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1. To win the race, Mitsch Bush needs a big turnout by Dems in Pueblo Co to counter the margin Mesa Co Republican voters will give Boebert. So far in early voting. Pueblo - 10,967 ballots returned early, about 58% Dem of an approximate total 118,000 Registered Voters Mesa - 17,644 ballots returned early about 34% Rep, 30% Dem, 34% Unaffiliated. This from about 117,000 registered voters. The Pueblo numbers should be viewed as a disappointment for Dems. But in person early voting started today so maybe that will pick up the total numbers of early voting in Pueblo. Also maybe the Pueblo Clerk sent out ballots later than other counties. Not sure. BTW, the Mesa GOP numbers not great either. 2. Strange Boebert Ad that was Retweeted by Trump. I have absolutely no idea what she is talking about California stealing water because of the National Popular Vote Act [Link] and [Link] (which btw I oppose and voted against). I have not heard this argument made by anyone but Boebert about stealing water. I can see people very confused by this ad. Then again who says ads need to make sense - maybe it takes one thing Western Slope Coloradans hate (Californians) and one thing they are very sensitive about (Water) and roll it up into a 30 second ad. | |||
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RP: Pueblo just isn't the Democratic vote source it once was.
And a lot of those Pueblo Democrats voted for Trump in 2016. | |||
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IndyGeorgia: Not as familiar with Colorado cities; can I get a quick description of Pueblo? Been to Colorado once, and that was to SW Colorado.
Geographically, Pueblo is about 1 hour south of Colorado Springs which is about 1 hour south Denver. All are along US 25. Most would consider Pueblo in Southeast Colorado. It used to be the second most powerful Democrat city in Colorado maybe 20 - 50 years ago next to Denver. Democrats would balance their tickets with Pueblo or could rely on the regional base when running statewide in primaries. It was and still is a very heavy Democratic city / county with a city population of about 112,000 / 170,000. On the other side of the state is Grand Junction / Mesa County. Population 65,000 in city and 155,000 in county. Its now pretty Republican, used to be more competitive. Grand Junction is in what we call the Western Slope of Colorado (West of the Rocky Mountains). The Western Slope has felt a little neglected at times as there is a lot of political power and focus on the cities east of the Rockies. CO3 is a weird district as it contains Pueblo, the Western Slope, and a lot of the wealthy (and very Democratic) Ski Areas (Aspen, Vail). None of these areas is very connected politically in my opinion - or at least less connected politically than the other congressional districts. Scott Tipton, the current Congressman is from the extreme Southwest Corner of Colorado in the Durango area which is a gateway to the four corners national parks and formerly where all the metal mining processing used to happen in mining hey day. | |||
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112,315 Democrats have already voted 122,262 Republicans have already voted 128,269 Unaffiliated have already voted. If unaffiliated in the district break 55-45 for Mitsch Bush she will have a narrow victory. | |||
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If she narrows Grand Junction, rides the blue wave in CO in the Ski Area counties and Pueblo she pulls out a narrow victory. I could be wrong, but even Republican insiders are talking about a wipe out this year in CO and this race leading the way to bottom for the Party. | |||
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Mitsch Bush was helped by higher Dem turnout in the Ski Areas. I wonder what will happen with this district during Reapportionment. Colorado should get 1 more seat. | |||