Ifop-Fiducial projects an incredible 150+ seat gain for the National Rally to total between 240 and 270 deputies. The NPF is expected to do slightly better than NUPES; a 30+ seat gain to a high of 200 deputies. Ensemble! would lose a whopping 160+ seats, collapsing to between 60 and 90. The Republicans slip by about 10, to reach 30 to 50 deputies.https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/resultats-legislatives-2024-voici-a-quoi-pourrait-ressembler-la-future-assemblee-nationale-20240630
Ifop-Fiducial projects an incredible 150+ seat gain for the National Rally to total between 240 and 270 deputies. The NPF is expected to do slightly better than NUPES; a 30+ seat gain to a high of 200 deputies. Ensemble! would lose a whopping 160+ seats, collapsing to between 60 and 90. The Republicans slip by about 10, to reach 30 to 50 deputies.[Link]
As of now, RN candidates are in the lead in 206 constituencies, NFP in 61, Ensemble in 31 and LR in 15 https://www.lemonde.fr/resultats-elections/ The RN have qualified for the second round in 295 constituencies, the NFP in 242, Ensemble in 182, and LR in 44.
As of now, RN candidates are in the lead in 206 constituencies, NFP in 61, Ensemble in 31 and LR in 15 [Link] The RN have qualified for the second round in 295 constituencies, the NFP in 242, Ensemble in 182, and LR in 44.
How can a new government be formed or at the least be workable? Not one of the top three alliances will work with each other. See if you can successfully build a parliamentary majority with this simulator provided by Le Figaro https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/resultats-legislatives-tentez-de-composer-une-majorite-absolue-avec-notre-simulateur-de-coalitions-20240708 If by some miracle a cohabitation IV emerges, with an NFP PM, he could not govern. He'd have (to try) to rule by decree, which can only be done in a handful of areas, and the decree must be co-signed by the President. Macron will not sign off on NFP proposals built to undo virtually all of his hard-fought reforms, especially with regard to pensions. Every other area is subject to majority approval from a three-split assembly (in other words, there's not a chance in a freezed-over hell that any NFP-proposed rule, regulation or law will be passed). An NFP-led government would be powerless and made to look ridiculous - all show and tell, fire and brimstone.
For strategic reasons, Mélenchon should rescind his demand for an NFP government - it is guaranteed to fail, and its failure will destroy his alliance at the ballot box.
How can a new government be formed or at the least be workable? Not one of the top three alliances will work with each other. See if you can successfully build a parliamentary majority with this simulator provided by Le Figaro [Link] If by some miracle a cohabitation IV emerges, with an NFP PM, he could not govern. He'd have (to try) to rule by decree, which can only be done in a handful of areas, and the decree must be co-signed by the President. Macron will not sign off on NFP proposals built to undo virtually all of his hard-fought reforms, especially with regard to pensions. Every other area is subject to majority approval from a three-split assembly (in other words, there's not a chance in a freezed-over hell that any NFP-proposed rule, regulation or law will be passed). An NFP-led government would be powerless and made to look ridiculous - all show and tell, fire and brimstone.
For strategic reasons, Mélenchon should rescind his demand for an NFP government - it is guaranteed to fail, and its failure will destroy his alliance at the ballot box.
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