https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1775290510233514322

*Ernie Chambers has AWOKEN*

Looks like the legislature isn't likely to make the Pres EVs a winner take all. They voted against a procedural motion on it 8-36. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/nebraska-legislators-buck-trump-blocking-electoral-college-vote-change-rcna146321

Trump up 17 in a new Survey USA/SplitTicket poll. https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/31/we-polled-nebraska-and-its-second-district-heres-what-we-found/

Trump up 17 in a new Survey USA/SplitTicket poll. https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/31/we-polled-nebraska-and-its-second-district-heres-what-we-found/ Actually that isn't enough for Trump to win the 2nd. Trump runs up insane margins in the 3rd.

Sorry for whatever reason cant get the numbers to display for Kamala Harris

Trump will likely win this state by more than 20. Senators Fischer and Ricketts are also safe.

I added Harris to the primary. Not the most artful move, but it did the job.

Senator Fischer's race is as close as it can get. We'll see what happens.

If Trump is winning by less than 20 here it's not a good sign for his campaign at all. Yes, he'll win Nebraska but the margin of it will be something to watch.

Also I'd put Fischer at Likely Republican at the moment. She's absolutely not Safe but she's more than Likely to win because of the lean of the state.

If Trump is winning by less than 20 here it's not a good sign for his campaign at all. Yes, he'll win Nebraska but the margin of it will be something to watch. Right - if Trump is held to the mid-50% range, that may put the CD-01 electoral vote in play too.

I downgraded Fisher to Strong from Safe but don't really expect that race to be much closer than that. Evan McMullin and Greg Orman have taught me not to trust Independent challengers. The theory of stringing together a coalition of nonpartisans and disaffected Republicans, all while remaining the de facto Democratic candidate hasn't really proven itself in these deep red states. Trump's 2020 statewide margin of victory was about 4 points higher than his overall showing in NE-01. If Survey USA's 17-point statewide lead for Trump holds and everything else correlates (which is a dicey assumption) then Trump ends up carrying NE-01 by 13 points.

Way too many undecideds in the Senate race. Most of them will default to the state lean.

Harris up 15 in the CD-2 split of this poll (sample size under 200)

you can tell the difference between the Fischer and Osborn internals because one has Trump up by 20 with Harris at 37 and the other has Trump up by 20 with Harris at 38

Harris is running way ahead of Biden throughout Nebraska, with twice the support in some rural counties.

Okay Harris is generally running 10% ahead of Biden in 2020, which if it holds will get to a 49-49% race in Nebraska.

Okay Harris is generally running 10% ahead of Biden in 2020, which if it holds will get to a 49-49% race in Nebraska. LOL