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  CA District 45
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > California > CA - District 45
OfficeHouse of Representatives
HonorificRepresentative - Abbr: Rep.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline 00, 0000 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 05, 2024 - 09:00am Central
Polls Close November 05, 2024 - 10:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2027 - 12:00pm
Turnout 75.95% Registered 48.71% Total Population
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedCA Pol Junkie November 20, 2024 07:39pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description Incumbent (R) in 2020 Biden District
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2022
NameMichelle Park Steel Votes113,960 (52.41%)
Term01/03/2023 - 01/03/2025 Margin10,494 (+4.83%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Mar 05, 2024 CA District 45 - Open Primary
Michelle Park Steel
R 78,022D 64,097
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/06/2024 11/05/2024
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Michelle Park Steel 8 2 1 --
Tossup 3 ------
Derek Tran 2 ------
Leaning Call: Michelle Park Steel (75.00%)
Weighted Call: Michelle Park Steel (88.32%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

07/29/2024 09/21/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Derek Tran (I) Rep. Michelle Park Steel  
PartyDemocratic Republican  
Campaign Logo  
Uncertified Votes (95.35% in) 155,862 (50.06%) 155,465 (49.94%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -397 (-0.13%)  
Estimated Final163,069 (50.00%) 163,088 (50.00%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 6/30 $1,156,780.12 6/30 $3,792,957.75  
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]  
Entry Date -- --  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (3 from 3 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg43.78%-- 45.45%--  
USC Dornsife/LA Times 
09/14/24-09/21/24
44.80% -- 43.30% --
Tulchin Research 
09/14/24-09/19/24
47.00% -- 45.00% --
Normington, Petts & Associates (D) 
07/29/24-07/31/24
47.00% -- 47.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements  


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NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Aug 30, 2024 09:00am News Will a Vietnamese American candidate help Democrats win a congressional seat in Little Saigon?  Article BrentinCO 

DISCUSSION
[View All
7
Previous Messages]
 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Tue, November 19, 2024 02:48:13 AM UTC0:00
Steel had a relatively good day in today's count, but Tran still got 52% in both Orange and Los Angeles Counties to extend his lead to 102 votes. Based on how the returns have come in over the last week, I am projecting Tran to win by 2,459 votes.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Wed, November 20, 2024 01:59:39 AM UTC0:00
Tran continues to extend his lead with today's results dump. Here is the projection for Tran:

Current: +314
Los Angeles County (~464 ballots remaining): +76 votes
Orange County (~10,708 ballots remaining): +1,646 votes

Add it up and you get a projected Tran win by 2,036 votes.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Thu, November 21, 2024 01:38:58 AM UTC0:00
Tran didn't do as well in Orange County (53%) today as he had been doing, but he is still expanding his lead. Here is the current projection for Tran:

Current: +397
Los Angeles County (~464 ballots remaining): +76 votes
Orange County (~8,232 ballots remaining): +1,117 votes

Projection: Tran +1,590