https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1310599519818653696?s=20 it seems more like biden's latino problem is mainly in florida. assuming theres a big cuban swing towards trump this year

https://twitter.com/MariaESalinas/status/1313430404586786818

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1316370516081545216

The St. Pete Poll had Biden ahead 58-39 among the 60% who reported that they had already voted. As of this morning, the party breakdown of people who have already voted is 43.3 D / 36.0 R / 1.2 other / 19.5 no party. This implies that independents who have already voted are breaking about 75-15 for Biden. Left leaning independents may be more likely to vote early than right leaning independents, but that margin is huge.

The St. Pete Poll had Biden ahead 58-39 among the 60% who reported that they had already voted. As of this morning, the party breakdown of people who have already voted is 43.3 D / 36.0 R / 1.2 other / 19.5 no party. This implies that independents who have already voted are breaking about 75-15 for Biden. Left leaning independents may be more likely to vote early than right leaning independents, but that margin is huge. Early voting numbers have been tremendously encouraging outside of Florida. At this point, I think that Florida tilts towards Trump if Election Day voters turn out as expected. I'll take North Carolina over Florida, though, as it has more implications for the Midwestern states.

I'm sure there are outside groups that are still on the air, or the campaign has determined there are more persuadable voters in the Midwest (campaign continuing to spend in MN, MI, OH, & PA). https://twitter.com/MikeDelMoro/status/1321166197161922562

Trump needs Florida - without it he would have to win not only all of WI/MI/PA but also all of AZ/GA/NC as well. Surely they don't feel so comfortable about winning the state that they don't need ads. The early vote is up to about 67% of 2016 turnout, but with turnout higher this year and partisans more likely to vote early that leaves alot of potentially persuadable voters on the table.

https://twitter.com/michaelscherer/status/1321185601643753473

https://twitter.com/i/status/1322214250413215744 This mail center in Miamai has bins and bins of ballots that have been there over a week! No wonder Democratic turnout seems lower there.

I am going to Call Florida because Trump is out preforming his 2016 margin and they called it with bout the same number of precincts reporting.

We call states when the news organizations do, not on our own feelings.

Feel free to remove check mark

Anyone have results by CD I want to see if Trump flipped. 26 and 27.

Anyone have results by CD I want to see if Trump flipped. 26 and 27. It'll probably take someone a while to calculate it from the precinct data.

I don't really understand how Biden is "socialist", but the Cubans and Venezuelans REALLY hate it.

image://scontent-ort2-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/124026635_10218368848357856_7008069013734354177_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&ccb=2&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=f2zSVODfYeoAX96dqPR&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-2.xx&oh=2e18560076c2af50dd2d867715863639&oe=5FCB9ECD

the ability to pull AP election results is helpful when the AP has the same totals as the certified results (aside from the write-ins, which can be filled in without much stress)

Cook Political Report is doing a good job with certified results and updating them regularly too. There is also the ability to dl in excel or CSV https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker

Please note state senate results for southern Miami-Dade only include percentages.

State house results https://mcimaps.com/how-floridas-state-house-districts-voted-in-2020/