He has no shot.

He definitely won't win but he'll probably pull some support by virtue of his last name. Especially among older Dems who might not know much about him but knew his father and uncles.

I don't know, he's being advised by Dennis Kucinich now. https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1644428693358407718?s=43

It's a serious bid. Whether he'll obtain the nomination is another question, but this isn't some Tom Tancredo-tier nonsense. This is a bona fide threat to Biden's political fortunes. Biden is REALLY not going to want to debate RFK Jr., irrespective of the whole deformed larynx issue.

And yes, I've come to regard the whole dreary contest between Trump and DeSantis as not worth my energies. It's my understanding that in South Dakota, registered independents can vote in the Democratic presidential primary, and if so, then I plan to be voting for RFK Jr. my own darn self.

https://archive.fo/Je0hl The poll in the above link has Kennedy at ten percent...even though his campaign doesn't officially kick off until next week (so there's been almost zero media coverage), and most people don't yet even know he's running. Yet still ten percent among Democrats.

https://archive.fo/Je0hl The poll in the above link has Kennedy at ten percent...even though his campaign doesn't officially kick off until next week (so there's been almost zero media coverage), and most people don't yet even know he's running. Yet still ten percent among Democrats. Actually 22% of Democrats oppose Biden.

https://twitter.com/TristanSnell/status/1674205873642545152

Feels like nowadays it should be standard for some QA person/campaign assistant to check photo authenticity and/or photo origin before releasing any public communication. Mistakes like these have tripped up so many politicians all over the globe. This is not a new thing and all campaigns need to do is have some discipline and controls. Then again - Covfefe.

Here's the only chance I could see him winning. A large group of Republicans dissatisified with Trumpa nd DeSantis (and there are a good number) switch over to vote for Kennedy in the Democratic primary, as well as anti-Biden Democrats, especially those voting on name recognition, and Democrats who genuinely support Kennedy. So if all those come together in enough numbers, it's possible, but the DNC would do everything to avoid that.

He is not going to win the DNC process for POTUS nomination, he could very well win a good number of delegates with the 15% proportionality rules and cause problems for the Dems as they try to run their national convention however. It represents more of a humiliation for Biden instead of any real shot at the nomination for Kennedy

All conspiracy theories lead to the same place.

Cheryl Hines has got to be loving this campaign so far

https://twitter.com/VerminSupreme/status/1684932247286116354

https://twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1707828074140602526

An Indy Presidential Run by RFK Jr. will?

Since being Not Trump is Biden's strongest selling point, Kennedy nominally hurts Biden by also not being Trump. That said, getting on the ballot is not easy for an independent so we'll see if he does so in all the swing states.

Some random thoughts: 1. RFK might have drawn enough Democratic primary vote here and there to embarrass Biden, which is less likely now. 2. Would never-Trump Republicans vote for RFK rather than Biden? It seems like if they supported Biden in 2020 they would be likely to do so again. 3. One way for RFK to gain in the polls would be if either Trump or Biden have some health issues before the election. I have three friends who don't like Kamala Harris for various reasons - their order of preference is Biden-RFK-Harris-Trump. 4. Would young Democrats who want a Gen X candidate prefer RFK over Biden? 5. Maybe EPU or someone else can weigh in on whether people on the left would be likely to vote for RFK. 6. I can't imagine many Republicans abandoning Trump for a quixotic RFK candidacy.

2. Would never-Trump Republicans vote for RFK rather than Biden? It seems like if they supported Biden in 2020 they would be likely to do so again. 1. We have to remember that Jan 6 happened after the 2020 election. Some (unfortunately few) Trump voters were turned off by this and might vote for RFK instead of Biden. 2. Some people really do vote for who they want instead of against the person they really don't want. If Trump wins in 2024 it will because a significant chunk of people vote 3rd party. And the Biden age thing is a wedge here.

Great post. Great questions. My thoughts. 2. Would never-Trump Republicans vote for RFK rather than Biden? It seems like if they supported Biden in 2020 they would be likely to do so again. I see this as RFKs target market. Republicans who would either won't cast a vote for Trump and still show up to the polls for down ballot races. And he's probably a legitimate option for Democrats in the same boat. He'll pull X% of Ds and Rs not happy with their nominee. And X% of Indies not happy with either. 3. One way for RFK to gain in the polls would be if either Trump or Biden have some health issues before the election. I have three friends who don't like Kamala Harris for various reasons - their order of preference is Biden-RFK-Harris-Trump. Agree on both. I think Harris is less popular than both Trump and Biden. 4. Would young Democrats who want a Gen X candidate prefer RFK over Biden? I honestly don't think young Democrats would go for Kennedy even if they want someone younger. I mean 69 isn't a spring chicken. ITs not like he's a whole different gen than Trump or Biden. I think they are all technically baby boomers.

The Left doesn't support RFK in the Slightest. But there is a group of people who call themselves "LEFT" that "gave coverage" for RFK Jr. I airquote both terms because they were not Leftists and they were doing everything but fellating RFK Jr the whole time. There is this wierd section on Twitter now of people who claim to be left but they almost exclusively run cover for the Right and shit on The Left and Democrats. And I don't even mean critiquing Joe Biden or Centrist Dems, these are people who claim that AOC is now no different than Joe Biden and that MTG is "Outflanking them from the Left on Ukraine" because they do not understand Foreign Policy differences between Anti-Imperialism vs Isolationism. This Bid is not affecting Biden in the slightest because NOBODY who supported RFK Jr planned on supporting Joe Biden. The same goes for people backing Cornel West or any other candidate, most people who back Indy/3rd Party especially are dissatisfied with all their options. This entire bid was just an Astroturf from the Right hoping that literally anyone could give Biden an embarrassment in the Primary and if I had to guess this is simply RFK Jr distancing himself from the Dems to open the door to being Trumps running mate to appeal to the Qanon base of the GOP

IDK why that's the segment u quoted when it really isn't related to the point ur making, in fact it kinda adds to mine. The only thing that united RFK Jr "Voters" regardless of ideology was they hated Biden and were never going to support him. His "Support" thus far in the polls has literally been name recognition and showing dissatisfaction with Biden. Support that would not last as RFK Jr makes more of his agenda known. Take a look at the big names supporting RFK Jr: Catherine Austin Fitts (Republican), David Sacks (Republican), Rob Schneider (Republican). Clearly he only can attract Right-Wingers to actually support him

And there ARE anti-vaxers on the left. I know some of them. Yeah. And they already have a candidate, Marianne Williamson

Trying to figure who RFK Jr. would pick as a running mate. He's gotta pick an R right?