I’ve been predicting an Oz victory even when polls had Fetterman up by double digits. It’s almost impossible to escape a state’s partisanship+national environment. I learned that lesson in VA Sen 2014 and WI Sen 2016 (among others).

It’s almost impossible to escape a state’s partisanship+national environment. A really bad Senate candidate can manage to lose in a purple state regardless of the environment. Dr. Oz may not be quite as bad as Herschel Walker, but he is still a bad candidate. The national environment is unclear as well: although inflation helps Republicans, Dobbs helps Democrats.

Dr. Oz may not be quite as bad as Herschel Walker, but he is still a bad candidate. Sure...but there are two bad candidates in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

Sure...but there are two bad candidates in the Pennsylvania Senate race. I count 3: Oz, Gerhardt. & Wassmer

Don't think that would be a good thing.

The debate is being held right now. Both Fetterman and Oz are fairly vague in their answers. Fetterman's stutter isn't too bad; a few times he had trouble getting the right word out. Oz has a few prepared lines that he repeats too much. I think Oz is doing slightly better on the whole but I don't know if it will be enough to get him across the 50% line.

As a Democrat, this debate is hard to watch. I do not see Fetterman winning this election anymore.

I tend to believe debates don't matter, at least for Republicans. But the general consensus seems to be that Fetterman's performance was difficult to watch, and given the huge collapse in his numbers since August I'm inclined to believe this pushes Oz over the edge. As a sidebar, I did think at the time that left-leaning Twittersphere got too clever by half over the crudité thing for two reasons: (1) it played into the idea that Democrats were aloof and dismissive of inflation and (2) these highly-educated suburbanite voters that Democrats have fallen in love with over the past few years probably identify more on the Oz side of calling it something pretentious.

It's not the best look, but given the fact this is the same nation that elected Feinstein & Biden despite similar concerns, I'd say the race probably has not changed much due to the debate. It might actually be a lot like 2020 in that regard

Also I was confused about the fracking question. Anyone who follows Pennsylvania politics knows about Fetterman's support for fracking because his position varies from the usual Democratic position. Is it possible that the 2014 interview transcript had an error that was never corrected?

Before Fetterman won a statewide office he was very much anti-fracking, but after becoming Lt Gov, he adapted to have a mixed stance on it

Debates don't make any difference in the outcome, but I'm sure Fetterman will make sure everyone in Pennsylvania sees Oz's line that abortion is between "a woman, her doctor, and local political leaders".

I'm sure Oz would like all of the focus on each candidate's respective debate performance from now until election day.

Democrats have to fall in love, Republicans just have to fall in line

Or…articulate themselves in a coherent manner. Poor things.

Just have to contrast Fetterman and Herschel Walker. Quite a few Dems are wetting the bed over Fetterman because they always panic and expect to lose close elections. Meanwhile quite a few Rs would expect Walker to win because the expectation is that D base voters only vote once every four years and R base voters always vote.

NBC has called this for Fetterman.

F yeah! Screw New Jersey!

I wonder if Oz will move out of his in-laws house and back to NJ.

I wonder if Oz will move out of his in-laws house and back to NJ. For all of the talk about Fetterman's debate performance, I maintain he got a pretty good one in when he suggested to Oz, "Why don't you pretend you live in Vermont instead of Pennsylvania and run against Bernie Sanders" in response to Oz pushing the Sanders attack. One of the crucial factors here is just how much of an unlikeable, carpetbagging jack*** this guy really is. If he does head for the exit, it won't be a minute too soon.

got a bit of a fun change% map here from 2016 to 2022

Michael Smerconish said that when he first saw the result in my county (Montgomery) that the margin was so wide he thought it had to be a typo.