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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | May 17, 2024 11:03am |
If a poll is commissioned by the NRCC or the DCCC is it considered an internal poll?
The OnMessage poll above was commissioned by the NRCC
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BrentinCO: If a poll is commissioned by the NRCC or the DCCC is it considered an internal poll?
The OnMessage poll above was commissioned by the NRCC
If it was leaked by design then it is not a true internal poll. (most of them).
If it was a true leak (never meant to see the light of day) then it is a True Internal.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | May 17, 2024 04:29pm |
It wasn't leaked from the campaign - so I didn't mark it as internal for that reason.
I think it was more of a case that it was leaked by the NRCC to show this was a competitive race. Its from their pollster
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| D:1 | RP ( 5508.02 points) | May 18, 2024 12:25pm |
The main issue with internal polling, at least for this site, is that they generally only release polls that are favorable for the campaign. I.E. if they take two polls and one is favorable for the campaign and one is negative for the campaign(which can happen just with honest MoE stats), they will just release the positive one - giving a skewed bent to the polling.
So for this site, if the organization paying for the poll is likely to do this, it is considered an Internal Poll.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | May 20, 2024 10:01am |
Makes sense. I've always viewed them as sorta borderline. Not always from the candidate, but released with a purpose / agenda. And definitely not an independent poll.
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| D:1 | RP ( 5508.02 points) | May 20, 2024 01:06pm |
Functionally on the site, the poll still goes into the poll average, it just halves the weight of internal polls versus non-internal polls.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | July 28, 2024 11:24am |
Joe Salazar is a leading leftist in Colorado and was a considered a candidate for this seat before he backed Caraveo in 2022.
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| CPW:352 | Ralphie ( 15115.82 points) | July 30, 2024 11:16am |
Sounds like a good way to piss away a win.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | July 30, 2024 12:32pm |
It was so tight last time and in theory this district is trending more Republican. So any loss of votes to third party candidates (Libertarian was blamed for Kirkmeyer's loss last cycle) or base not coming out, could be a difference maker.
In this race it looks like Johnson withdrew his nomination papers as they are no longer listed on the SoS website.
Also I know GOP is making a major pitch for the Libertarian to withdraw.
Even if its a head to head D vs R race, it'll still be tight.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | October 02, 2024 01:14pm |
That new Emerson poll is probably a very accurate representation of the state of the race.
Crosstabs in the press release
[Link]
Some key takeaways for me:
- Hispanics break for Caraveo, 42% to 33%
- Forty-three percent have a favorable view of Rep. Caraveo, while 40% have an unfavorable view of her. Seventeen percent have never heard of the congresswoman. Forty-nine percent have a favorable view of Gabe Evans, while 33% have an unfavorable view of him. Eighteen percent have never heard of Evans.
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BrentinCO: That new Emerson poll is probably a very accurate representation of the state of the race.
Crosstabs in the press release
[Link]
Some key takeaways for me:
- Hispanics break for Caraveo, 42% to 33%
- Forty-three percent have a favorable view of Rep. Caraveo, while 40% have an unfavorable view of her. Seventeen percent have never heard of the congresswoman. Forty-nine percent have a favorable view of Gabe Evans, while 33% have an unfavorable view of him. Eighteen percent have never heard of Evans.
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Emerson is like my Bible when it comes to polling how a race will turn out because it always seem that they're the ones who come the closest to the actual results. Most of the time anyway.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | October 02, 2024 05:38pm |
The Hispanic breakdown is eye-opening since this is the Colorado "Hispanic District". Note that both Carveo and Evans are hispanic candidates (Evans surname masking his identity). Caraveo's 9 point margin among hispanics would appear to be significant, particularly in this district.
The favorabilities of both Caraveo and Evans are surprising to me:
Caraveo 43-40 - tighter than I would have expected.
Evans 49-33 - sorta high for what I would perceive as a relatively unknown State Rep. I guess he's not as unknown as I think
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | October 03, 2024 12:40pm |
So interestingly the Colorado Community Research poll (new polling company for us) indicated that support for Prop 131 in CO-08 is 51% FOR 29% against. This is a very unexpected margin. Prop 131 - is the top 4 primary with RCV.
If this results is replicated across Colorado, the state will be implementing top 4 RCV. This with both parties opposing the measure.
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BrentinCO: So interestingly the Colorado Community Research poll (new polling company for us) indicated that support for Prop 131 in CO-08 is 51% FOR 29% against. This is a very unexpected margin. Prop 131 - is the top 4 primary with RCV.
If this results is replicated across Colorado, the state will be implementing top 4 RCV. This with both parties opposing the measure.
Reminds me of when Nevada voted on RCV. The top Democratic politicians were against it yet it passed narrowly -- but it did its best in Democratic areas.
[Link]
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | October 03, 2024 01:37pm |
I'm quite shocked by the results of that question. But we don't have much about this pollster. And honestly, it may also be a case where the negative ads have not yet started on this.
But one thing is sure, seems like Prop 131 being dead on arrival is not true and, as you point out ZT08, voters may do something different than the parties want.
Also note that Kent Thiry is going to spend a lot of money pushing this.
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| D:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1066.42 points) | October 19, 2024 10:00am |
Honestly I wouldn't be shocked if Evans won this. Caraveo has really looked shaky recently. But she may be saved by Dem turn-out. I'm honestly leaning towards this as one of the very few GOP pickups.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | November 07, 2024 10:01pm |
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | November 08, 2024 08:12pm |
Evans pulls ahead into the lead.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | November 08, 2024 08:18pm |
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Who's going to finish on top when all is said and done ?. We're about to find out.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | November 09, 2024 01:56pm |
Another update.
Adams has just under 17k to count in CD08 + 4200 ballots to cure.
Weld county 3200 ballots to cure.
Probably won't know the winner of this race until Thursday of next week.
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Caraveo should net about 2,000 votes out of the 17,000 Adams ballots so it will come down to which side gets their voters to cure their ballots.
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| D:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1066.42 points) | November 10, 2024 03:59pm |
I think Evans has this. There's a lot of Weld County to come in.
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | November 10, 2024 04:43pm |
Breaking. Caraveo Concedes. Evans is the new REPUBLICAN Congressman for CO-08
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Love it when billionaires can buy political offices to have a direct line to power......
Its AMAZING!😒
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