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  CA Governor - Recall Replacement
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > California > Governor > Attempted Recall of Gavin Newsom > Newsom Recall Replacement Candidate
OfficeGovernor
HonorificGovernor - Abbr: Gov.
Type Recall
Filing Deadline July 16, 2021 - 12:00am Central
Polls Open September 14, 2021 - 09:00am Central
Polls Close September 14, 2021 - 10:00pm Central
Term Start September 15, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End September 14, 2021 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRBH October 22, 2021 07:20pm
Data Sources[Link]
[Link]
Description Over 50% of the voters voted “no” on the Recall Question. Accordingly, Governor Newsom was not recalled and the winner of this race did not take office.
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
02/23/2021 09/14/2021
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Larry A. Elder 11 1 2 --
Kevin L. Faulconer --1 ----
Kevin Paffrath 1 ------
Leaning Call: Larry A. Elder (86.36%)
Weighted Call: Larry A. Elder (97.36%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

04/29/2021 09/10/2021

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Larry A. Elder Kevin Paffrath Mayor Kevin L. Faulconer Brandon M. Ross John H. Cox St. Rep. Kevin P. Kiley Jacqueline McGowan
PartyRepublican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Republican Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 3,563,867 (48.41%) 706,778 (9.60%) 590,346 (8.02%) 392,029 (5.33%) 305,095 (4.14%) 255,490 (3.47%) 214,242 (2.91%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -2,857,089 (-38.81%) -2,973,521 (-40.39%) -3,171,838 (-43.09%) -3,258,772 (-44.27%) -3,308,377 (-44.94%) -3,349,625 (-45.50%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Website]
Entry Date 07/21/2021 05/20/2021 02/01/2021 07/00/2021 01/30/2021 07/06/2021 07/00/2021
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (15 from 8 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg30.07%-- 6.74%-- 4.70%-- 1.77%-- 4.43%-- 3.02%-- 2.60%--
Data for Progress 
09/02/21-09/10/21		 22.00% -- 6.00% -- 4.00% -- 5.00% -- 7.00% -- 3.00% -- 4.00% --
Survey USA 
09/07/21-09/08/21		 29.00% 2.0 9.00% 3.0 6.00% 1.0 3.00% 2.0 8.00% 2.0 3.00% 2.0 4.00% 1.0
Suffolk University 
09/06/21-09/07/21		 39.48% -- 4.72% -- 4.72% -- 1.72% -- 3.86% -- 1.72% -- 1.72% --
University of California - Berkeley 
08/30/21-09/06/21		 38.00% 20.0 10.00% 7.0 8.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 4.00% 6.0 4.00% 1.0 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
09/02/21-09/04/21		 32.40% 3.2 13.40% 8.6 3.60% 0.5 0.00% -- 2.70% 1.4 3.50% -- 2.80% --
Trafalgar Group 
08/26/21-08/29/21		 29.20% -- 22.00% -- 4.10% -- 0.00% -- 4.10% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
AIP American Independent Party
R Gloria Romero 🔗
R Brian D. Dahle 🔗
R Betty Tom Chu 🔗
R Travis Allen 🔗
R Lisa Bartlett 🔗
R Doug LaMalfa 🔗
R Michelle Park Steel 🔗
R Laurie Davies 🔗
R Dov Hikind 🔗
R Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!
NPA Michael Shellenberger 🔗
R Southern_Moderate2
  Bakersfield Californian, The
BEER WSNJ
VMan Politicoomer
R Scott Wilk 🔗
R Patricia C. "Pat" Bates 🔗
R Brian W. Jones 🔗
R Jim Nielsen 🔗
R Melissa Melendez 🔗
R Marie Waldron 🔗
R Frank Bigelow 🔗
R Jordan Cunningham 🔗
R Megan E. Dahle 🔗
R Heath Flora 🔗
R Tom Lackey 🔗
R Devon Mathis 🔗
R Janet Nguyen 🔗
R Thurston "Smitty" Smith 🔗
R Randy Voepel 🔗
I ThatAlabamaGuy
R Maryland Republican
R Doug Ose
D Tristy100
NPA Louis J. Marinelli, III 🔗
N CaliforniaModerate
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Joel Ventresca Daniel Watts Holly L. Baade Patrick Kilpatrick Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato Caitlyn Jenner John R. Drake
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Republican Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 186,345 (2.53%) 167,355 (2.27%) 92,218 (1.25%) 86,617 (1.18%) 85,061 (1.16%) 75,215 (1.02%) 68,545 (0.93%)
Margin-3,377,522 (-45.88%) -3,396,512 (-46.14%) -3,471,649 (-47.16%) -3,477,250 (-47.24%) -3,478,806 (-47.26%) -3,488,652 (-47.39%) -3,495,322 (-47.48%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Campaign Site] [Website] [Website] [Campaign Site] [Website]
Entry Date 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/16/2021 04/23/2021 07/00/2021
MATCHUP POLLS (15 from 8 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg1.35%-- 1.28%-- 0.68%-- 1.39%-- -0.64%-- 1.42%-- 1.51%--
Data for Progress 
09/02/21-09/10/21		 0.00% -- 3.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
09/07/21-09/08/21		 2.00% -- 2.00% -- 4.00% 1.0 2.00% -- 1.00% 2.0 2.00% -- 4.00% 2.0
Suffolk University 
09/06/21-09/07/21		 3.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.43% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.86% -- 1.29% --
University of California - Berkeley 
08/30/21-09/06/21		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% 3.0 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
09/02/21-09/04/21		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.30% 0.2 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
08/26/21-08/29/21		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.10% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R Chilp3
VIEW 39 MORE CANDIDATES

