Poll Average Details- NE US President - 2024-11-05 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Donald J. Trump Perry Johnson	Kamala Harris Dean Phillips	Jill Stein	Write-In	Cornel West	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat
Change Research	10/31	X 1.00000		57.0000 - -1.2828 bias	39.0000 - 1.7383 bias
YouGov	10/28	X 0.95000		55.0000 - -0.0047 bias	40.0000 - 1.4663 bias				1.0000 - 3.6071 bias
Siena Research Institute	10/26	X 0.91667		55.0000 - -0.2762 bias	40.0000 - 0.8995 bias
Torchlight Strategies	10/8	X 0.61667		57.0000 - bias	37.0000 - bias
Bullfinch Group	10/1	X 0.50000		48.0000 - bias	38.0000 - bias
Survey USA	9/23	X 0.36667		56.0000 - 0.3321 bias	40.0000 - 0.6087 bias
TOTAL				55.349121	38.154249	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	-2.607100