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  CA District 45
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > California > CA - District 45
OfficeHouse of Representatives
HonorificRepresentative - Abbr: Rep.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline 00, 0000 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 05, 2024 - 09:00am Central
Polls Close November 05, 2024 - 10:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2027 - 12:00pm
Turnout 77.05% Registered 49.43% Total Population
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRBH December 13, 2024 04:57pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description Incumbent (R) in 2020 Biden District
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2022
NameMichelle Park Steel Votes113,960 (52.41%)
Term01/03/2023 - 01/03/2025 Margin10,494 (+4.83%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Mar 05, 2024 CA District 45 - Open Primary
Michelle Park Steel
R 78,022D 64,097
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/06/2024 11/05/2024
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Michelle Park Steel 8 2 1 --
Tossup 3 ------
Derek Tran 2 ------
Leaning Call: Michelle Park Steel (75.00%)
Weighted Call: Michelle Park Steel (85.16%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

07/29/2024 09/21/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Derek Tran (I) Rep. Michelle Park Steel  
PartyDemocratic Republican  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 158,264 (50.10%) 157,611 (49.90%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -653 (-0.21%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 6/30 $1,156,780.12 6/30 $3,792,957.75  
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]  
Entry Date -- --  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (3 from 3 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg43.78%-- 45.45%--  
USC Dornsife/LA Times 
09/14/24-09/21/24
44.80% -- 43.30% --
Tulchin Research 
09/14/24-09/19/24
47.00% -- 45.00% --
Normington, Petts & Associates (D) 
07/29/24-07/31/24
47.00% -- 47.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements  


EVENTS
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NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Aug 30, 2024 09:00am News Will a Vietnamese American candidate help Democrats win a congressional seat in Little Saigon?  Article BrentinCO 

DISCUSSION
 
D:6149Campari_007 ( 1066.4170 points)
Fri, November 15, 2024 07:37:17 AM UTC0:00
She's done.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Sat, November 16, 2024 03:34:02 AM UTC0:00
Today's update was just 874 votes from Orange County and 94 from Los Angeles County. Tran did well (59% from Orange and 65% from L.A.), but he will have to wait another day before he takes the lead. My current estimate for his winning margin is 2,824 votes.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Sun, November 17, 2024 01:12:18 AM UTC0:00
Orange County reported results from 1,154 ballots today. Tran got 54% of them, putting him in the lead by 36 votes. My projection is now that Tran will win by 2,705 votes.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Tue, November 19, 2024 02:48:13 AM UTC0:00
Steel had a relatively good day in today's count, but Tran still got 52% in both Orange and Los Angeles Counties to extend his lead to 102 votes. Based on how the returns have come in over the last week, I am projecting Tran to win by 2,459 votes.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Wed, November 20, 2024 01:59:39 AM UTC0:00
Tran continues to extend his lead with today's results dump. Here is the projection for Tran:

Current: +314
Los Angeles County (~464 ballots remaining): +76 votes
Orange County (~10,708 ballots remaining): +1,646 votes

Add it up and you get a projected Tran win by 2,036 votes.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Thu, November 21, 2024 01:38:58 AM UTC0:00
Tran didn't do as well in Orange County (53%) today as he had been doing, but he is still expanding his lead. Here is the current projection for Tran:

Current: +397
Los Angeles County (~464 ballots remaining): +76 votes
Orange County (~8,232 ballots remaining): +1,117 votes

Projection: Tran +1,590

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Fri, November 22, 2024 01:29:43 AM UTC0:00
Tran did about the same in Orange County today as he did yesterday (52.9%) and only got 55.5% out of Los Angeles County. He is still expanding his lead, just not as fast as he was. Here is the current projection for Tran:

Current: +480
Los Angeles County (~342 ballots remaining): +54 votes
Orange County (~6,628 ballots remaining): +867 votes

Projection: Tran +1,401

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Sat, November 23, 2024 04:46:08 AM UTC0:00
Tran only got 52% in Orange County today, but that still expands his lead. I have revised my projection methodology for Orange County to be based on only the last 6 updates since Tran hasn't come close to matching his vote share in the initial late ballots. Los Angeles County did not update today and is not expected to do so before Tuesday. Here is the current projection for Tran:

Current: +519
Los Angeles County (~342 ballots remaining): +54 votes
Orange County (~5,561 ballots remaining): +349 votes

Projection: Tran +922

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Sun, November 24, 2024 06:39:05 AM UTC0:00
It's over Tran won.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Tue, November 26, 2024 01:34:37 AM UTC0:00
Tran got 55.1% in Orange County today. Here is the current projection for Tran:

Current: +581
Los Angeles County (~342 ballots remaining): +54 votes
Orange County (~3,763 ballots remaining): +235 votes

Projection: Tran +870

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Wed, November 27, 2024 01:26:42 AM UTC0:00
Los Angeles County reported a whopping 32 ballots today while Tran got 52.0% in Orange County. Here is the current projection for Tran:

Current: +613
Los Angeles County (~209 ballots remaining): +33 votes
Orange County (~2,632 ballots remaining): +160 votes

Projection: Tran +806

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, November 27, 2024 01:48:56 AM UTC0:00
Put a checkmark next to Tran, it's over.

 
PoP:11714KeystoneProgressive ( -7.6004 points)
Wed, November 27, 2024 09:26:27 PM UTC0:00
Steel has conceded.

[Link]

 
D:6149Campari_007 ( 1066.4170 points)
Thu, November 28, 2024 03:00:39 AM UTC0:00
What an upset.