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  Trafalgar Group
POLLING FIRM DETAILS
Websitehttps://www.thetrafalgargroup.org
Polls Conducted266
Points642.8744
AffiliationIndependent
Last ModifiedBrentinCO August 28, 2020 02:07pm
DescriptionFrom Presidential and major statewide campaigns to market research, we have delivered quality polling results to candidates and businesses at all levels. We were named the best polling firm of 2016 presidential race, and this year, Real Clear Politics called us “the most accurate pollster of the cycle among those firms that polled multiple Senate and governor races.”

Race Polls Conducted
Race Results Polls
2025-04-01 20:00:00
WI Supreme Court Justice
  Susan Crawford 1,301,128 55.00%
  Brad Schimel 1,063,244 44.94%
  Write-In 1,473 0.06%
03/28/2025-03/30/2025 (0.00% Undecided)
  Susan Crawford 51.0000 51.00  -4.00 +2.4605
  Brad Schimel 49.0000 49.00  +4.06 +1.6649
TOTAL +4.1254
2026-11-03 19:00:00
LA US Senate - R Primary
  William "Bill" Cassidy 0 0.06%
  Randall Arrington 0 0.06%
  John Fleming 0 0.06%
  Garret Graves 0 0.06%
  Xan John 0 0.06%
  Julia J. Letlow 0 0.06%
  Blake Miguez 0 0.06%
  Eric Skrmetta 0 0.06%
  Michael G. "Mike" Strain 0 0.06%
03/06/2025-03/10/2025 (5.20% Undecided)
  Clay Higgins 30.7000 32.30  
  William "Bill" Cassidy 23.5000 24.72  
  Julia J. Letlow 19.7000 20.72  
  John Fleming 16.8000 17.67  
  Blake Miguez 4.1000 4.31  
TOTAL +0.0000
03/06/2025-03/10/2025 (4.80% Undecided)
  Clay Higgins 39.2000 41.08  
  William "Bill" Cassidy 28.1000 29.45  
  John Fleming 24.6000 25.78  
  Blake Miguez 3.3000 3.46  
03/06/2025-03/10/2025 (5.60% Undecided)
  Clay Higgins 41.6000 43.93  
  William "Bill" Cassidy 28.3000 29.88  
  John Fleming 24.5000 25.87  
08/12/2024-08/14/2024 (-0.00% Undecided)
  Clay Higgins 35.9000 35.90  
  William "Bill" Cassidy 26.9000 26.90  
  Garret Graves 23.2000 23.20  
  John Fleming 11.8000 11.80  
  Eric Skrmetta 2.2000 2.20  
08/12/2024-08/14/2024 (0.10% Undecided)
  Clay Higgins 44.1000 44.14  
  William "Bill" Cassidy 36.0000 36.04  
  John Fleming 15.9000 15.92  
  Eric Skrmetta 3.9000 3.90  
08/12/2024-08/14/2024 (-0.00% Undecided)
  Clay Higgins 44.9000 44.90  
  Garret Graves 29.2000 29.20  
  John Fleming 22.0000 22.00  
  Eric Skrmetta 3.9000 3.90  
2024-11-05 18:30:00
OH US Senate
  Bernie Moreno 2,857,383 50.09%
  Sherrod Brown 2,650,949 46.47%
  Donald Kissick 195,648 3.43%
  Tariq K. Shabazz 524 0.01%
  Stephen Faris 84 0.00%
  Nathan Russell 19 0.00%
  David Allen Pastorius 13 0.00%
11/02/2024-11/04/2024 (4.00% Undecided)
  Bernie Moreno 48.4000 50.34  +0.25 +4.5920
  Sherrod Brown 47.6000 49.50  +3.03 +2.4627
TOTAL +7.0547
10/25/2024-10/28/2024 (4.80% Undecided)
  Sherrod Brown 48.0000 50.30  +3.83
  Bernie Moreno 47.2000 49.47  -0.62
2024-11-05 18:30:00
OH US President
  Donald J. Trump 3,180,116 55.14%
  Kamala Harris 2,533,699 43.93%
