Nevada is always gonna be close no matter who wins it. This one poll three months out isn't indicative of anything except that the race is a tossup. I still think Rosen has a good chance to overcome because of the national environment. I don't see Heller winning in a state that Clinton won in 2016, especially now that Democrats are more energized.

Heller has won 4 statewide elections as NV Secretary of State in 1994, 1998, 2002 & United States Senator in 2012. I think he might pull this off.

https://twitter.com/RileySnyder/status/1038209630063620096

I'm not up to speed with the cultural right. Does Steven Spielberg really haunt people in their nightmares?

pretty sure the gambling elites aren't out to sell Nevada either

RBH: At least they'll have the Raiders coming to Las Vegas in a few years.

NV US Senate Debate tonight: this will be the ONLY debate between Heller & Rosen. CBS 8 KLAS-TV Las Vegas is hosting it. https://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/19/heres-how-watch-tonights-heller-vs-rosen-debate-senate-seat/1697626002/ It will also be broadcast on C-SPAN: https://www.c-span.org/video/?452952-1/nevada-senate-debate

Interesting stats from political scientist Jacob Smith: Recent NV RCP final average: -2008 POTUS: Obama +6.4; actual Obama +12.5. -2010 Sen: Angle +2.7; actual Reid +5.6. -2012 POTUS: Obama +2.8, actual Obama +6.7. -2012 Sen: Heller +4, actual Heller +1.2. -2016 POTUS: Trump +0.8, actual HRC +2.4. -2016 Sen: CCM +1.8, actual CCM +2.4 http://www.twitter.com/jacobfhsmith/status/1055599959909765120

@IndyGeorgia It seems as though the numbers are fairly routinely off, but since there is a consistent pattern of the polls leaning towards the Democrats, that could spell trouble for Heller on election night.

The average does look to be getting more accurate from year to year. I guess you couldn't do comparisons for 2014. "2014 Gov: Sandoval +A LOT, actual Sandoval +STILL A LOT"

Jon Ralston will know the winners by the end of next week - his analysis of early voting is better than all the polling. So far, Nevada is a mixed bag: Democrats ahead in bellwether Washoe County (Reno) but Republicans have strong turnout in rural counties. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

I read Jon Ralston's Nevada blog daily. His grasp on Nevada numbers is greatly fascinating.

I have about 0% confidence in my picks for NV Senate, AZ Senate, and NV Governor. They will all be so close its gonna come down to turn-out. Polling has been all over the place.

To predict this race, all you need to do is check Jon Ralston's early voting blog after the early voting finishes Friday. Most votes in Nevada are cast early so it is a very good measure of turnout. So far, Rosen appears to be in better position than Heller.

Ipsos and Emerson are sorta propping up Heller's average here. in 2010, Sharron Angle had a lead of 2% in the polling average on here.. and she lost by almost 6. So it's a Nevada thing.

RBH: Laxalt has the family dynasty to help his chances in the contest for NV Governor.

It's like a black hole of idiocy...

Jon Ralston reports that yesterday's early voting was massive in Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno). Ralston has said that Democrats would need an edge in early voting of 40,000 in Clark County to feel comfortable and their lead there is 47,000 with early voting now over. Democrats also had higher turnout in Washoe, which has a Republican voter registration edge. Heller had a net lead of 20,000 votes from Washoe in the 2012 election - that's obviously not happening this time. While Ralston's official prediction will come out tomorrow, it looks like Heller's goose is cooked. There aren't enough rural votes to overcome Clark County without help from Washoe.

I wouldn't put too much stock in reading the early voting tea leaves. Ralston knows how Nevada operates in a normal election, but this may not be one. The early voting could simple be cannibalizing election day voting and when election day comes around those extra votes now could be missing from election day. Early voting in 2016 across the nation was looking very good for Democrats and we know how that turned out.

Nate Silver says to ignore early vote analysis... except Jon Ralston. His track record is better than the polls and most of the Nevada vote is already in. Ralston has a blog post up now: The bottom line: Republicans need a really good day Tuesday to stop Democrats from at least a pastel blue wave and it may get to navy blue if the Dems hold their own on Election Day. It appears that these elections are breaking for the Dems at the end. If I were Dean Heller, who has bucked large firewalls before (see 2012) and Adam Laxalt, I would be worried.

I give Ralston a lot of credibility. He was one of the very few people to predict Reid's 2010 win and did so by analyzing the early vote. Angle was so confident she shut her HQ down at 5pm while polls remained open for several more hours. Still, this is Trump's America, and anything can happen I suppose.

From Jon Ralston's prediction article: If Heller loses – and I am only slightly more confident of this prediction than I was of the one I made six years ago – there will be something Shakespearean in his being ousted by Rosen, who is in the contest because of a recommendation by Las Vegas Judge Elissa Cadish. Cadish should be a federal judge by now, but Heller, in an extraordinary act of demagoguery and pettiness, blocked her from becoming one in 2013. Now Cadish is poised to become a state Supreme Court justice and her bridesmaid, Rosen, is about to become a U.S. senator. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/predictions-for-tuesday

Nevada is lucky to have Ralston.

Heller held his own in Clark County--40.94% in 2012 vs 40.90% in 2018. However, Berkeley was at 49.97% while Rosen pushed that up to 55.06%.