| DISCUSSION | ||||
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I wonder though what this district will look like after redistricting. | |||
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WSNJ: Will dems really have a chance here in '22?
Redistricting will answer that question imho. I'm curious to see what happens to this district when Colorado gets an eighth congressional seat. As it stands now, Republicans are favored but the right Democrat maybe could eek out a victory against the wrong Republican.. I think the jury is still out if district thinks Boebert is hella crazy. And the right Democrat isn't a liberal but a blue dog. If Garcia ran, especially because he could pull up a margin in Pueblo, would be the right Democrat. But since Valdez is running, my guess is that Garcia isn't. Both of these guys are Democrats but have been pretty independent and have bucked the party line. That would help them in the general imho. Donovan is running as a tough rancher, but she's probably seen more as a ski-country liberal. Still she will be able to raise the most money and rack up party support. I will be surprised if she isn't the nominee. Soledad is the most progressive. She'll probably make it past the caucus and onto the primary ballot. I expect the E Pluribus Unum caucus will be endorsing her and as such has absolutely no chance in the primary or general :-) Wilhelm, Smith, and Routledge are not likely to make it to primary. | |||
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But given that all these bigger name Dems are jumping in so early to CO-03, it makes me wonder if they know something about what will happen with CO-03 making it more competitive. CO-01 urban Denver -> DeGette (D) CO-02 Boulder / Front Range -> Neguese (D) CO-03 Mesa / Pueblo / Western Slope / Ski Country / Sangre de Cristo -> Boebert (R) CO-04 Weld County / Eastern Plains - > Buck (R) CO-05 Colorado Springs / El Paso Co - > Lamborn (R) CO-06 suburban Denver / Arapahoe Co - > Crow (D) CO-07 suburban Denver / Jefferson Co - > Perlmutter (D) CO-08 ????? Likely Suburban Denver / Maybe Broomfield and Larimer Co - > Lean D I think its possible to take some of the hard R counties out of Boeberts eastern plains area to give to Lamborn & Buck and take a slice of the more liberal communities in El Paso like Manitou and add them to Boebert's. Net effect would making CO-03 very competitive for a Dem. This is definitely possible. We have an independent redistricting commission, but its well...not very independent. As has been seen the unaffiliated members of the commission have been donors to democratic candidates. So, not so independent. If the independent commission favors changes that make CO-03 more competitive, this could result in a D-6, R-2 map during good years for the Dems. And probably a D-4, R-4 map during bad years. I"m expecting CO-08 to be sorta a "Fort Collins seat" taking the Dem areas of Larimer (and Larimer has been trending Dem lately - this isn't your fathers Weld County) plus suburban Denver places like Broomfield and a little bit of Adams. This will be something like the district Betsy Markey would have loved to run for re-election in 2010. If CO-03 is made to be more competitive, then CO-08, CO-07 and CO-06 probably add some Republican counties/areas but not enough for those seats to not favor Democrats. Just some random thoughts. | |||
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Sandoval got enough support at the Assembly to qualify for the ballot. | |||
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State Legislatures Big Fan: Wait, Valdez did not even try to get signatures just in case? Oof, that is a big oof.
Definitely overconfident and shows that even in CO-03 that Democrats are shifting to the left hard. | |||
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This might be the one case where money trumped other factors. Frisch is from the wealthy ski areas. I'll be interested to see county breakdowns when the votes are certified. | |||
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Entered in county results for what has been turned in to date. No real surprises. With rare exception: Ski Areas for Frisch and the old Spanish Counties going for Sandoval. | |||