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  MA District 04 - D Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Massachusetts > MA - District 04
OfficeHouse of Representatives
HonorificRepresentative - Abbr: Rep.
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline June 02, 2020 - 04:00pm Central
Polls Open September 01, 2020 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close September 01, 2020 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm
Turnout 24.87% Total Population
Invalid Votes Under Votes: 9,996
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRBH September 10, 2020 07:25pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/06/2018
NameJoseph P. Kennedy, III Votes245,289 (97.72%)
Term01/03/2019 - 01/03/2021 Margin239,562 (+95.44%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/03/2020
NameJake Auchincloss Votes251,102 (60.83%)
Term01/03/2021 - 01/03/2023 Margin90,628 (+21.95%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceMA District 04 11/03/2020
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
05/17/2019 09/01/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Becky Grossman 2 ------
Jesse R. Mermell 3 ------
Ihssane Leckey 1 ------
Jake Auchincloss 2 ------
Leaning Call: Jesse R. Mermell (37.50%)
Weighted Call: Jesse R. Mermell (66.33%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

05/26/2020 08/28/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name City Councillor Jake Auchincloss Jesse R. Mermell Becky Grossman Natalia Linos Ihssane Leckey Alan A. Khazei Christopher Z. Zannetos
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 35,361 (22.40%) 33,216 (21.04%) 28,578 (18.11%) 18,364 (11.64%) 17,539 (11.11%) 14,440 (9.15%) 5,135 (3.25%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -2,145 (-1.36%) -6,783 (-4.30%) -16,997 (-10.77%) -17,822 (-11.29%) -20,921 (-13.25%) -30,226 (-19.15%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 8/12 $353,917.25 8/12 $281,916.19 8/12 $349,594.50 $0.00 $0.00 6/30 $1,150,622.62 $0.00
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 10/03/2019 10/02/2019 09/24/2019 04/30/2020 05/23/2019 09/24/2019 04/01/2020
Dropped Out
08/26/2020
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (5 from 4 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg18.65%-- 16.92%-- 14.84%-- 7.31%-- 10.26%-- 7.34%-- 1.13%--
RABA Research 
08/27/20-08/28/20
23.00% -- 22.00% -- 15.00% -- 7.00% -- 11.00% -- 8.00% -- 0.00% --
Data for Progress 
08/10/20-08/14/20
14.00% -- 13.00% -- 13.00% -- 9.00% -- 9.00% -- 7.00% -- 1.00% --
FrederickPolls 
08/01/20-08/04/20
16.00% -- 10.00% -- 19.00% -- 4.00% -- 11.00% -- 6.00% -- 1.00% --
FrederickPolls 
08/01/20-08/04/20
16.00% -- 10.00% -- 19.00% -- 4.00% -- 11.00% -- 6.00% -- 1.00% --
Beacon Research (D) 
05/26/20-05/30/20
7.00% -- 7.00% -- 13.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 4.00% -- 1.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name David Franklin Cavell Benjamin R. Sigel (W) Write-In  
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 2,498 (1.58%) 2,465 (1.56%) 242 (0.15%)  
Margin-32,863 (-20.82%) -32,896 (-20.84%) -35,119 (-22.25%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 8/12 $86,602.56 8/12 $54,727.82 $--  
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]  
Entry Date 10/17/2019
Dropped Out
08/13/2020
01/21/2020 06/02/2020  
MATCHUP POLLS (5 from 4 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg7.45%-- 1.89%-- 0.00%--  
RABA Research 
08/27/20-08/28/20
0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
Data for Progress 
08/10/20-08/14/20
1.00% -- 3.00% -- 0.00% --
FrederickPolls 
08/01/20-08/04/20
7.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% --
FrederickPolls 
08/01/20-08/04/20
7.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
Beacon Research (D) 
05/26/20-05/30/20
2.00% -- 4.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Tom Shack (D)
Feb 18, 2020 - May 08, 2020
Claire D. Cronin (D)
 00, 2020
Raul Fernandez (D)
 00, 2020
Will Flanagan (D)
 00, 2020
Jay Gonzalez (D)
 00, 2020
Paul R. Heroux (D)
 00, 2020
Scott Lang (D)
 00, 2020
Shannon Liss-Riordan (D)
 00, 2020
Marc R. Pacheco (D)
 00, 2020
Rebecca L. "Becca" Rausch (D)
 00, 2020
Michael P. Ross (D)
 00, 2020
David Simas (D)
 00, 2020
Sam Sutter (D)
 00, 2020
Setti D. Warren (D)
 00, 2020
Josh Zakim (D)
 00, 2020
Ruth B. Balser (D)
Nov 12, 2019
Patricia A. Haddad (D)
Oct 15, 2019
Deborah Goldberg (D)
Oct 02, 2019
Christopher S. Dempsey (D)
Sep 24, 2019
Paul Feeney (D)
Sep 24, 2019
Tommy Vitolo (D)
Sep 24, 2019
Joseph P. Kennedy, III (D)
Sep 21, 2019
Cynthia Stone Creem (D)
Sep 20, 2019

