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Two of us simultaneously added the Talk Business poll - could someone delete one of them?
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points) | June 14, 2020 11:42am |
We were both so eager to post the latest poll out of swing state Arkansas...
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| D:1 | RP ( 5508.02 points) | June 14, 2020 01:19pm |
The hell?
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5260.33 points) | June 14, 2020 03:17pm |
at least they have 4 1/2 months to release a more realistic poll
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I'm not convinced Arkansas is a swing state, but it makes me wonder about Missouri.
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| WmP:879 | Chronicler ( 84.45 points) | June 15, 2020 02:02pm |
Right - if Trump gets less than 55% in Arkansas he will likely lose the election, and if he loses Arkansas it has become a rout.
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| R:7114 | Kyle ( 709.19 points) | June 15, 2020 03:54pm |
Looked at an Arkansas poll from late July 2016.
Trump: 45%
Clinton: 40%
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| D:6454 | Mr. Matt ( 1766.54 points) | June 15, 2020 03:59pm |
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Hmmm I want some of what Dick Morris was smoking at the time. Although, of all the laughable predictions, like West Virginia and Louisiana, he somehow managed to get Indians wrong :)
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Indiana*
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| Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points) | June 15, 2020 10:04pm |
Maryland Republican: Indiana*
The 2008 Indiana Result is a political force majeure [Link] - totally unforeseeable at the onset of the campaign and a natural disaster for the McCain campaign. McCain had to redirect funds to buy air time in Indiana to try and save the State. You knew it was over then for McCain.
The lesson from Indiana is that there was a huge swing in Indianapolis - 13 points that made this state competitive for Obama. It looks like Selzer & Co picked up on this early in their polling. I'll be the first to say some of the some dynamics appear to be helping Biden today.
The only difference is the in every county in Indiana there was a swing to the Democrats from the Republicans in 2008 vs 2004. I don't think that exists today.
But if Trump starts buying air time in states like Indiana or Arkansas in October or sooner, then yeh I'll say this election is pretty much in the bag for Biden.
FInally, I think Iowa will move into tossup territory before Arkansas does.
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| D:1 | RP ( 5508.02 points) | June 16, 2020 02:35am |
Marris was clearly stuck in 1996.
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| D:9362 | An_62190 ( 651.47 points) | October 19, 2020 06:36pm |
Jorgensen is getting 2% in the recent poll but I can't put her in for some reason
[Link]
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points) | October 19, 2020 06:51pm |
Add her to the straw poll, and then drop her.
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5260.33 points) | October 19, 2020 08:30pm |
fixed it up.. amazing pivot by Talk Business/Hendrix
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| D:1 | RP ( 5508.02 points) | October 20, 2020 07:34am |
Guess they didn't want the bias hit after all.
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