  Chase Oliver 28,200 0.49%
  Richard A. Duncan 12,805 0.22%
  Peter Sonski 10,197 0.18%
  Claudia De la Cruz 1,794 0.03%
  Cornel West 852 0.01%
  Shiva Ayyadurai 74 0.00%
  John Cheng 24 0.00%
  Chris Garrity 13 0.00%
  Jay Bowman 7 0.00%
  Brian Kienitz 4 0.00%
  William C. Nalbach 3 0.00%
11/02/2024-11/04/2024 (2.70% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 52.1000 53.51  -1.63 +4.0491
  Kamala Harris 45.2000 46.42  +2.49 +2.6333
TOTAL +6.6824
10/25/2024-10/28/2024 (2.70% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 51.7000 53.10  -2.04
  Kamala Harris 45.6000 46.83  +2.90
2024-11-05 20:00:00
WI US Senate
  Tammy Baldwin 1,672,777 49.33%
  Eric D. Hovde 1,643,996 48.48%
  Phillip N. Anderson 42,315 1.25%
  Thomas Leager 28,751 0.85%
  Write-In 2,922 0.09%
  John T. Schiess 26 0.00%
11/01/2024-11/03/2024 (3.70% Undecided)
  Eric D. Hovde 48.4000 50.19  +1.71 +3.4986
  Tammy Baldwin 47.9000 49.67  +0.34 +4.4738
TOTAL +7.9724
10/18/2024-10/20/2024 (3.40% Undecided)
  Eric D. Hovde 48.5000 50.15  +1.66
  Tammy Baldwin 48.1000 49.74  +0.40
09/28/2024-09/30/2024 (5.70% Undecided)
  Tammy Baldwin 48.3000 51.05  +1.72
  Eric D. Hovde 46.0000 48.62  +0.14
2024-11-05 19:00:00
MI US Senate
  Elissa Slotkin 2,712,686 48.64%
  Michael J. "Mike" Rogers 2,693,680 48.30%
  Joseph Solis-Mullen 56,697 1.02%
  Douglas P. Marsh 53,978 0.97%
  Dave Stein 41,363 0.74%
  Doug Dern 18,779 0.34%
  Valerie L. Willis 2 0.00%
  Marcus A. Irvine 1 0.00%
  James F. Chapman 1 0.00%
11/01/2024-11/03/2024 (5.30% Undecided)
  Michael J. "Mike" Rogers 47.4000 49.91  +1.61 +3.5464
  Elissa Slotkin 47.3000 49.81  +1.17 +3.8693
TOTAL +7.4157
10/18/2024-10/20/2024 (8.60% Undecided)
  Elissa Slotkin 46.4000 50.39  +1.75
  Michael J. "Mike" Rogers 45.0000 48.87  +0.57
09/28/2024-09/30/2024 (5.60% Undecided)
  Elissa Slotkin 47.4000 50.05  +1.42
  Michael J. "Mike" Rogers 47.0000 49.63  +1.33
2024-11-05 19:00:00
PA US Senate
  David H. McCormick 3,399,295 48.82%
  Bob Casey Jr. 3,384,180 48.60%
  John Thomas 89,653 1.29%
  Leila Hazou 66,388 0.95%
  Marty Selker 23,621 0.34%
  Quincy Magee 0 0.00%
  Erik Messina 0 0.00%
  Ved Dookhun 0 0.00%
  Cory Widmann 0 0.00%
11/01/2024-11/03/2024 (6.70% Undecided)
  David H. McCormick 47.4000 50.58  +1.76 +3.4898
  Bob Casey Jr. 45.9000 48.98  +0.37 +4.3958
TOTAL +7.8856
10/17/2024-10/19/2024 (6.00% Undecided)
  David H. McCormick 47.2000 50.03  +1.21
  Bob Casey Jr. 46.8000 49.61  +1.01
09/26/2024-09/29/2024 (7.00% Undecided)
  Bob Casey Jr. 47.4000 50.72  +2.12
  David H. McCormick 45.6000 48.79  -0.03
2024-11-05 18:00:00
GA US President
  Donald J. Trump 2,663,117 50.72%
  Kamala Harris 2,548,017 48.53%
  Chase Oliver 20,684 0.39%
  Jill Stein 18,229 0.35%
  Peter Sonski 730 0.01%
  Shiva Ayyadurai 37 0.00%
  Jay Bowman 30 0.00%
  Emily Mathews 19 0.00%
  President R19 Boddie 14 0.00%
  Brian Kienitz 13 0.00%
