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I'm going to do 11 and 12 today because I forgot yesterday, lol. District Background: The 11th District is an odd one. Covering most of Monmouth County's shore line it then snakes inland a bit towards Freehold and Colts Neck, the more wealthy areas of the district. It is a swing district by nature, but it has a small Democratic tilt. It didn't really change all that much in redistricting, only getting a tad more Democratic. In 2020, it voted for Biden, but the following year Ciattarelli narrowly carried it. Senate Race: In 2021, Republicans recruited Lori Annetta for the Senate seat after popular Monmouth County Commissioner Tom Arnone declined to run. Annetta was a weak recruit, she had never ran for office and was running against Gopal, who had a meteoric rise to power and local popularity. Despite this, the red wave that hit South Jersey that year extended into Monmouth County as Gopal won by an unexpectedly close margin. Emboldened, Republicans looked to four potential candidates. Arnone was viewed as one of their best candidates. They also looked at Monmouth County Clerk Christine Giordano Hanlon, they also looked at the districts two Republican Assemblywomen Kim Eulner and Marilyn Piperno. All 5 declined, so Republicans went with Steve Dnistrian. Dnistrian was a disappointing pick at first for Republicans. Like Annetta before him, he never held elected office and would start at a serious name ID and cash disadvantage. However the Dinistrian pick has proven better than expected. While, still at a serious cash disadvantage, Dnistrian has appeared to figure 'it' out. He knows how to message, he knows how to campaign, and he knows what issues to hit on and how to do it to get different voting groups interested. Since his 2017 upset, Vin Gopal immediately became a favorite of the Democratic establishment. About 3 months into his tenure he was awarded with a position in Senate Democratic leadership, and was made a Committee Chair a year in. He's grown notably popular amongst Republicans. He is a frequent guest on Bill Spadea's NJ 101.5 show, and the pair have attended fundraisers for each other. He is also liked for his accessibility. A simple tweet by a constituent usually garners a reply of sorts by Gopal. He may be the most moderate member of the Democratic caucus seeking re-election this year as he has spent the better part of a year calling out the states sex-ed standards. Still, local Republicans detest him, seeing his presence as a threat to their power in Monmouth County at-large. Both candidates appear to be campaigning with both feet on the gas. Dnistrian has been door knocking since April, likely in an attempt to build up his name ID. Gopal has spent his time raising money and touting his record. Gopal also has the support of most public and labor unions. I'm sure this campaign will get more contentious as we get closer to November. Still, Gopal's cash edge, name recognition, and moderate talking points make him a slight favorite IMO. Assembly Race: As Gopal was held to a narrow win two years ago, his running mates lost to two Republicans Marilyn Piperno and Kim Eulner. The pair were viewed as the frontrunners to take on Gopal, but it's likely they they felt running for Assembly again was the safer bet. Democrats settled on Margie Donlon a Ocean Township Councilwoman, and Luanne Peterpaul, a former Superior Court Judge. The pair where great picks, Donlon a top vote getter in a crucial swing town, and Peterpaul is well respected by insiders of all persuasions. However since their announcements their campaign has been rocky. Donlon sought re-election to the Ocean Township Council in the towns May municipal election. This was a likely move to boost name recognition ahead of the general election. However she burned through a lot of cash, and ended up narrowly winning. The pair have been closely tying themselves to Gopal, highlighting their support for abortion, a now common campaign theme for democrats in tough races. Piperno and Eulner have joined Dnistrian at the hip and have been hammering home themes of affordability and parental rights. Prediction: Senate: Lean Democratic, Assembly: Toss-up Informational Links: Gopal, Donlon, and Peterpaul: [Link] Dnistrian, Piperno, Eulner:[Link] OC Assembly Race:[Link] OC Assembly Race 2021: [Link] OC Assembly Race 2019: [Link] OC Senate Race 2021: [Link] OC Senate Race 2017: [Link] | |||