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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points) | August 01, 2019 12:27pm |
Curious how presidential election turnout would affect a district like this one compared to 2018. Hurt or help Republicans?
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| I:9626 | Bojicat ( 912.46 points) | August 01, 2019 12:38pm |
Good question, Indy. Though we read stories that Florida's turned more 'red' recently, the handful of flipped districts like this one (especially this one, a surprise to me) suggest that Florida's blush may still be pinkish, not red-violet.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 231.02 points) | August 01, 2019 12:41pm |
It would hurt more than help with this being an area where Democrats will be doing a lot of groundwork for the presidential race.
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points) | August 01, 2019 12:47pm |
Thought so. Wish I could find 2018 results by congressional district to see how Gillum/DeSantis or Nelson/Scott fared compared to Shalala/Salazar.
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@IndyGeorgia, I think this is what you are looking for!
[Link]
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| I:9626 | Bojicat ( 912.46 points) | August 01, 2019 04:21pm |
Great find, NJ-D3!
The comparison chart that IndyGeorgia was looking for is a bit more than halfway down the page of your link. It shows the percentages in the 27th district for Shalala 51.7%/Salazar 45.8%; Gillum 54.8%/DeSantis 44.1%; and Nelson 56.1%/Scott 43.85, concluding that "Indeed in the end Shalala won by 6 points, a decent win but smaller than Gillum or Nelson in the district."
To me, that appears to make Shalala very vulnerable should the vote turn-out wind up more reddish next year.
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5260.33 points) | November 18, 2020 05:13pm |
looking at the precinct map, the change% can be noticed in the more Cuban parts of the district... also in Miami Beach, which likely didn't help Shalala much either (Biden won this district while Shalala lost)
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| I:10200 | Jeaux ( 55.71 points) | November 19, 2020 07:44am |
I think Shalala barely getting across the line in 2018 and now her losing in 2020 is proof she wasn't that great of a candidate.
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5260.33 points) | November 19, 2020 01:31pm |
of course for all the complaints about Shalala being a bad candidate for not speaking Spanish/etc... her original 2018 primary victory came because she did better in Miami than in Miami Beach.
If Kristen Rosen Gonzalez just did better outside of Miami Beach, then we'd be talking about how David Richardson was a bad candidate who lost a winnable district.
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