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
John Moorlach (R)
Jul 17, 2021 		Ye (I)
Jul 17, 2021 		Mary Carey (I)
Apr 13, 2021 - Jul 16, 2021 		Richard Grenell (R)
Jul 16, 2021 		Louis J. Marinelli, III (NPA)
Jun 30, 2021 - Jul 16, 2021 		Tom Steyer (D)
Mar 31, 2021

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
09/08/2021 Larry A. Elder Issue Video Issue eng Angry Liberal in Gorilla Mask throws Egg at Larry Elder!  00:05:33 data 
09/05/2021 Kevin Paffrath Event Video Issue eng California Cop purposefully SLAMS GATE at Governor Candidate  00:01:01 data 
08/26/2021 Angelyne Web Only Ad Feel Good eng Governor Angelyne: I Love You  00:00:04 data 
08/22/2021 TVAd Issue eng Recall In The Air Tonight (Gavin Newsom California Recall Song)  00:01:32 data 
05/11/2021 Caitlyn Jenner Web Only Ad Mixed eng Caitlyn for California  00:02:59 BrentinCO 
04/19/2021 Angelyne TVAd Mixed eng Angelyne: Official Announcement for California Governor Campaign  00:00:05 data 
12/15/2020 vs Music Video Mixed eng "Recall Gavin Newsom" Song by Zuma Dogg  00:03:33 data 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Sep 09, 2021 10:00pm News Larry Elder egged by woman in gorilla mask in 'racist' attack in California  Article data 
Sep 04, 2021 12:00am News California Democratic challenger says he was barred from entering Newsom’s ‘Stop the Republican Recall’ rally  Article data 
Apr 26, 2021 07:00pm News California effort to recall Gavin Newsom gets signatures needed to trigger vote  Article IndyGeorgia 
Apr 23, 2021 01:00pm News Caitlyn Jenner Announces Run For California Governor  Article Bojicat 
Feb 01, 2021 03:00pm News John Cox says he wants to run for governor again, which is likely bad news for Calif. Republicans  Article BrentinCO 

DISCUSSION
[View All
112
Previous Messages]
 
D:2108ev ( 1868.6743 points)
Sat, September 18, 2021 09:13:19 PM UTC0:00
I was updating the results and somehow accidentally marked Lodge, the winner. I clicked the clear winner link, but he's still checked as a winner.
 
D:10358Charlotte KAP ( 183.6672 points)
Sat, September 18, 2021 09:16:47 PM UTC0:00
Fixed. In future, just click the winner designation for the person you meant if the Clear Winner link gives you grief.
 
D:2108ev ( 1868.6743 points)
Sat, September 18, 2021 09:17:47 PM UTC0:00
Well, I wasn't meaning to click any winner but yes, the clear winner link does give us grief.
 
BEER:10271WSNJ ( 478.4198 points)
Sun, September 19, 2021 03:38:33 PM UTC0:00
Crazy how someone like Faulconer can perform this poorly in this day and age.
 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.6384 points)
Sun, September 19, 2021 04:36:45 PM UTC0:00
Prople in this cycle were more solidified.
 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4590.4668 points)
Sun, September 19, 2021 05:50:46 PM UTC0:00
Ted Gaines finishing in 17th place is interesting. I guess California voters don't fall in love with their Equalization Board members.
 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 756.1104 points)
Mon, September 20, 2021 05:57:48 AM UTC0:00
Brandom M. Ross came in 2nd place in Imperial County, because Imperial County.
 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Mon, September 20, 2021 06:18:49 AM UTC0:00
Still find it hard to believe that with all her name recognition Caitlyn finished tied with a bunch of nobodies who spent less combined than what she probably spends in a day.
 
D:1989RBH ( 5686.1743 points)
Mon, September 20, 2021 07:56:36 AM UTC0:00
any thoughts about moving this race and the recall race to a new container since the results would be in the history graph even if the winners won't take office?
 
I:9775Natalie ( 107.9987 points)
Mon, September 20, 2021 10:53:29 PM UTC0:00
 
D:1989RBH ( 5686.1743 points)
Wed, September 22, 2021 02:24:20 AM UTC0:00
the Board of Equalization really doesn't have that much power anymore, so apparently it's not a good springboard.

Surprisingly Mike Schaefer (who is also on the BOE after decades as a frequent candidate) didn't run as a replacement
 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4590.4668 points)
Wed, September 22, 2021 02:55:58 AM UTC0:00
Gavin Newsom made sure to dissuade Schaefer from running. With six decades in and sort of around politics, Newsom wasn't taking any chances.
 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Sun, May 15, 2022 01:04:40 AM UTC0:00
I don't find this really surprising given that Paffrath was the main Democrat running in the replacement election and this is San Francisco afterall.

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