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  CA District 45
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > California > CA - District 45
OfficeHouse of Representatives
HonorificRepresentative - Abbr: Rep.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline 00, 0000 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 05, 2024 - 09:00am Central
Polls Close November 05, 2024 - 10:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2027 - 12:00pm
Turnout 59.64% Registered 38.26% Total Population
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedMr. Matt November 08, 2024 10:01am
Data Sources[Link]
Description Incumbent (R) in 2020 Biden District
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2022
NameMichelle Park Steel Votes113,960 (52.41%)
Term01/03/2023 - 01/03/2025 Margin10,494 (+4.83%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Mar 05, 2024 CA District 45 - Open Primary
Michelle Park Steel
R 78,022D 64,097
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/06/2024 11/05/2024
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Michelle Park Steel 8 2 1 --
Tossup 3 ------
Derek Tran 2 ------
Leaning Call: Michelle Park Steel (75.00%)
Weighted Call: Michelle Park Steel (86.80%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

07/29/2024 09/21/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) Rep. Michelle Park Steel Derek Tran  
PartyRepublican Democratic  
Campaign Logo  
Uncertified Votes (71.82% in) 126,924 (51.91%) 117,564 (48.09%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -9,360 (-3.83%)  
Estimated Final176,550 (51.86%) 163,862 (48.14%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 6/30 $3,792,957.75 6/30 $1,156,780.12  
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]  
Entry Date -- --  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (3 from 3 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg45.45%-- 43.78%--  
USC Dornsife/LA Times 
09/14/24-09/21/24		 43.30% -- 44.80% --
Tulchin Research 
09/14/24-09/19/24		 45.00% -- 47.00% --
Normington, Petts & Associates (D) 
07/29/24-07/31/24		 47.00% -- 47.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R Maryland Republican93
I Elon Musk 🔗
W Arthur
R Thanh Dang 🔗
  Los Angeles Times
D KeystoneProgressive
  Red to Blue
D NCdem
 


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NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Aug 30, 2024 09:00am News Will a Vietnamese American candidate help Democrats win a congressional seat in Little Saigon?  Article BrentinCO 

DISCUSSION
 
D:11714KeystoneProgressive ( -7.6004 points)
Fri, September 6, 2024 03:32:17 PM UTC0:00
Steel got around 55% of the open primary vote in this year's open primary, and she was the only Republican. But this was also when Biden was in the race. I don't think Steel will get as much as 55%, but I also don't see Steel doing worse here than she did in 2022. So my prediction is Lean Steel.
 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Sat, September 7, 2024 01:02:33 AM UTC0:00
There's also David Min running for Katie Porter's seat.
 
D:6086Jason (11913.3682 points)
Tue, September 24, 2024 06:23:34 PM UTC0:00
Presidential preference question in the USC poll:

Harris: 49.5%
Trump: 41.2%

Biden carried the district by 6 in 2020.
 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Wed, September 25, 2024 04:18:31 PM UTC0:00
I mistakenly added a duplicate poll here. Please delete it.
 
D:6149Campari_007 ( 1066.4170 points)
Sat, October 19, 2024 03:49:54 PM UTC0:00


Steel in trouble.