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District Background: The 4th District is in the heart of South Jersey. Another largely working class district that has been in the hands of the Democratic party for a long time. In redistricting the 4th became more Republican than any other in the state. The old district voted for Murphy, the new one voted for Ciattarelli, the old one voted for Biden big time, the new one was a little closer. Consisting of chunks of Republican leaning areas in Gloucester, Democratic leaning areas (and one Republican town) in Camden, as well as the Buenas in Atlantic, who have been shifting towards the GOP in recent years. This district easily hosts the most competitive campaign of the year. Senate Race: It took Republicans a while to settle on a candidate. Early on it looked like South Jersey legend and former State Senator George Geist would run, but those rumors quickly dissipated. Then the GOP settled on Nick DeSilvio a union guy, veteran and Gloucester County Commissioner to run. Initially he felt like a good choice. He held elected office in the most Republican town in the district, is a Commissioner in a must win county for the GOP, and he haa a compelling backstory. This persona quickly fell apart. A number of Republicans quickly became dissatisfied with this recruit, like Ed Durr, he had a history of uncomfortable Facebook posts before being swept into office in a 2021 red wave. Those same Republicans wanted a candidate from Camden County so that if they won the GOP would have courtesy over all nominations from Camden the only county where the GOP doesn't have courtesy in South Jersey. They settled on Chris Del Borrello a former Washington Township Councilman who moved to Gloucester Township (in Camden Co.) a number of years ago. The Del Borrello v. DeSilvio campaign was much like the Durr V. Sawyer race, except for the fact the Del Borrello's have been a long and well established family in Washington Township, a crucial swing town. Del Borrello swamped DeSilvio who ran as a MAGA Conservative. There had been rumors for a number of years now that moderate State Senator Fred Madden wasn't going to seek re-election. In fact he attempted to step down in 2017, and 2021, but the South Jersey establishment wasn't really impressed with the bench to succeed him. After a narrow win in 2021 against a no show candidate, and a new district, Madden decided to call it quits instead of fight for re election. The finalists for the seat included David Mayer, a former Assemblyman, and Paul Moriarty, a sitting Assemblyman. Interestingly enough, Assemblywoman Gabriela Mosquera was absent from the discussion. Mosquera would bring more diversity to the South Jersey delegation, but her Pro-Life beliefs made her an absolutely not candidate for the progressive crowd. So with Madden, and Steve Sweeney's blessings Moriarty entered the race. Both candidates enter the race with tremendous name recognition. Moriarty has been an Assemblyman for nearly two decades, really only facing two tough bids for re-election. Del Borrello and his family have been in and out of office in Washington Township for years. The general election has already heated up early and both sides have taken to harsh criticisms of each other. Moriarty has attacked Del Borrello for his involvement in some pretty shady going ons at his father's company. Del Borrello has charged Moriarty for being apart of the states affordability crisis. They've traded barbs on offshore wind, the state budget, senior tax credits, George Norcross, and I'm sure there will be more to come. Moriarty is running as a center left liberal, while Del Borrello is running like a Mike Testa conservative... in other words, moderately pro-life, pro gun, etc. But the major talking point for both sides is affordability. This is huge in a working class district like this one, and Moriarty's endorsements from Labor is a huge boon for his campaign. However not every union is on team Moriarty which may complicate the math a bit there. Notably, the Gloucester GOP leadership isn't really fond of Del Borrello after beating their golden boy DeSilvio. So that that complicates the math as well. It's safe to assume a lot of money will be spent. South Jersey Democrats have no shortage of cash on hand, and Del Borrello had no issue fundraising in the primary. Assembly Race: DeSilvio teamed up with Michael Clark a movement conservative type from Gloucester County, and Denise Gonzales who ran for this seat 2 years prior. Del Borrello teamed up with Matt Walker, a member of the influential Local 825 union, as well as a former Buena Councilman, and Amanda Esposito a public school teacher a political newcomer. The pair blew out the DeSilvio ticket. They face Democrats Dan Hutchinson, a former Republican and Gloucester Township Councilman, and Cody Miller a member of the Monroe Township Board of Education. Hutchinson and Miller have been running an old school like campaign. With meet and greets all over the district, and corny slogans and buttons. It comes off as homey and it has a nice touch. Like Del Borrello, Walker and Esposito have taken a low key conservative route, as they criss cross the district. The path to victory for both tickets is different. For the Democrats they NEED to win Camden County, big time. Huge margins in Winslow and Gloucester Township need to be won in order to offset the newly added GOP leaning towns. For the Republicans, they need to start by running up the score in Camden Co., anything less than 42% in Gloucester, and Winslow may be a bad sign. They need to win Waterford big, this is the only true GOP leaning town in Camden, next they need to win big time in Atlantic County, and the GOP there appears to know that. Gloucester County is an an important battleground for both teams, while it's safe to assume Franklin Twp. will go for the Republicans the question is by how much. It is the only town that voted for DeSilvio in the primary and it wasn't even close, so he appears to be a favorite son. Del Borrello is probably the favorite to win Washington Township, as it has inched away from Democrats in recent years. Lastly, Monroe is a must win for both tickets, even if the GOP wins Gloucester overall, a win by Democrats in Monroe may be the dagger for their ticket. Prediction: Tossup all around. Informational Links: District 4 Dems: [Link] Del Borrello Facebook: [Link] Walker and Esposito Facebook: [Link] OC Assembly Race Primary: [Link] OC Assembly Race: [Link] OC Assembly Race 2021: [Link] OC Assembly Race 2019: [Link] OC Senate Race 2021: [Link] OC Senate Race GOP Primary: [Link] This is THE race to watch in NJ this year so feel free to add to the discussion. | |||
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