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  AZ US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Arizona > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline April 08, 2024 - 06:00pm Central
Polls Open November 05, 2024 - 08:00am Central
Polls Close November 05, 2024 - 09:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2031 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last Modifiedev November 25, 2024 03:14pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyIndependent Won12/09/2022
NameKyrsten Sinema Votes1 (100.00%)
Term12/09/2022 - 01/03/2025 Margin1 (+100.00%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jul 30, 2024 AZ US Senate - D Primary
Ruben M. Gallego
D 498,927
Jul 30, 2024 AZ US Senate - R Primary
Kari Lake
R 740,619
Jul 30, 2024 AZ US Senate - G Primary
Eduardo Quintana
G 570
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/25/2022 11/05/2024
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Ruben M. Gallego 20 3 --1
Tossup 1 ------
Kari Lake 4 ------
Leaning Call: Ruben M. Gallego (85.71%)
Weighted Call: Ruben M. Gallego (98.84%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

01/31/2023 11/04/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Rep. Ruben M. Gallego Kari Lake Eduardo Quintana (W) Sarah Williams (W) Christopher Beckett (W) Steven Cavin Sanders (W) Jannie Prosser
PartyDemocratic Republican Green Libertarian Independent Independent Independent Republican
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 1,676,335 (50.06%) 1,595,761 (47.65%) 75,868 (2.27%) 535 (0.02%) 103 (0.00%) 92 (0.00%) 82 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -80,574 (-2.41%) -1,600,467 (-47.79%) -1,675,800 (-50.04%) -1,676,232 (-50.05%) -1,676,243 (-50.05%) -1,676,253 (-50.06%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 6/30 $9,245,977.00 6/30 $2,793,763.75 $-- 6/30 $5,850.12 $-- $-- $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 01/23/2023 10/03/2023 04/08/2024 01/01/2024 04/08/2024 04/08/2024 04/08/2024
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (86 from 36 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg48.86%-- 44.23%-- 1.52%-- 1.62%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
AtlasIntel 
11/03/24-11/04/24
47.80% 0.4 48.40% 0.7 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
11/01/24-11/03/24
49.00% 0.7 48.50% 2.6 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Victory Insights 
11/02/24-11/03/24
50.00% -- 47.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
11/01/24-11/02/24
47.40% 0.5 49.10% 0.5 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
InsiderAdvantage 
11/01/24-11/02/24
49.00% 1.0 47.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
10/24/24-11/02/24
50.00% 2.0 45.00% 4.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
10/30/24-11/02/24
50.00% -- 45.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
OnMessage Inc. (R) 
10/29/24-10/31/24
48.00% -- 48.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
10/25/24-10/31/24
49.00% 5.0 45.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ActiVote 
10/05/24-10/31/24
54.30% -- 45.70% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
10/30/24-10/31/24
47.90% 0.5 48.60% 0.7 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Noble Predictive 
10/28/24-10/30/24
48.00% -- 44.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
10/21/24-10/30/24
50.00% 2.0 42.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Data for Progress 
10/25/24-10/30/24
50.00% -- 45.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
10/25/24-10/29/24
48.40% 1.3 47.90% 1.7 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Data Orbital 
10/27/24-10/29/24
44.50% -- 45.20% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Mitchell Research & Communications 
10/28/24-10/28/24
50.00% -- 46.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
RABA Research 
10/25/24-10/27/24
49.00% -- 34.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
10/24/24-10/26/24
49.70% 2.1 45.90% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SSRS 
10/21/24-10/26/24
51.00% 4.0 43.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
10/17/24-10/22/24
53.00% 1.0 45.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
HighGround 
10/19/24-10/20/24
51.70% 1.7 42.30% 3.3 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
InsiderAdvantage 
10/19/24-10/20/24
50.00% -- 46.00% 3.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of Arizona 
10/12/24-10/20/24
51.00% 4.0 36.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
10/16/24-10/18/24
48.00% 1.0 41.00% 1.0 2.00% -- 0.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
10/12/24-10/17/24
49.70% 0.3 46.20% 0.2 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
10/11/24-10/16/24
54.00% 5.0 45.00% 3.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
10/06/24-10/15/24
52.00% 1.0 40.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
10/12/24-10/14/24
47.00% 1.0 42.00% -- 0.00% 1.0 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
10/10/24-10/13/24
47.60% 0.4 43.90% 0.9 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
10/07/24-10/10/24
48.00% 1.0 41.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
10/05/24-10/08/24
50.00% 2.0 43.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SoCal Research 
10/05/24-10/07/24
51.00% -- 39.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
RMG Research 
09/30/24-10/02/24
52.00% -- 42.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
09/27/24-10/02/24
48.00% 2.0 42.00% 1.0 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research 
09/24/24-10/01/24
51.00% -- 44.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
InsiderAdvantage 
09/29/24-09/30/24
50.00% 1.0 43.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
National Research Inc. (R) 
09/25/24-09/29/24
48.00% 4.0 42.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
09/27/24-09/28/24
52.00% 4.0 41.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
09/20/24-09/25/24
50.00% -- 46.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Benenson Strategy Group (D)/GS Strategy Group (R) 
09/19/24-09/25/24
54.00% 3.0 41.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
09/19/24-09/24/24
54.00% -- 44.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Suffolk University 
09/19/24-09/24/24
47.00% -- 41.00% -- 0.00% -- 3.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
09/17/24-09/21/24
49.00% 2.0 43.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
09/16/24-09/19/24
46.00% 2.0 41.00% 1.0 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
09/15/24-09/18/24
48.00% 1.0 42.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
09/09/24-09/18/24
53.00% 4.0 39.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
09/11/24-09/12/24
47.20% -- 43.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
09/06/24-09/09/24
48.00% 4.0 42.00% 3.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
08/30/24-09/08/24
49.00% -- 41.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
InsiderAdvantage 
08/29/24-08/31/24
49.00% -- 45.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of Arizona 
