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DISCUSSION
 
D:1RP ( 5508.02 points)May 07, 2018 04:45pm
Pollara took one more step in testing support. Liberal supporters who want to block Ford were asked: “And, during the campaign, if it looked like Andrea Horwath and the NDP had the best chance of stopping Doug Ford and the PCs from winning the election, how likely are you to switch your vote to Andrea Horwath and the NDP?” Fully 78 per cent of those Liberal supporters who are motivated by a desire to stop Ford said they’d probably switch their vote to the NDP in such a scenario, against only 22 per cent who said they probably wouldn’t. - [Link]
 
D:1RP ( 5508.02 points)May 16, 2018 02:13pm
CBC Poll Tracker is currently projecting Liberals at 2 seats.
 
D:1RP ( 5508.02 points)May 23, 2018 05:51pm
Second poll having the NDP with a narrow lead.
 
R:7114Kyle ( 709.19 points)May 23, 2018 06:01pm
@RP: Any indication whether or not this could spell trouble for Liberals in the General Election and in other elections? Or does it appear simply to be a Stop Ford move?
 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points)May 23, 2018 06:16pm
NDP's got the momentum right now. Would think the Liberal vote will further diminish by election day as left-of-center voters coalesce (similar to 2015 when the left wanted to oust Harper).

PC vote peaking province wide & diminishing in the 905 area (suburban Toronto): [Link]
 
D:1RP ( 5508.02 points)May 23, 2018 09:08pm
Yeah, from the polling, many people that were supporting Liberals were considering a NDP vote to stop Ford, so there could be more shifting that way. Libs could get very few seats here. But it probably wouldn't spill over to other provinces or nationally.

PCs have a structural advantage with seats, so NDP will need a bigger lead to actually win the most seats.
 
D:1RP ( 5508.02 points)May 24, 2018 10:05pm
Massive NDP surge in the leaked EKOS poll, and two other polls rumored to show similar results.

Seat projections based on this of NDP 73, PC 48, LIB 3

[Link]
 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 7748.48 points)May 24, 2018 11:00pm
PCs have blown it.
 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points)May 25, 2018 09:51pm
Don't think Christine Elliott would have blown this lead for the PCs.
 
D:1RP ( 5508.02 points)June 04, 2018 02:11pm
The newest Pollara poll changed from an all-online sample to a mixed live caller/online sample.