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  CA US Senate - Open Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > California > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
Type Primary Election
Filing Deadline December 08, 2023 - 04:00pm Central
Polls Open March 05, 2024 - 09:00am Central
Polls Close March 05, 2024 - 10:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2031 - 12:00pm
# Winners2
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRBH July 20, 2024 07:24pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won10/01/2023
NameLaphonza Butler Votes1 (100.00%)
Term10/03/2023 - 01/03/2025 Margin1 (+100.00%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/05/2024
NameAdam Schiff Votes8,837,051 (58.75%)
Term11/06/2024 - 01/03/2025 Margin2,632,414 (+17.50%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceCA US Senate - Special Election 11/05/2024
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
01/10/2023 03/05/2024
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Katie Porter 3 ------
Adam Schiff 8 1 --1
Steve Garvey 2 ------
Leaning Call: Adam Schiff (73.68%)
Weighted Call: Adam Schiff (64.57%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

11/19/2022 02/27/2024

CANDIDATES (2 Winners)
Photo
Name Rep. Adam Schiff Steve Garvey Rep. Katie Porter Rep. Barbara Lee Eric Early James P. Bradley Christina Pascucci
PartyDemocratic Republican Democratic Democratic Republican Republican Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 2,304,829 (31.57%) 2,301,351 (31.52%) 1,118,429 (15.32%) 717,129 (9.82%) 242,055 (3.32%) 98,778 (1.35%) 61,998 (0.85%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -3,478 (-0.05%) -1,186,400 (-16.25%) -1,587,700 (-21.75%) -2,062,774 (-28.25%) -2,206,051 (-30.21%) -2,242,831 (-30.72%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 6/30 $29,800,864.00 $0.00 6/30 $10,383,669.00 6/30 $1,400,816.75 6/30 $80,343.22 3/31 $73.28 $0.00
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 01/26/2023 10/10/2023 01/10/2023 02/21/2023 04/11/2023 06/30/2023 10/18/2023
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (15 from 6 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg26.93%-- 23.88%-- 17.93%-- 7.93%-- 1.21%-- 1.21%-- 0.00%--
Emerson College 
02/24/24-02/27/24
32.00% 7.0 22.00% 4.0 20.00% 7.0 11.00% 3.0 0.00% 3.0 0.00% 2.0 0.00% 2.0
University of California - Berkeley 
02/22/24-02/27/24
25.00% 9.0 27.00% 17.0 19.00% 2.0 8.00% 1.0 2.00% 2.0 2.00% 5.0 0.00% 1.0
Emerson College 
02/16/24-02/18/24
28.00% -- 22.00% -- 16.00% -- 9.00% -- 2.00% -- 2.00% -- 2.00% --
Emerson College 
01/11/24-01/14/24
25.00% 10.0 18.00% -- 13.00% 1.0 8.00% 2.0 3.00% -- 2.00% 2.0 2.00% --
University of California - Berkeley 
01/04/24-01/08/24
21.00% 1.0 17.00% 10.0 18.00% 1.0 12.00% 5.0 11.00% 6.0 0.00% 7.0 2.00% --
Morning Consult 
12/15/23-12/19/23
28.00% -- 19.00% -- 17.00% -- 14.00% -- 7.00% -- 7.00% -- 4.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
G Sedinam Kinamo Moyowasifza-Curry ๐Ÿ”—
WFP BigZuck08
I Cornel West ๐Ÿ”—
D Gloria Steinem ๐Ÿ”—
D Michael A. Nutter ๐Ÿ”—
? James Lawson ๐Ÿ”—
D Maya Harris ๐Ÿ”—
D Ben Cohen ๐Ÿ”—
D Stacey Abrams ๐Ÿ”—
  Congressional Black Caucus
  Americans for Democratic Action
  Sacramento Bee
  Modesto Bee
  Merced Sun-Star
  Los Angeles Sentinel
  Fresno Bee
  Bay Area Reporter
  Progressive Democrats of America
  Reproductive Freedom for All
  Our Revolution
  Harvey Milk LGBT Democratic Club
WFP Working Families Party
  Alice B. Toklas LGBT Democratic Club
CW Juan Croniqueur
D Derek Marshall ๐Ÿ”—
D John Burton ๐Ÿ”—
D Michael D. Cohen ๐Ÿ”—
D Geoff Young ๐Ÿ”—
D Pramila Jayapal ๐Ÿ”—
  The Collective PAC
D Ilhan Omar ๐Ÿ”—
D Sydney Kamlager-Dove ๐Ÿ”—
D Rohit "Ro" Khanna ๐Ÿ”—
D Buffy Wicks ๐Ÿ”—
D Janice D. "Jan" Schakowsky ๐Ÿ”—
D Sheila Jackson Lee ๐Ÿ”—
D Nikema Williams ๐Ÿ”—
D Marilyn Strickland ๐Ÿ”—
D Carol Moseley Braun ๐Ÿ”—
D Karen R. Bass ๐Ÿ”—
I Bill Paparian ๐Ÿ”—
I E Pluribus Unum
D Keith M. Ellison ๐Ÿ”—
D Lucy McBath ๐Ÿ”—
D Dolores Huerta ๐Ÿ”—
D Cheri Beasley ๐Ÿ”—
D Cedric L. Richmond ๐Ÿ”—
D Lucille E. Roybal-Allard ๐Ÿ”—
D London Breed ๐Ÿ”—
D Willie L. Brown, Jr. ๐Ÿ”—
D Libby Schaaf ๐Ÿ”—
N Kate Harrison ๐Ÿ”—
N Mark Humbert ๐Ÿ”—
D Rebecca Kaplan ๐Ÿ”—
N Jael P. Myrick ๐Ÿ”—
D Janani Ramachandran ๐Ÿ”—
N Treva Reid ๐Ÿ”—
N Rigel Robinson ๐Ÿ”—
N Terry Taplin ๐Ÿ”—
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Sharleta Bassett Sarah Sun Liew Laura Garza Jonathan Reiss Sepi Gilani Gail K. Lightfoot Denice Gary-Pandol
PartyRepublican Republican No Party Affiliation Republican Democratic Libertarian Republican
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 54,884 (0.75%) 38,718 (0.53%) 34,529 (0.47%) 34,400 (0.47%) 34,316 (0.47%) 33,295 (0.46%) 25,649 (0.35%)
Margin-2,249,945 (-30.82%) -2,266,111 (-31.04%) -2,270,300 (-31.09%) -2,270,429 (-31.10%) -2,270,513 (-31.10%) -2,271,534 (-31.11%) -2,279,180 (-31.22%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $0.00 $0.00 $-- 6/30 $859.84 $0.00 $-- 6/30 $2,229.12
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Website] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 12/08/2023 01/01/2023 01/01/2023 05/17/2023 01/01/2023 12/08/2023 06/27/2021
MATCHUP POLLS (15 from 6 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Emerson College 
02/24/24-02/27/24
0.00% -- 0.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of California - Berkeley 
02/22/24-02/27/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
02/16/24-02/18/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
01/11/24-01/14/24
0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% 1.0
University of California - Berkeley 
01/04/24-01/08/24
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
12/15/23-12/19/23
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
VIEW 17 MORE CANDIDATES