08/28/24-08/31/24
47.00% -- 36.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SSRS 
08/23/24-08/29/24
47.00% -- 44.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
08/25/24-08/28/24
49.00% -- 42.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News 
08/23/24-08/26/24
56.00% -- 41.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
08/12/24-08/15/24
44.00% -- 39.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
08/08/24-08/15/24
51.00% 5.0 42.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Peak Insights (R) 
07/31/24-08/05/24
46.00% -- 46.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
HighGround 
07/31/24-08/05/24
50.00% -- 39.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
07/31/24-08/03/24
42.00% -- 36.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Benenson Strategy Group (D)/GS Strategy Group (R) 
07/26/24-08/02/24
51.00% -- 42.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
07/22/24-07/23/24
46.00% -- 42.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
07/04/24-07/12/24
49.00% -- 42.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling 
07/10/24-07/11/24
50.00% 8.0 47.00% 12.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
North Star Opinion Research 
06/17/24-06/20/24
39.00% -- 38.00% -- 9.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
06/13/24-06/18/24
45.00% -- 41.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Shawn Petty (W) David Samuel Bozic (W) Benjamin Rodriguez  
PartyIndependent Independent Independent  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 24 (0.00%) 12 (0.00%) 2 (0.00%)  
Margin-1,676,311 (-50.06%) -1,676,323 (-50.06%) -1,676,333 (-50.06%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 04/08/2024 04/08/2024 04/08/2024  
MATCHUP POLLS (86 from 36 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
AtlasIntel 
11/03/24-11/04/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
11/01/24-11/03/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Victory Insights 
11/02/24-11/03/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
11/01/24-11/02/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
InsiderAdvantage 
11/01/24-11/02/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
10/24/24-11/02/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
10/30/24-11/02/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
OnMessage Inc. (R) 
10/29/24-10/31/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
10/25/24-10/31/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ActiVote 
10/05/24-10/31/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
10/30/24-10/31/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Noble Predictive 
10/28/24-10/30/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
10/21/24-10/30/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Data for Progress 
10/25/24-10/30/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
10/25/24-10/29/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Data Orbital 
10/27/24-10/29/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Mitchell Research & Communications 
10/28/24-10/28/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
RABA Research 
10/25/24-10/27/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
10/24/24-10/26/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SSRS 
10/21/24-10/26/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
10/17/24-10/22/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
HighGround 
10/19/24-10/20/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
InsiderAdvantage 
10/19/24-10/20/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of Arizona 
10/12/24-10/20/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
10/16/24-10/18/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
10/12/24-10/17/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
10/11/24-10/16/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
10/06/24-10/15/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
10/12/24-10/14/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
10/10/24-10/13/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
10/07/24-10/10/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
10/05/24-10/08/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SoCal Research 
10/05/24-10/07/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
RMG Research 
09/30/24-10/02/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
09/27/24-10/02/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research 
09/24/24-10/01/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
InsiderAdvantage 
09/29/24-09/30/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
National Research Inc. (R) 
09/25/24-09/29/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
09/27/24-09/28/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
09/20/24-09/25/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Benenson Strategy Group (D)/GS Strategy Group (R) 
09/19/24-09/25/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
09/19/24-09/24/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Suffolk University 
09/19/24-09/24/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
09/17/24-09/21/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
09/16/24-09/19/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
09/15/24-09/18/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
09/09/24-09/18/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
09/11/24-09/12/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
09/06/24-09/09/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
08/30/24-09/08/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
InsiderAdvantage 
08/29/24-08/31/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of Arizona 
08/28/24-08/31/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SSRS 
08/23/24-08/29/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
08/25/24-08/28/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News 
08/23/24-08/26/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
08/12/24-08/15/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
08/08/24-08/15/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Peak Insights (R) 
07/31/24-08/05/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
HighGround 
07/31/24-08/05/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
07/31/24-08/03/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Benenson Strategy Group (D)/GS Strategy Group (R) 
07/26/24-08/02/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
07/22/24-07/23/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
07/04/24-07/12/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling 
07/10/24-07/11/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
North Star Opinion Research 
06/17/24-06/20/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
06/13/24-06/18/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Kyrsten Sinema (I)
Mar 05, 2024

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Aug 29, 2024 04:00pm News After major police endorsement, Rep. Gallego faces backlash from progressive groups  Article Jason 

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