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  CA Governor - Recall Replacement
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > California > Governor > Attempted Recall of Gavin Newsom > Newsom Recall Replacement Candidate
OfficeGovernor
HonorificGovernor - Abbr: Gov.
Type Recall
Filing Deadline July 16, 2021 - 12:00am Central
Polls Open September 14, 2021 - 09:00am Central
Polls Close September 14, 2021 - 10:00pm Central
Term Start September 15, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End September 14, 2021 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRBH October 22, 2021 07:20pm
Data Sources[Link]
[Link]
Description Over 50% of the voters voted “no” on the Recall Question. Accordingly, Governor Newsom was not recalled and the winner of this race did not take office.
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
02/23/2021 09/14/2021
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Larry A. Elder 11 1 2 --
Kevin L. Faulconer --1 ----
Kevin Paffrath 1 ------
Leaning Call: Larry A. Elder (86.36%)
Weighted Call: Larry A. Elder (97.36%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

04/29/2021 09/10/2021

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Larry A. Elder Kevin Paffrath Mayor Kevin L. Faulconer Brandon M. Ross John H. Cox St. Rep. Kevin P. Kiley Jacqueline McGowan
PartyRepublican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Republican Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 3,563,867 (48.41%) 706,778 (9.60%) 590,346 (8.02%) 392,029 (5.33%) 305,095 (4.14%) 255,490 (3.47%) 214,242 (2.91%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -2,857,089 (-38.81%) -2,973,521 (-40.39%) -3,171,838 (-43.09%) -3,258,772 (-44.27%) -3,308,377 (-44.94%) -3,349,625 (-45.50%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Website]
Entry Date 07/21/2021 05/20/2021 02/01/2021 07/00/2021 01/30/2021 07/06/2021 07/00/2021
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (15 from 8 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg30.07%-- 6.74%-- 4.70%-- 1.77%-- 4.43%-- 3.02%-- 2.60%--
Data for Progress 
09/02/21-09/10/21
22.00% -- 6.00% -- 4.00% -- 5.00% -- 7.00% -- 3.00% -- 4.00% --
Survey USA 
09/07/21-09/08/21
29.00% 2.0 9.00% 3.0 6.00% 1.0 3.00% 2.0 8.00% 2.0 3.00% 2.0 4.00% 1.0
Suffolk University 
09/06/21-09/07/21
39.48% -- 4.72% -- 4.72% -- 1.72% -- 3.86% -- 1.72% -- 1.72% --
University of California - Berkeley 
08/30/21-09/06/21
38.00% 20.0 10.00% 7.0 8.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 4.00% 6.0 4.00% 1.0 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
09/02/21-09/04/21
32.40% 3.2 13.40% 8.6 3.60% 0.5 0.00% -- 2.70% 1.4 3.50% -- 2.80% --
Trafalgar Group 
08/26/21-08/29/21
29.20% -- 22.00% -- 4.10% -- 0.00% -- 4.10% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Joel Ventresca Daniel Watts Holly L. Baade Patrick Kilpatrick Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato Caitlyn Jenner John R. Drake
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Republican Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 186,345 (2.53%) 167,355 (2.27%) 92,218 (1.25%) 86,617 (1.18%) 85,061 (1.16%) 75,215 (1.02%) 68,545 (0.93%)
Margin-3,377,522 (-45.88%) -3,396,512 (-46.14%) -3,471,649 (-47.16%) -3,477,250 (-47.24%) -3,478,806 (-47.26%) -3,488,652 (-47.39%) -3,495,322 (-47.48%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Campaign Site] [Website] [Website] [Campaign Site] [Website]
Entry Date 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/16/2021 04/23/2021 07/00/2021
MATCHUP POLLS (15 from 8 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg1.35%-- 1.28%-- 0.68%-- 1.39%-- -0.64%-- 1.42%-- 1.51%--
Data for Progress 
09/02/21-09/10/21
0.00% -- 3.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
09/07/21-09/08/21
2.00% -- 2.00% -- 4.00% 1.0 2.00% -- 1.00% 2.0 2.00% -- 4.00% 2.0
Suffolk University 
09/06/21-09/07/21
3.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.43% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.86% -- 1.29% --
University of California - Berkeley 
08/30/21-09/06/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% 3.0 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
09/02/21-09/04/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.30% 0.2 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
08/26/21-08/29/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.10% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R Chilp3