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DISCUSSION
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26
Previous Messages]
 
R:7501Maryland Republican ( 3666.8198 points)
Wed, September 2, 2020 09:00:55 PM UTC0:00
I would assume yes since the AP called it. Before I call races, I usually wait for the AP, one of the major networks or The NY Times.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.6384 points)
Wed, September 2, 2020 09:47:55 PM UTC0:00
Kyle:
I was being facetious. I simply believe that both ends of the political extremes have a lack of nuance when it comes to political philosophy. Instead, they posit "if person a doesn't agree with x position, they must believe y (the completely opposite position.)"

We see this with those who suggest that because Joe Biden doesn't support the Green New Deal or Medicare For All, there is NO MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE between Trump and Biden on health care. Obviously, to any objective political observer, that is completely ridiculous.

We seen this born out with Auchincloss who, by any assessment, is center-left AT LEAST. And yet, those on the far-left seem to think Ted Cruz has won a house seat in MA-04.

You're biggest issue is referring to people like me as "Far-Left" when by no metric am I or a majority of the left "Far-Left" at all.

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1821.8373 points)
Thu, September 3, 2020 12:23:38 AM UTC0:00
Just out of curiosity, not an attack, what do you consider far left? And what do consider far left by American standards? Assuming they're different, they may not be for you.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.6384 points)
Thu, September 3, 2020 12:36:10 AM UTC0:00
WA Indy: Just out of curiosity, not an attack, what do you consider far left? And what do consider far left by American standards? Assuming they're different, they may not be for you.

People like Gloria La Riva, David Rolde, or Tankies (Term 4 Commies who LOVE USSR/China/DPRK). Since they do exist by being advocacy groups and run candidates they would be the Far-Left in the US. They are on the fringe and their issues go WAY BEYOND the Mainstream Left.

The issues that folks like Bernie and AOC are mainstream now, so the "far" label gets removed from their label and they are just The Left

 
D:1989RBH ( 5686.1743 points)
Thu, September 3, 2020 07:27:36 PM UTC0:00
It seems like a lot of the candidates saying they're Democratic Socialists are probably closer to Social Democrats. But Social Democracy really isn't a political label that gets used much in the US, so..

Will be interesting to see which people in the DSA realm stick-to-it during a Biden presidency and which ones become more conventional with a Dem president.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.6384 points)
Thu, September 3, 2020 08:17:41 PM UTC0:00
They'll fight when need be and work with them when need be, the real far lefties are the ones who call AOC and Bernie sell outs for working with Dems when they can

 
D:1989RBH ( 5686.1743 points)
Fri, September 4, 2020 12:32:56 AM UTC0:00
yeah, the types who think anything resembling success involved being co-opted might be annoyed at times over the next 4 years.

Wonder how long it'll take for any sort of foreign policy thing to become a prominent issue because (somehow) Covid kinda knocked foreign policy things down the ladder and it sorta seems like solidly left politics are more popular on domestic policy than foreign policy.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.6384 points)
Fri, September 4, 2020 01:46:12 AM UTC0:00
As a representative of Left Twitter it does get infuriating that folks are cancelling Jamaal Bowman for even daring to say he will work with a Biden administration

It depends on the FP issues. Broadly speaking a majority of US are Anti-War, they may not be in the specifically Left version of Anti-War or may not have specific stances on Isreal/Palestine but the Left has got to make their case on that

 
D:9362An_62190 ( 650.8763 points)
Fri, September 4, 2020 06:30:48 AM UTC0:00
?s=20 unofficial results from franklin. auchincloss did quite well here

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