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Akinyemi Agbede (D)
Dec 01, 2023
Paul Kevin Anderson (G)
Dec 01, 2023
Dana Bobbitt (I)
Dec 01, 2023
Josh Bocanegra (D)
Dec 01, 2023
Jehu Thomas De Gerold Hand (R)
Dec 01, 2023
Jacob Farmos (D)
Dec 01, 2023
Jeremy Fennell (D)
Dec 01, 2023
Frank Ferreira (I)
Dec 01, 2023
Dian Foxington (D)
Dec 01, 2023
Carson Henry Franklin Jr. (D)
Dec 01, 2023
Zafar Inam (D)
Dec 01, 2023
Denard Ingram (D)
Dec 01, 2023
Fepbrina Keivaulqe Autiameineire (I)
Dec 01, 2023
Zakaira Mohamed Kortam (R)
Dec 01, 2023
Roxanne Lawler (R)
Jan 01, 2023 - Dec 01, 2023
Barack Obama Mandela (R)
Dec 01, 2023
Katie O'Neal Roedersheimer (I)
Dec 01, 2023
John Joseph Pappenheim (R)
Dec 01, 2023
Generic Republican (R)
Dec 01, 2023
Lexi Reese (D)
Jun 29, 2023 - Nov 28, 2023
Laphonza Butler (D)
Oct 19, 2023
Eleni Kounalakis (D)
Apr 24, 2023
Larry A. Elder (R)
Apr 22, 2023
Rohit "Ro" Khanna (D)
Mar 26, 2023
London Breed (D)
Feb 21, 2023
Libby Schaaf (D)
Feb 21, 2023
Holly J. Mitchell (D)
Feb 16, 2023
Dianne Feinstein (D)
Feb 14, 2023
Rob Bonta (D)
Feb 08, 2023
Eric M. Swalwell (D)
Feb 02, 2023

