| DISCUSSION |
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points) | September 29, 2022 07:53pm |
Hoo boy...
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| I:1038 | WA Indy ( 1772.59 points) | September 29, 2022 10:31pm |
I hope the Labour platform does include some electoral reform plank, perhaps introducing IRV or something like Germany's system. If they can only ever win after 12-18 years of Tory government, an alternative has to be worth considering.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | October 10, 2022 01:07pm |
Yikes on the YouGov poll. when is the last time either party polled over 50% from a reputable pollster....
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| D:1 | RP ( 5508.02 points) | October 10, 2022 02:15pm |
BrentinCO: Yikes on the YouGov poll. when is the last time either party polled over 50% from a reputable pollster....
The YouGov poll from September? :)
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| D:1 | RP ( 5508.02 points) | October 14, 2022 11:21am |
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points) | October 17, 2022 09:32am |
If she gets to an election, Liz Truss won't reach Kim Campbell levels, but she'll get close.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | October 17, 2022 12:01pm |
Whats interesting is that all of that Tory support is going to Labour. There has been no big increase overall for the LibDems.
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How many Britons could pick Sir Ed Davey out of a lineup?
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Ed Davey couldn't pick Ed Davey out of a lineup if he was the only one in it.
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| D:1 | RP ( 5508.02 points) | June 24, 2023 02:12pm |
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I would LOVE to see an outcome where the Conservatives fall to third/fourth place behind the Lib Dems, even if it's only by a couple seats.
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points) | June 26, 2023 08:12pm |
I think the Lib Dems should have a goal of supplanting the SNP as the third largest party in Parliament. Punish the Tories, hold Labour accountable. None of the Jo Swinson "future PM" stuff.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | May 22, 2024 12:05pm |
I don't expect the Tories to get above 30% of the vote, but I'll go on record now to say that if they do get over 30% - it will be quite an accomplishment.
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| D:1 | RP ( 5508.02 points) | May 22, 2024 12:55pm |
Parties here have gotten the majority with 35%
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | May 22, 2024 01:08pm |
Yeh. I guess I was referencing that things are so bad for the Tories (below 20% of the vote in some polls) for them to recover to some level of respectability in a campaign (strong opposition) would be a major accomplishment.
Don't expect it but frankly running a good campaign and outperforming dismal projections is all the Tories have at this point.
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points) | June 10, 2024 10:32am |
No matter how credible it is, a poll coming out that shows Reform ahead of the Conservatives would be the craziest thing to happen to this race. Electoral forecasts based on that showing teal splotches across the country, Conservatives backstabbing each other in the press. Would be absolute bonkers.
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points) | June 13, 2024 03:36pm |
YouGov lit the wick.
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| D:1 | RP ( 5508.02 points) | June 19, 2024 09:02am |
IndyGeorgia: YouGov lit the wick.
Thing is, the Reform UK vote is so inefficiently dispersed they still aren't likely to get a lot of seats out of that according to projections.
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points) | June 19, 2024 09:08am |
Correct. They need to be in the twenties for a lot of dominos to fall in their direction. Their vote, however, causes a lot of Conservative dominos to fall.
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5260.33 points) | June 19, 2024 02:03pm |
the problem with projecting RUK is that there's no baseline in the places where TBP didn't run in 2019
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| D:1 | RP ( 5508.02 points) | June 20, 2024 02:40pm |
And now there's a big scandal with Tory members betting on the outcome of the election. What an implosion.
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| D:1 | RP ( 5508.02 points) | June 20, 2024 03:11pm |
Right wing news org poll has Labour 35%, Reform 24%. Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 12%, Greens 8%, SNP 3% - [Link]
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points) | June 20, 2024 03:13pm |
A comedy of errors.
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RP: Right wing news org poll has Labour 35%, Reform 24%. Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 12%, Greens 8%, SNP 3% - [Link]
It's interesting to see that there is an actual, though unlikely, possibility that the Conservatives get knocked down to 4th place. That margin between the Conservatives is so close that I could see the Libs Dems squeaking just ahead of them.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | November 22, 2024 09:09pm |
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