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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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CA District 45
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Parents |
> United States > California > CA - District 45
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Office | House of Representatives |
Honorific | Representative - Abbr: Rep. |
Type | General Election |
Filing Deadline | 00, 0000 - 12:00pm Central |
Polls Open | November 05, 2024 - 09:00am Central |
Polls Close | November 05, 2024 - 10:00pm Central |
Term Start | January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm |
Term End | January 03, 2027 - 12:00pm |
Turnout |
77.05% Registered
49.43% Total Population
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Contributor | RP |
Last Modified | RBH December 13, 2024 04:57pm |
Data Sources | [Link] |
Description |
Incumbent (R) in 2020 Biden District
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DISCUSSION |
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D:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1066.4170 points)
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Fri, November 15, 2024 07:37:17 AM UTC0:00
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She's done.
She's done.
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
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Sat, November 16, 2024 03:34:02 AM UTC0:00
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Today's update was just 874 votes from Orange County and 94 from Los Angeles County. Tran did well (59% from Orange and 65% from L.A.), but he will have to wait another day before he takes the lead. My current estimate for his winning margin is 2,824 votes.
Today's update was just 874 votes from Orange County and 94 from Los Angeles County. Tran did well (59% from Orange and 65% from L.A.), but he will have to wait another day before he takes the lead. My current estimate for his winning margin is 2,824 votes.
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
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Sun, November 17, 2024 01:12:18 AM UTC0:00
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Orange County reported results from 1,154 ballots today. Tran got 54% of them, putting him in the lead by 36 votes. My projection is now that Tran will win by 2,705 votes.
Orange County reported results from 1,154 ballots today. Tran got 54% of them, putting him in the lead by 36 votes. My projection is now that Tran will win by 2,705 votes.
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
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Tue, November 19, 2024 02:48:13 AM UTC0:00
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Steel had a relatively good day in today's count, but Tran still got 52% in both Orange and Los Angeles Counties to extend his lead to 102 votes. Based on how the returns have come in over the last week, I am projecting Tran to win by 2,459 votes.
Steel had a relatively good day in today's count, but Tran still got 52% in both Orange and Los Angeles Counties to extend his lead to 102 votes. Based on how the returns have come in over the last week, I am projecting Tran to win by 2,459 votes.
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
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Wed, November 20, 2024 01:59:39 AM UTC0:00
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Tran continues to extend his lead with today's results dump. Here is the projection for Tran:
Current: +314
Los Angeles County (~464 ballots remaining): +76 votes
Orange County (~10,708 ballots remaining): +1,646 votes
Add it up and you get a projected Tran win by 2,036 votes.
Tran continues to extend his lead with today's results dump. Here is the projection for Tran:
Current: +314
Los Angeles County (~464 ballots remaining): +76 votes
Orange County (~10,708 ballots remaining): +1,646 votes
Add it up and you get a projected Tran win by 2,036 votes.
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
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Thu, November 21, 2024 01:38:58 AM UTC0:00
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Tran didn't do as well in Orange County (53%) today as he had been doing, but he is still expanding his lead. Here is the current projection for Tran:
Current: +397
Los Angeles County (~464 ballots remaining): +76 votes
Orange County (~8,232 ballots remaining): +1,117 votes
Projection: Tran +1,590
Tran didn't do as well in Orange County (53%) today as he had been doing, but he is still expanding his lead. Here is the current projection for Tran:
Current: +397
Los Angeles County (~464 ballots remaining): +76 votes
Orange County (~8,232 ballots remaining): +1,117 votes
Projection: Tran +1,590
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
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Fri, November 22, 2024 01:29:43 AM UTC0:00
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Tran did about the same in Orange County today as he did yesterday (52.9%) and only got 55.5% out of Los Angeles County. He is still expanding his lead, just not as fast as he was. Here is the current projection for Tran:
Current: +480
Los Angeles County (~342 ballots remaining): +54 votes
Orange County (~6,628 ballots remaining): +867 votes
Projection: Tran +1,401
Tran did about the same in Orange County today as he did yesterday (52.9%) and only got 55.5% out of Los Angeles County. He is still expanding his lead, just not as fast as he was. Here is the current projection for Tran:
Current: +480
Los Angeles County (~342 ballots remaining): +54 votes
Orange County (~6,628 ballots remaining): +867 votes
Projection: Tran +1,401
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
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Sat, November 23, 2024 04:46:08 AM UTC0:00
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Tran only got 52% in Orange County today, but that still expands his lead. I have revised my projection methodology for Orange County to be based on only the last 6 updates since Tran hasn't come close to matching his vote share in the initial late ballots. Los Angeles County did not update today and is not expected to do so before Tuesday. Here is the current projection for Tran:
Current: +519
Los Angeles County (~342 ballots remaining): +54 votes
Orange County (~5,561 ballots remaining): +349 votes
Projection: Tran +922
Tran only got 52% in Orange County today, but that still expands his lead. I have revised my projection methodology for Orange County to be based on only the last 6 updates since Tran hasn't come close to matching his vote share in the initial late ballots. Los Angeles County did not update today and is not expected to do so before Tuesday. Here is the current projection for Tran:
Current: +519
Los Angeles County (~342 ballots remaining): +54 votes
Orange County (~5,561 ballots remaining): +349 votes
Projection: Tran +922
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I:11727 | LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
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Sun, November 24, 2024 06:39:05 AM UTC0:00
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It's over Tran won.
It's over Tran won.
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
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Tue, November 26, 2024 01:34:37 AM UTC0:00
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Tran got 55.1% in Orange County today. Here is the current projection for Tran:
Current: +581
Los Angeles County (~342 ballots remaining): +54 votes
Orange County (~3,763 ballots remaining): +235 votes
Projection: Tran +870
Tran got 55.1% in Orange County today. Here is the current projection for Tran:
Current: +581
Los Angeles County (~342 ballots remaining): +54 votes
Orange County (~3,763 ballots remaining): +235 votes
Projection: Tran +870
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
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Wed, November 27, 2024 01:26:42 AM UTC0:00
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Los Angeles County reported a whopping 32 ballots today while Tran got 52.0% in Orange County. Here is the current projection for Tran:
Current: +613
Los Angeles County (~209 ballots remaining): +33 votes
Orange County (~2,632 ballots remaining): +160 votes
Projection: Tran +806
Los Angeles County reported a whopping 32 ballots today while Tran got 52.0% in Orange County. Here is the current projection for Tran:
Current: +613
Los Angeles County (~209 ballots remaining): +33 votes
Orange County (~2,632 ballots remaining): +160 votes
Projection: Tran +806
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I:11727 | LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
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Wed, November 27, 2024 01:48:56 AM UTC0:00
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Put a checkmark next to Tran, it's over.
Put a checkmark next to Tran, it's over.
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Steel has conceded.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/michelle-steel-concedes-defeat-in-california-house-race-in-key-win-for-democrats/ar-AA1uShfV
Steel has conceded.
[Link]
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D:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1066.4170 points)
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Thu, November 28, 2024 03:00:39 AM UTC0:00
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What an upset.
What an upset.
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