  Andre’ Ramon McNeil 9 0.00%
  Susan Buchser Lochocki 3 0.00%
  Nomusa Venita Smith 3 0.00%
10/24/2024-10/26/2024 (5.80% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 48.3000 51.10  +0.38 +4.5477
  Kamala Harris 45.9000 48.56  +0.04 +4.6148
TOTAL +9.1625
10/07/2024-10/08/2024 (8.90% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 46.2000 50.31  -0.41
  Kamala Harris 44.9000 48.90  +0.37
09/12/2024-09/15/2024 (9.00% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 46.0000 50.14  -0.58
  Kamala Harris 45.0000 49.05  +0.52
2024-11-05 21:00:00
NV US Senate
  Jacky Rosen 701,105 47.87%
  Sam Brown 677,046 46.22%
  None of These Candidates 44,380 3.03%
  Janine Hansen 21,316 1.46%
  Chris Cunningham 20,881 1.43%
10/25/2024-10/28/2024 (8.50% Undecided)
  Jacky Rosen 46.7000 50.67  +2.80 +2.7209
  Sam Brown 44.8000 48.61  +2.38 +2.8770
TOTAL +5.5978
10/10/2024-10/13/2024 (9.40% Undecided)
  Jacky Rosen 47.5000 51.97  +4.10
  Sam Brown 43.1000 47.15  +0.93
09/11/2024-09/13/2024 (11.40% Undecided)
  Jacky Rosen 48.2000 53.69  +5.83
  Sam Brown 40.4000 45.01  -1.22
2024-11-05 21:00:00
AZ US Senate
  Ruben M. Gallego 1,676,335 50.06%
  Kari Lake 1,595,761 47.65%
  Eduardo Quintana 75,868 2.27%
  Sarah Williams 535 0.02%
  Christopher Beckett 103 0.00%
  Steven Cavin Sanders 92 0.00%
  Jannie Prosser 82 0.00%
  Shawn Petty 24 0.00%
  David Samuel Bozic 12 0.00%
  Benjamin Rodriguez 2 0.00%
11/01/2024-11/03/2024 (2.50% Undecided)
  Ruben M. Gallego 49.0000 50.23  +0.17 +4.6427
  Kari Lake 48.5000 49.71  +2.06 +3.1999
TOTAL +7.8426
10/24/2024-10/26/2024 (4.40% Undecided)
  Ruben M. Gallego 49.7000 51.89  +1.83
  Kari Lake 45.9000 47.92  +0.27
10/10/2024-10/13/2024 (8.50% Undecided)
  Ruben M. Gallego 47.6000 51.65  +1.59
  Kari Lake 43.9000 47.63  -0.02
09/11/2024-09/12/2024 (9.80% Undecided)
  Ruben M. Gallego 47.2000 51.83  +1.77
  Kari Lake 43.0000 47.21  -0.44
2024-11-05 20:00:00
AZ US President
  Donald J. Trump 1,770,242 52.22%
  Kamala Harris 1,582,860 46.69%
  Jill Stein 18,319 0.54%
  Chase Oliver 17,898 0.53%
  Claudia De la Cruz 689 0.02%
  Shiva Ayyadurai 77 0.00%
  Joel Skousen 53 0.00%
  Dawanda Shelton 19 0.00%
  President R19 Boddie 4 0.00%
11/01/2024-11/03/2024 (3.70% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 49.2000 51.02  -1.20 +4.1185
  Kamala Harris 47.1000 48.84  +2.15 +3.0665
TOTAL +7.1850
10/24/2024-10/26/2024 (5.90% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 48.1000 50.94  -1.28
  Kamala Harris 46.0000 48.71  +2.02
10/10/2024-10/13/2024 (6.50% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 47.5000 50.59  -1.63
  Kamala Harris 46.0000 48.99  +2.30
09/11/2024-09/12/2024 (7.40% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 47.1000 50.59  -1.63
  Kamala Harris 45.5000 48.87  +2.18
08/06/2024-08/08/2024 (2.50% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 47.7000 48.89  -3.32
