,676,311 (-50.06%) -1,676,323 (-50.06%) -1,676,333 (-50.06%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 04/08/2024 04/08/2024 04/08/2024  
MATCHUP POLLS (86 from 36 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
AtlasIntel 
11/03/24-11/04/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
11/01/24-11/03/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Victory Insights 
11/02/24-11/03/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
11/01/24-11/02/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
InsiderAdvantage 
11/01/24-11/02/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
10/24/24-11/02/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Kyrsten Sinema (I)
Mar 05, 2024

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

BOOKS
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INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Aug 29, 2024 04:00pm News After major police endorsement, Rep. Gallego faces backlash from progressive groups  Article Jason 

DISCUSSION
[View All
54
Previous Messages]
 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
x2
Tue, October 15, 2024 03:51:58 PM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: I wonder if Kari Lake's political career will be over too after this election

Over? When she will be serving as both Governor and Senator?

 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
Tue, October 15, 2024 04:36:05 PM UTC0:00
Finally, a politician who understands how important the issue of UVF is.

 
SNP:8431Progressive Scot ( 308.4136 points)
Tue, October 15, 2024 07:01:34 PM UTC0:00
@RP don't forget she will also need to gear up her campaign for a House Seat in 2026. It's going to be very busy when she's juggling the governorship and senate at once 😂😂😉😉

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4590.4668 points)
Mon, November 4, 2024 03:13:48 AM UTC0:00

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 5444.7002 points)
Mon, November 4, 2024 04:00:47 AM UTC0:00
Kari lake is a MAGA star. Why is she trailing Donald Trump in Arizona?

Politico doesn't seem to have the awareness that they answered their question right before they asked it.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 756.1104 points)
Tue, November 5, 2024 06:48:24 PM UTC0:00
I've long suspected Trump will get his best swing state showing in Arizona, and that may well lead to Lake's barely crossing the finish line alongside him. This Senate race will be very close regardless.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Wed, November 6, 2024 09:31:23 AM UTC0:00
Yep, Gallego's gonna win

 
W:11230Arthur ( 520.6107 points)
Wed, November 6, 2024 11:00:34 AM UTC0:00
Rs would have won here had they not nominated Krazy Kari, oh well.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Thu, November 7, 2024 08:07:05 AM UTC0:00
Just put a checkmark next to Gallego, it's over

 
D:10973Patrick ( 6.5582 points)
Thu, November 7, 2024 08:58:22 PM UTC0:00
Not enough people are talking about the Democratic election fraud that happens specifically in races that Kari Lake is running in

 
LIB:6149Campari_007 ( 1501.1602 points)
Fri, November 8, 2024 05:20:41 PM UTC0:00
Does anyone see Gallego as a potential Presidential Candidate?

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.6384 points)
Fri, November 8, 2024 05:54:11 PM UTC0:00
Gallego's name has already been floated BEFORE Biden even Dropped Out

(Enjoy this page on Wikipedia while it lasts: [Link] )

Not particularly the WORST choice of the lot, BUT not who I'd pick to be the guy (OR GAL.....)

 
LIB:6149Campari_007 ( 1501.1602 points)
Fri, November 8, 2024 07:12:38 PM UTC0:00
I like him personally. I think he's tough talking and kind of brash. He's Latino, He's got a good background, He moves a swing state towards him, he's got a good liberal voting record, he's a man. Definitely someone I think people will look at for sure.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Sat, November 9, 2024 02:57:10 AM UTC0:00
Ruben Gallego (D)
1,381,684
49.6%
Kari Lake (R)
1,348,362
48.4%
Eduardo Quintana (Oth.)
57,963
2.1%

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Sat, November 9, 2024 02:58:00 AM UTC0:00
Some Trump voters actually voted for Gallego.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Sat, November 9, 2024 05:39:58 AM UTC0:00
More people voted third party in these Senate races than in the presidential races, that ultimately denied Republicans a muscular majority in the Senate. I'm talking Trump supporters.

 
LIB:6149Campari_007 ( 1501.1602 points)
Sun, November 10, 2024 09:42:25 PM UTC0:00
This is the most exciting win for the Dems IMO.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Mon, November 11, 2024 12:57:18 AM UTC0:00
Campari_007: This is the most exciting win for the Dems IMO.

Yeah but the most exciting win for Republicans was Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Mon, November 11, 2024 02:57:04 AM UTC0:00
Why would somebody have the balls to vote for Trump but not Lake ?.

 
W:11230Arthur ( 520.6107 points)
Mon, November 11, 2024 10:57:48 AM UTC0:00
Campari_007: This is the most exciting win for the Dems IMO.
Fair, but everybody with a brain knew Gallego was winning this so not that impressive.


LSjustbloggin: Why would somebody have the balls to vote for Trump but not Lake ?.
Because people hate Trump wannabees and sycophants far more than they hate Trump himself.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Mon, November 11, 2024 04:12:49 PM UTC0:00
Trump voters made this possible, I guess some Trump voters didn't want the Republicans to have too much power.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Mon, November 11, 2024 04:17:46 PM UTC0:00
Personally, I was surprised it ended up being this close. This is another "win" for Lake to gripe about.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Tue, November 12, 2024 05:54:27 AM UTC0:00
A McConnell aligned PAC spent millions on sore loser Larry Hogan in Maryland who lost by 10 points but did not spend a penny for Lake.

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