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Dan Kapelovitz Committee Member Jeff Hewitt Board Member Edward M. "Ted" Gaines Angelyne David Moore Anthony Trimino Rep. Doug Ose
PartyGreen Libertarian Republican No Party Affiliation No Party Affiliation Republican Republican
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 64,375 (0.87%) 50,378 (0.68%) 47,937 (0.65%) 35,900 (0.49%) 31,224 (0.42%) 28,101 (0.38%) 26,204 (0.36%)
Margin-3,499,492 (-47.54%) -3,513,489 (-47.73%) -3,515,930 (-47.76%) -3,527,967 (-47.92%) -3,532,643 (-47.99%) -3,535,766 (-48.03%) -3,537,663 (-48.06%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Campaign Site] [Website] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 07/00/2021 04/30/2021 07/00/2021 00/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 03/16/2021
Dropped Out
08/17/2021
MATCHUP POLLS (15 from 8 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- -0.09%-- 3.07%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 3.62%--
Data for Progress 
09/02/21-09/10/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
09/07/21-09/08/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Suffolk University 
09/06/21-09/07/21
0.00% -- 1.29% -- 0.86% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of California - Berkeley 
08/30/21-09/06/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
09/02/21-09/04/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% 0.2
Trafalgar Group 
08/26/21-08/29/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.20% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Michael Loebs Heather Collins Major Singh David Lozano Denver Stoner Sam L. Gallucci Steve Chavez Lodge
PartyNo Party Affiliation Green No Party Affiliation Republican Republican Republican Republican
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 25,468 (0.35%) 24,260 (0.33%) 21,394 (0.29%) 19,945 (0.27%) 19,588 (0.27%) 18,134 (0.25%) 17,435 (0.24%)
Margin-3,538,399 (-48.07%) -3,539,607 (-48.08%) -3,542,473 (-48.12%) -3,543,922 (-48.14%) -3,544,279 (-48.15%) -3,545,733 (-48.17%) -3,546,432 (-48.17%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/01/2021
MATCHUP POLLS (15 from 8 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Data for Progress 
09/02/21-09/10/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
09/07/21-09/08/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Suffolk University 
09/06/21-09/07/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of California - Berkeley 
08/30/21-09/06/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
09/02/21-09/04/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
08/26/21-08/29/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Jenny Rae Le Roux David Alexander Bramante Diego Javier Martínez Robert C. Newman, II Sarah Stephens Dennis Richter (W) Major Williams
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican No Party Affiliation Republican
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 16,032 (0.22%) 11,501 (0.16%) 10,860 (0.15%) 10,602 (0.14%) 10,583 (0.14%) 10,468 (0.14%) 8,965 (0.12%)
Margin-3,547,835 (-48.19%) -3,552,366 (-48.26%) -3,553,007 (-48.26%) -3,553,265 (-48.27%) -3,553,284 (-48.27%) -3,553,399 (-48.27%) -3,554,902 (-48.29%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 00/00/2020
MATCHUP POLLS (15 from 8 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Data for Progress 
09/02/21-09/10/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
09/07/21-09/08/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Suffolk University 
09/06/21-09/07/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of California - Berkeley 
08/30/21-09/06/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
09/02/21-09/04/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
08/26/21-08/29/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Denis Lucey James Hanink Daniel Mercuri Chauncey "Slim" Killens Leo S. Zacky Kevin K. Kaul David Hillberg
PartyNo Party Affiliation No Party Affiliation Republican Republican Republican No Party Affiliation Republican
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 8,182 (0.11%) 7,193 (0.10%) 7,110 (0.10%) 6,879 (0.09%) 6,099 (0.08%) 5,600 (0.08%) 4,435 (0.06%)
Margin-3,555,685 (-48.30%) -3,556,674 (-48.31%) -3,556,757 (-48.32%) -3,556,988 (-48.32%) -3,557,768 (-48.33%) -3,558,267 (-48.34%) -3,559,432 (-48.35%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Campaign Site] [Website]
Entry Date 07/00/2021 00/00/2021 00/00/2020 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/16/2021 07/00/2021