  Kamala Harris 46.5000 47.66  +0.97
  Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 3.3000 3.38  +3.38
2024-11-05 21:00:00
NV US President
  Donald J. Trump 751,205 50.59%
  Kamala Harris 705,197 47.49%
  None of These Candidates 19,625 1.32%
  Chase Oliver 6,059 0.41%
  Joel Skousen 2,754 0.19%
10/25/2024-10/28/2024 (4.60% Undecided)
  Kamala Harris 47.8000 50.00  +2.51 +2.8915
  Donald J. Trump 47.6000 49.79  -0.80 +4.2597
TOTAL +7.1512
10/10/2024-10/13/2024 (9.60% Undecided)
  Kamala Harris 45.6000 49.98  +2.48
  Donald J. Trump 44.8000 49.10  -1.49
09/11/2024-09/13/2024 (11.20% Undecided)
  Kamala Harris 45.3000 50.37  +2.88
  Donald J. Trump 43.5000 48.37  -2.22
08/06/2024-08/08/2024 (4.00% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 48.2000 50.13  -0.46
  Kamala Harris 44.8000 46.59  -0.90
  Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 3.0000 3.12  +3.12
2024-11-05 18:30:00
NC US President
  Donald J. Trump 2,898,423 50.86%
  Kamala Harris 2,715,375 47.65%
  Jill Stein 24,762 0.43%
  Chase Oliver 22,125 0.39%
  Write-In 18,936 0.33%
  Cornel West 12,099 0.21%
  Randall A. Terry 6,863 0.12%
  Claudia De la Cruz 528 0.01%
  Shiva Ayyadurai 30 0.00%
10/25/2024-10/28/2024 (4.40% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 49.4000 51.57  +0.72 +4.3367
  Kamala Harris 46.2000 48.23  +0.59 +4.1818
TOTAL +8.5184
10/10/2024-10/13/2024 (8.90% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 46.5000 50.64  -0.22
  Kamala Harris 44.6000 48.57  +0.92
09/11/2024-09/12/2024 (6.00% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 48.0000 50.88  +0.02
  Kamala Harris 46.0000 48.76  +1.11
08/06/2024-08/08/2024 (2.70% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 48.9000 50.22  -0.64
  Kamala Harris 45.2000 46.42  -1.22
  Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 3.2000 3.29  +3.29
2024-11-05 19:00:00
PA US President
  Donald J. Trump 3,543,308 50.37%
  Kamala Harris 3,423,042 48.66%
  Jill Stein 34,538 0.49%
  Chase Oliver 33,318 0.47%
11/01/2024-11/03/2024 (4.90% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 48.4000 50.77  +0.40 +4.5119
  Kamala Harris 46.7000 48.99  +0.33 +4.4327
TOTAL +8.9446
10/17/2024-10/19/2024 (10.40% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 46.3000 51.12  +0.74
  Kamala Harris 43.3000 47.80  -0.86
09/26/2024-09/29/2024 (7.20% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 47.5000 50.92  +0.55
  Kamala Harris 45.3000 48.56  -0.10
08/28/2024-08/30/2024 (8.10% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 47.0000 50.81  +0.43
  Kamala Harris 44.9000 48.54  -0.13
08/06/2024-08/08/2024 (5.90% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 45.9000 48.61  -1.76
  Kamala Harris 44.4000 47.02  -1.64
  Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 3.8000 4.02  +4.02
2024-11-05 20:00:00
MI US President
  Donald J. Trump 2,816,636 49.73%
