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DISCUSSION
 
I:9626Bojicat ( 912.46 points)October 03, 2019 11:01am
Portugal stands out among those handful of countries in Europe defying the trends of declining left to center-left parties. Costa and his "Geringonça" coalition [the Socialists, the Communists and the Left Bloc] should be set to hold onto a commanding bluff this Sunday. They've steered Portugal through an economic Scylla and Charybdis lunging from both sides these past four years and Portugal should reward them.

But to misquote Burns, the best-laid plans of mice and men often go 'errado'.

Yesterday's poll [Link] shows Costa's Socialist party's lead has collapsed by 15 points since May to 37%, her allies struggling to stay relevant at a combined 16% support.

Costa's dreams of freeing himself from his allies and taking the Assembly outright are dashed. We may be in for a bit of surprise on Sunday, with new coalitions imminent.
 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points)October 06, 2019 06:41pm
4 seats left to be allocated; all from expatriate vote (2 from Europe, 2 from rest of world).
 
I:9626Bojicat ( 912.46 points)October 07, 2019 09:17am
Nothing unexpected here. The Portuguese were certain to reward the Socialists for steering Portugal's stand-out prosperity away from a Continent-wide sea of woes (for now). Lengthening the tract of this good feeling to include overweening Assembly dominance, however, was a mite too optimistic.

These results may wind up being historic for another reason. Costa needs partners again to form a government. Accounts say he dreads the prospect of bringing back in the wearying Left Bloc and Communists. Word is that he has in mind to select the People–Animals–Nature Party as a partner (with a couple of others).

If this happens, it'll be the FIRST TIME IN HISTORY that pols from an animal rights party sit in a cabinet.
 
I:9626Bojicat ( 912.46 points)October 09, 2019 10:01am
Tough decisions ahead for Costa. The seatings are in and he's 10 seats short of majority. He could invite in the Animal party, but they just have 4 seats. He may bring in the seat from the left-wing Livre party, but you're still five seats short.

Difficult to convince the right-wing Chega, the right-of-center CDS-People's, Liberal Initiative and Alliance parties - They're more inclined to join the PSD in coalition.

I think Costa's stuck with his two old prickly partners. His pro-business policies have done wonders for Portugal. But how do you work in a Left Block and a Communist Party that promised during the campaign to nationalize everything that's left standing?