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  AK At-Large
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Alaska > AK - At-Large
OfficeHouse of Representatives
HonorificRepresentative - Abbr: Rep.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline June 01, 2024 - 05:00pm Central
Polls Open November 05, 2024 - 10:00am Central
Polls Close November 05, 2024 - 11:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2027 - 12:00pm
Turnout 64.34% Registered 50.79% Total Population
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedPaul November 17, 2024 06:34am
Data Sources[Link]
[Link]
Description Nancy Dahlstrom withdrew on 08/23/2024. John Howe elevated to fourth candidate after previously placing fifth in the primary.

Matthew Salisbury withdrew, advancing 6th place finisher Eric Hafner to this election.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/08/2022
NameMary Sattler Peltola Votes137,263 (54.96%)
Term01/03/2023 - 01/03/2025 Margin24,792 (+9.93%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Aug 20, 2024 AK At-Large - Open Primary
Nick Begich III
D 55,633R 51,453AKI 621N 438NoL 143I 119
LBT 0
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
08/05/2024 11/05/2024
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Mary Sattler Peltola 11 1 ----
Tossup 2 ------
Nick Begich III 3 ------
Leaning Call: Mary Sattler Peltola (72.22%)
Weighted Call: Mary Sattler Peltola (86.73%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

08/30/2024 10/18/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Nick Begich III (I) Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola John W. Howe Eric Hafner (W) Write-In  
PartyRepublican Democratic Alaskan Independence Democratic Nonpartisan  
Campaign Logo  
Uncertified Votes (97.60% in) 155,120 (48.72%) 146,782 (46.10%) 12,544 (3.94%) 3,257 (1.02%) 719 (0.23%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -8,338 (-2.62%) -142,576 (-44.78%) -151,863 (-47.69%) -154,401 (-48.49%)  
Estimated Final154,081 (48.70%) 146,555 (46.32%) 12,538 (3.96%) 3,233 (1.02%) 736 (0.23%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 6/30 $234,634.59 6/30 $3,338,609.25 $-- $-- $--  
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Website]  
Entry Date 01/01/2024 01/01/2023 06/01/2024 09/01/2024 06/01/2024  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (3 from 2 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg45.22%-- 43.69%-- 4.00%-- 2.20%-- 0.00%--  
Cygnal (R) 
10/14/24-10/18/24
49.10% 4.1 44.50% 1.5 4.00% -- 2.40% -- 0.00% --
American Viewpoint (R) 
09/14/24-09/17/24
44.00% -- 40.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Cygnal (R) 
08/30/24-09/01/24
45.00% -- 46.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Matthew H. Salisbury (R)
Jun 01, 2024 - Sep 01, 2024
Nancy Dahlstrom (R)
Aug 23, 2024

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Sep 03, 2024 11:00am News Alaska’s open primary, ranked-choice voting system: So slick it put a felon on Nov. 5 ballot for Congress  Article Zeus the Moose 
Aug 23, 2024 04:05pm News Alaska Republican [Dahlstrom] drops out of three-way House race, dealing surprise blow to Democrats nationally  Article BrentinCO 

DISCUSSION
[View All
10
Previous Messages]
 
D:6149Campari_007 ( 1066.4170 points)
Sun, November 17, 2024 08:21:09 AM UTC0:00
To be fair I honestly felt Peltola was one of those politicians that could hold back a national tide and Alaska tends to hold onto it's representatives for a long time. So a bit of a surprise. Call her a conservative dem or what you will she has to represent Alaska which has many different challenges compared to the lower 48. Her being endorsed by the NRA was not a negative here, It's a massive state and frankly I'd probably carry a gun here because of how remote it can be.

 
W:11230Arthur ( -72.3830 points)
Sun, November 17, 2024 12:30:32 PM UTC0:00
Peltola's not much of an electoral juggernaut when her opposition is united and she's running against only one Republican, color me shocked.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Sun, November 17, 2024 02:12:20 PM UTC0:00
Decision Desk HQ called it for Begich

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Sun, November 17, 2024 03:41:43 PM UTC0:00
LSjustbloggin: Decision Desk called it for Begich

Although Begich may be the favorite, it seems premature to call it before the Top 4 reallocation of second choice votes.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -405.4800 points)
Sun, November 17, 2024 03:48:52 PM UTC0:00
I told you all, its just basic math.

BEGICH was the reason Peltola was winning in the first place, as his votes would push her over the edge

Making him the her primary opposition was the only way to stop her from winning

 
D:6086Jason (11913.3682 points)
Sun, November 17, 2024 04:15:56 PM UTC0:00
Alaska's "independent streak" over. Partisan hack state like most.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 0.0000 points)
Sun, November 17, 2024 11:31:32 PM UTC0:00
Say goodbye to the first native Alaskan in Congress. She's being replaced by the grandson of the Congressman who disappeared with the House Majority Leader in 1972.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 7748.4790 points)
Mon, November 18, 2024 04:27:51 PM UTC0:00
Not sure how people are calling this race so early. Begich is under 50%. Its going to come down to redistributed votes under RCV.