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
01/10/2024 Katie Porter TVAd Biography eng Shake Up The Senate  00:00:31 RP 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Nov 02, 2023 02:00pm News California Senate hopeful Rep. Adam Schiff claimed primary residences in Maryland and California  Article BrentinCO 
Oct 10, 2023 01:00pm News Why Katie Porter sounds like a Republican on Iran and Hamas  Article WA Indy 
Sep 10, 2023 01:00pm News Newsom would pick a caretaker โ€” not Barbara Lee โ€” for Senate seat  Article WA Indy 

DISCUSSION
[View All
65
Previous Messages]
 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
Tue, March 5, 2024 10:09:51 PM UTC0:00
I hate these games the blanket primary encourages.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 5444.7002 points)
Tue, March 5, 2024 10:26:02 PM UTC0:00
RP: I hate these games the blanket primary encourages.

I like both Schiff and Porter, but I voted for Porter because a) I want her to be in the general election and b) Schiff promoted Garvey to keep her from making the top 2.

 
LPP:10973Patrick ( 6.5582 points)
Wed, March 6, 2024 12:41:30 AM UTC0:00
RP: I hate these games the blanket primary encourages.

As a Porter supporter I agree, but it's a negative that's worth the trade off for a process that's actually more Democratic.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 756.1104 points)
Wed, March 6, 2024 04:38:13 AM UTC0:00
There is absolutely no chance in hell Garvey would win the general election.

Based on 27 percent of precincts reporting, I would say that the combined figure of Schiff and Porter ie. 53.5 percent, does indeed indicate that Garvey has essentially a zero percent chance of prevailing in the run-off.

 
W:11230Arthur ( 520.6107 points)
Wed, March 6, 2024 10:13:29 AM UTC0:00
I guess Porter quixotically running ads promoting Eric Early didn't split the GOP vote enough for her to get a runoff slot LOL. Good riddance.

 
LPP:10973Patrick ( 6.5582 points)
Wed, March 6, 2024 06:14:22 PM UTC0:00
Patrick: If Garvey gets over 35% in either election I will be floored

This is still a pretty surprising result I guess the appetite for a generic unknown Republican in CA is larger than I thought.

 
LPP:10973Patrick ( 6.5582 points)
Wed, March 6, 2024 06:18:08 PM UTC0:00
I hope all the boomer liberals that love Schiff enjoy their fond memories of the Trump impeachment while he ends up supporting a border wall compromise to raise the debt ceiling in 2025

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
x2
Wed, March 6, 2024 07:16:35 PM UTC0:00
Patrick: ...I guess the appetite for a generic unknown Republican in CA is larger than I thought.

In fairness he's not really an unknown. He has a name recognition in California from his distinguished baseball career - particularly because he played for both the LA Dodgers and SD Padres (helping the latter win a WS). He's no Arnold Schwarzenegger, but I'm sure his name recognition helped separate him from other Republicans and probably garnered him some D votes.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 756.1104 points)
Wed, March 6, 2024 10:39:24 PM UTC0:00
I hadn't thought abut him in decades until he ran, but I remember Steve Garvey from the 1980s. He was HUGE in California at that time.

 
LPP:10973Patrick ( 6.5582 points)
Thu, March 7, 2024 01:06:38 AM UTC0:00
I guess I meant "unknown" in the sense that he's a political blank slate, which is probably just as important as his name recognition.

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