MATCHUP POLLS (15 from 8 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Data for Progress 
09/02/21-09/10/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
09/07/21-09/08/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Suffolk University 
09/06/21-09/07/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of California - Berkeley 
08/30/21-09/06/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
09/02/21-09/04/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
08/26/21-08/29/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Adam Papagan Rhonda Furin Nickolas Wildstar Jeremiah "Jeremy" Marciniak Joe Symmon (W) Miki Habryn (W) Roxanne
PartyNo Party Affiliation Republican Republican No Party Affiliation Republican No Party Affiliation Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 4,021 (0.06%) 3,964 (0.05%) 3,811 (0.05%) 2,894 (0.04%) 2,397 (0.03%) 137 (0.00%) 116 (0.00%)
Margin-3,559,846 (-48.36%) -3,559,903 (-48.36%) -3,560,056 (-48.36%) -3,560,973 (-48.37%) -3,561,470 (-48.38%) -3,563,730 (-48.41%) -3,563,751 (-48.41%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 07/00/2021 07/16/2021 00/00/2020 07/00/2021 07/16/2021 07/16/2021 07/16/2021
MATCHUP POLLS (15 from 8 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Data for Progress 
09/02/21-09/10/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
09/07/21-09/08/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Suffolk University 
09/06/21-09/07/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of California - Berkeley 
08/30/21-09/06/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
09/02/21-09/04/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
08/26/21-08/29/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Stacy Smith (W) Vivek B. Mohan (W) Thuy E. Hugens (W) Vince Lundgren  
PartyDemocratic No Party Affiliation American Independent No Party Affiliation  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 81 (0.00%) 68 (0.00%) 19 (0.00%) 5 (0.00%)  
Margin-3,563,786 (-48.41%) -3,563,799 (-48.41%) -3,563,848 (-48.41%) -3,563,862 (-48.41%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 07/16/2021 07/16/2021 07/16/2021 07/16/2021  
MATCHUP POLLS (15 from 8 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Data for Progress 
09/02/21-09/10/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
09/07/21-09/08/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Suffolk University 
09/06/21-09/07/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of California - Berkeley 
08/30/21-09/06/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
09/02/21-09/04/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
08/26/21-08/29/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
John Moorlach (R)
Jul 17, 2021
Ye (I)
Jul 17, 2021
Mary Carey (I)
Apr 13, 2021 - Jul 16, 2021
Richard Grenell (R)
Jul 16, 2021
Louis J. Marinelli, III (NPA)
Jun 30, 2021 - Jul 16, 2021
Tom Steyer (D)
Mar 31, 2021

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
09/08/2021 Larry A. Elder Issue Video Issue eng Angry Liberal in Gorilla Mask throws Egg at Larry Elder!  00:05:33 data 
09/05/2021 Kevin Paffrath Event Video Issue eng California Cop purposefully SLAMS GATE at Governor Candidate  00:01:01 data 
08/26/2021 Angelyne Web Only Ad Feel Good eng Governor Angelyne: I Love You  00:00:04 data 
08/22/2021 TVAd Issue eng Recall In The Air Tonight (Gavin Newsom California Recall Song)  00:01:32 data 
05/11/2021 Caitlyn Jenner Web Only Ad Mixed eng Caitlyn for California  00:02:59 BrentinCO 
04/19/2021 Angelyne TVAd Mixed eng Angelyne: Official Announcement for California Governor Campaign  00:00:05 data 
12/15/2020 vs Music Video Mixed eng "Recall Gavin Newsom" Song by Zuma Dogg  00:03:33 data 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Sep 09, 2021 10:00pm News Larry Elder egged by woman in gorilla mask in 'racist' attack in California  Article data 
Sep 04, 2021 12:00am News California Democratic challenger says he was barred from entering Newsom’s ‘Stop the Republican Recall’ rally  Article data 
Apr 26, 2021 07:00pm News California effort to recall Gavin Newsom gets signatures needed to trigger vote  Article IndyGeorgia 
Apr 23, 2021 01:00pm News Caitlyn Jenner Announces Run For California Governor  Article Bojicat 
Feb 01, 2021 03:00pm News John Cox says he wants to run for governor again, which is likely bad news for Calif. Republicans  Article BrentinCO 

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