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It could be just me but I don't see Arizona sending Gallego to Senate as a rebuke to Kari but then also sending Trump back to DC. Michigan's a slightly different story because like most stories of GOP winning, its not more votes for them, its LESS votes for Dems. But I think that a majority of the Uncommitted Slate will be voting Kamala, as they know that its the best case scenario for them. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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RP: This FOX poll is completely insane. Trump up 2 in the popular vote, Harris up 6 in the swing states.
Well, at least they aren't tweaking their weighting to make their results look like most of the other polls. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
CA Pol Junkie: Well, at least they aren't tweaking their weighting to make their results look like most of the other polls.
So what happens if Kamala wins the Electoral College while Trump wis the popular vote? Anyone think Trump won't insist that he should win because he won the popular vote? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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RP: So what happens if Kamala wins the Electoral College while Trump wis the popular vote?
Anyone think Trump won't insist that he should win because he won the popular vote? LOL... maybe Republicans would get on board for scrapping the Electoral College! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Looking weak and minimizing exposure right before the election is the last thing a campaign should be doing unless they think the alternative is even worse. Trump can't make a persuasive case for why he should be president, which is the same reason Biden was forced out of the race. Trump can't win with only his cultists - now that it is crunch time he needs to look like he has it together for his more reluctant supporters. I'm increasingly optimistic that he can't. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I can see a narrow Trump win or a narrow Harris win or a big Harris win. Seems like some demographics Harris needs are tighter than Biden, others are wider. The big question I have unanswered is there really a substantial (meaning enough to make a difference) Republicans for Harris movement. I don't know how you poll that properly and don't think we'll find that out until election day. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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BrentinCO: The big question I have unanswered is there really a substantial (meaning enough to make a difference) Republicans for Harris movement. I don't know how you poll that properly and don't think we'll find that out until election day.
Rather than focus on the polls, I look at the 2020 results and see what has changed: In Harris's favor: - There will be a few Adam Kinzinger / Liz Cheney type Republicans who either vote third party/write-in or vote for Harris on democracy / constitutional grounds but I think this group is quite small among the broader electorate. - There will be Republican women who vote for Harris based on abortion and/or just having enough of Trump. I expect this group to be much larger than the first and have a significant impact on the results. - a cohort of older voters from 2020 will be replaced by new voters who are either younger or naturalized citizens. I figure this will net Harris about 0.5 to 1 point in the margin - Biden had no ground game for GOTV in 2020 while Trump did. This time, Harris has a strong ground game while Trump's is outsourced and questionable. This could potentially have a big impact (2 points in the margin) in the swing states if the effectiveness is lopsided. - The primary enthusiasm for Biden in 2020 was that he was not Trump. Democrats have a more inspiring candidate while Trump has lost a step. Working against Harris: - Random low information "do something different" voters, but I think this is a relatively small number since Trump has been president before. I suspect these people can be strongly influenced by the tenor of the end of the campaign, voting for someone who looks like a winner or gets better press at the end (as Trump did in 2016) - Then there is what I will call the "misogyny vote", which is people (mostly but not entirely men) who consciously or not associate desirable qualities of being president like strength with being male. This is the vote Harris and Obama have been pursuing when they point out how weak Trump is. If Trump wins, this is the vote that puts him over the top. On net, I think a historic gender gap will be too much for Trump to overcome, especially if the end of his campaign looks as weak as it currently appears to be. I could be wrong though: I'm not going to bet the farm that the American people (or at least the Electoral College) won't do something deeply foolish. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Seriously though I voted “Cautiously Optimistic” I hope and believe Harris will win but I’m also being cautious because I still remember what happened in 2016. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Seems that over the last couple of weeks, Harris has stopped emphasizing economic policies in favor of January 6/threats to democracy pearl-clutching, and during this same time we have seen polling shift in Trump's favor. People who were voting for Harris based on threats to democracy were probably already in the fold; but working class voters in the Rust Belt and elsewhere are the ones with whom Harris needs to close the deal. Harris also got baited into doing way too many sit-down interviews during this time period. Part of getting your message out also means being in control of it, and the Fox News interview played into Republican narratives. Recent polling hasn't been great either. Pennsylvania keeps going back and forth, and the Gaza TikTok brainrot crowd seems like it will manifest itself in Michigan after all. The early vote in Nevada has been good for Republicans so far. On the Senate side it looks like Tester is done and Brown is next up. Maybe Texas or Nebraska will do the funny thing but I doubt it. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I can only speak for NC personally; but she seems to be making real ground down here. Way more excitement than I saw of Biden and even Trump. GRANTED I live in one of the more Blue Areas, but even in Redder areas of the state Kamala seems to be getting support. The other Swing States have other races going on that have potential to sway the results (Gallego, Casey, Rosen, Baldwin, Slotkin) meanwhile 2016 had the reverse (McCain, Johnson, Toomey, Rubio). In both cases, Michigan is/can be the outlier. No Senate Seat in 2016 and having the Senate Race not play a role in 2024. I will say I predicted that if Harper was the Nominee, Michigan was guaranteed to go Kamala, with Slotkin I can see it going either or. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Campari_007: Switch over to Cautiously Optimistic after Tony Hinchcliffe's racist comedy set. Kill Tony? I think the Republicans want to.
The irony is that the more Trump campaigns, the more he loses because he or the people who campaign with him are idiots who can't keep their mouths shut. All Harris has to do it literally nothing and she'll win. If Trump really wanted to win, he'd stop campaigning. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I tend to group them together as the four Southerly ones (GA, NC, AZ, NV) and the five Northerly ones (PA, MI, WI, MN, NH). I feel confident Trump will carry all four Southerly ones, which (assuming Trump also carries his District in Maine, and Kamala gets hers in Nebraska), results in just 268 EVs. Trump MUST also carry just one, but at least one, of the five Northerly states too. Of course, this is just the pessimistic scenario. The optimistic scenario for Trump looks better than it did the last two times. I never thought Trump had a shot in Virginia in 2016 or '20, but this time I think he just may, for example. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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E Pluribus Unum: According to him, He's going to Venezuela # Isnt Venezuela full of left wing communists ;) :O ? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rs are on track for 52-53 Senate seats and they're probably winning the House too at this rate. Longtime incumbents like Tester and Brown lost big and Casey looks like he's about to join them. Don't get me wrong, as an R-leaning person I'm absolutely elated (mainly about Rs winning the Senate & probably the House, don't really care for Trump but I wish him the best) but these results absolutely floored me the first time I saw them. Also, New Jersey within 5 points!? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Fixer: Any flips if Biden stayed in and flopped second debate? I personally believe Trump would get 400+ EV if that were to happen.
400 electoral votes would have required New York and probably one more safe blue state like Oregon to flip. Given the swing in New York as is, I suppose it could have given Biden a sweat either way. But we probably would have seen red Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico and Virginia if he had stayed in. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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1. Grand Junction CO - the city (not the metro) has gone to non-Republicans in recent years - a dramatic shift. Western Slope of CO on the way to Utah. 2. Fort Collins - Loveland - maybe not so much of a surprise. Ski areas and Colorado State. North of Denver by about 45 minutes 3. Colorado Springs - continues to head left. This once capital of Colorado conservatives last year elected a non-Republican Mayor. Will City Council elections this year furth go to the left? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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