  Kamala Harris 2,736,533 48.31%
  Jill Stein 44,607 0.79%
  Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 26,785 0.47%
  Chase Oliver 22,440 0.40%
  Cornel West 6,664 0.12%
  Randall A. Terry 6,509 0.11%
  Joseph "Joe" Kishore 2,330 0.04%
  Peter Sonski 1,212 0.02%
  Claudia De la Cruz 458 0.01%
  Cherunda Fox 8 0.00%
  Jay Bowman 4 0.00%
11/01/2024-11/03/2024 (4.80% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 47.8000 50.09  +0.37 +4.4847
  Kamala Harris 47.4000 49.68  +1.36 +3.7153
TOTAL +8.1999
10/18/2024-10/20/2024 (9.80% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 46.0000 50.51  +0.78
  Kamala Harris 44.2000 48.53  +0.22
09/28/2024-09/30/2024 (8.40% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 46.9000 50.84  +1.11
  Kamala Harris 44.7000 48.45  +0.14
08/28/2024-08/30/2024 (6.40% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 47.0000 50.01  +0.28
  Kamala Harris 46.6000 49.58  +1.27
07/15/2024-07/17/2024 (5.40% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 45.1000 47.54  -2.19
  Joe Biden 43.0000 45.32  +45.32
  Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 4.0000 4.22  +3.74
  Jill Stein 1.4000 1.48  +0.69
  Cornel West 1.1000 1.16  +1.04
2024-11-05 20:00:00
WI US President
  Donald J. Trump 1,697,626 49.60%
  Kamala Harris 1,668,229 48.74%
  Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 17,740 0.52%
  Jill Stein 12,275 0.36%
  Chase Oliver 10,511 0.31%
  Write-In 7,131 0.21%
  Randall A. Terry 4,044 0.12%
  Cornel West 2,753 0.08%
  Claudia De la Cruz 2,035 0.06%
  Peter Sonski 561 0.02%
  Doug Jenkins 12 0.00%
  Future Madam Potus 1 0.00%
11/01/2024-11/03/2024 (4.80% Undecided)
  Kamala Harris 48.2000 50.51  +1.78 +3.4709
  Donald J. Trump 47.0000 49.26  -0.34 +4.4931
TOTAL +7.9640
10/18/2024-10/20/2024 (6.60% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 46.8000 49.89  +0.29
  Kamala Harris 46.6000 49.68  +0.94
09/28/2024-09/30/2024 (6.90% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 47.1000 50.35  +0.75
  Kamala Harris 46.0000 49.17  +0.44
08/28/2024-08/30/2024 (6.50% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 47.3000 50.37  +0.78
  Kamala Harris 46.2000 49.20  +0.47
07/15/2024-07/17/2024 (-38.10% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 45.6000 28.23  -21.37
  Joe Biden 43.0000 26.62  +26.62
  Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 4.0000 2.48  +1.96
  Cornel West 1.1000 0.68  +0.60
  Jill Stein 1.0000 0.62  +0.26
  Chase Oliver 0.4000 0.25  -0.06
2024-11-05 19:00:00
US President - Popular Vote
  Donald J. Trump 77,302,580 49.80%
  Kamala Harris 75,017,613 48.32%
  Jill Stein 862,049 0.56%
  Chase Oliver 650,126 0.42%
  Write-In 209,543 0.13%
  Claudia De la Cruz 166,175 0.11%
  Cornel West 82,644 0.05%
  Peter Sonski 44,000 0.03%
  Randall A. Terry 41,294 0.03%
  Shiva Ayyadurai 28,437 0.02%
  None of These Candidates 19,625 0.01%
  Richard A. Duncan 12,805 0.01%
  Joel Skousen 12,786 0.01%
  Jay Bowman 5,975 0.00%
  Chris Garrity 5,297 0.00%
  Joseph "Joe" Kishore 4,651 0.00%
  Rachele Fruit 4,118 0.00%
  Mattie Preston 2,857 0.00%
  Lucifer "Justin Case" Everylove 2,653 0.00%
  Blake Huber 2,196 0.00%
  Michael Wood 1,144 0.00%
  Vermin Supreme 921 0.00%
  Laura Ebke 859 0.00%
  William "Doc" Stodden 364 0.00%
  Robert "Robby" Wells 359 0.00%
  Paij Boring 126 0.00%
  Jesse Cuellar 98 0.00%
  Shondra Irving 65 0.00%
  Future Madam Potus 52 0.00%
  Cherunda Fox 51 0.00%
  Raymond Scollin 51 0.00%
  John Cheng 38 0.00%
  Tom Hoefling 34 0.00%
  Steve M. Johnson 33 0.00%
  Brian Kienitz 30 0.00%
  Heather Lynn Stone 30 0.00%
  Doug Jenkins 28 0.00%
  Andre’ Ramon McNeil 28 0.00%
  Ralph Jaffe 25 0.00%
  President R19 Boddie 22 0.00%
  Kathleen Richardson 22 0.00%
  Andrew O'Donnell 20 0.00%
  Dawanda Shelton 19 0.00%
  James D. Soderna 14 0.00%
  Garry Hubbard 10 0.00%
  Bill Frankel 10 0.00%
  William C. Nalbach 8 0.00%
  James Struck 8 0.00%
  Susan Buchser Lochocki 7 0.00%
  Mary "Carol" Asher 6 0.00%
  Richard B. Mayers 2 0.00%
  Dennis Schuller 1 0.00%
03/29/2024-03/31/2024 (3.00% Undecided)
  Donald J. Trump 43.0000 44.29  -5.51 +1.0640
  Joe Biden 40.0000 41.20  +41.20 -26.4667
  Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 11.0000 11.33  +10.81 -6.1689
  Cornel West 2.0000 2.06  +2.01 -0.3338
  Jill Stein 1.0000 1.03  +0.47 +0.7252
TOTAL -31.1803
2022-12-06 18:00:00
GA US Senate - Runoff
  Raphael Warnock 1,820,633 51.40%
  Herschel Walker 1,721,244 48.60%
12/03/2022-12/05/2022 (1.50% Undecided)
  Raphael Warnock 51.1000 51.87  +0.46 +4.5463
  Herschel Walker 47.4000 48.11  -0.49 +4.3208
TOTAL +8.8671
2022-11-08 20:00:00
NY US Senate
  Charles E. "Chuck" Schumer 3,320,561 56.74%
  Joe Pinion 2,501,151 42.73%
  Diane Sare 26,844 0.46%
  Write-In 4,151 0.07%
  Luca Nascimbene 0 0.00%
  Sara J. Lobman 0 0.00%
10/27/2022-10/31/2022 (4.00% Undecided)
  Charles E. "Chuck" Schumer 51.0000 53.04  -3.70 +2.7915
  Joe Pinion 40.0000 41.60  -1.13 +3.4485
  Diane Sare 5.0000 5.20  +4.74 -2.1265
TOTAL +4.1135
2022-11-08 22:00:00
OR Governor
  Tina Kotek 917,074 46.96%
  Christine Drazan 850,347 43.54%
  Elizabeth "Betsy" Johnson 168,431 8.62%
  Donice Noelle Smith 8,051 0.41%
  R. Leon Noble 6,867 0.35%
  Write-In 2,113 0.11%
10/18/2022-10/22/2022 (4.70% Undecided)
  Christine Drazan 41.7000 43.66  +0.12 +4.1879
  Tina Kotek 40.4000 42.30  -4.66 +1.4145
  Elizabeth "Betsy" Johnson 13.2000 13.82  +5.20 -1.8169
TOTAL +3.7855
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Approval Polls Conducted
Candidate Poll (Approve/Disapprove/Don't Know)
Ralph S. Northam
10/11/2021-10/13/2021 41.8000 49.9000 8.3000
Joe Biden
11/26/2021-11/29/2021 36.3000 59.1000 4.6000
10/11/2021-10/13/2021 39.9000 58.4000 1.7000
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